FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION

[garyb]

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
307 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2004

.LONG TERM (THU NGT - MON)...THE CHALLENGE WILL BE IN THE FIRST TWO
PERIODS AS COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE STATE. GFS AND UKMET INSIST ON
A SIGNIFICANT GULF LOW AS SOON AS THE COLD FRONT HITS THE GULF OF
MEXICO. THE UKMET IS SLOWER...BUT THE RESULT IS THE SAME WITH FAIRLY
DEEP SURFACE LOW APPROACHING NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SQUALL LINE TYPEFEATURE TRAILING SOUTHWARD ALONG COLD FRONT. THE ETA AND 12Z NOGAPS
HAVE A MUCH DRIER SOLUTION WITH LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT IN THE
GULF. AT THIS TIME...IT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHETHER WE WILL SEE
ONE SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER OR EVEN SOMETHING IN BETWEEN.

IF I JUST STEP BACK AND LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE...THE GFS
DEVELOPMENT IS NEARLY INSTANTANEOUS AS THE ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
5OOMB TROUGH REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO. I CAN'T HELP BUT THINK
THAT PART OF THIS IS DUE TO THE GFS TRYING TO APPLY TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT TO THIS BAROCLINIC SYSTEM. THE RELATIVELY WARM GULF
WATERS ARE PROBABLY A BIG PART OF THAT. NORMALLY...WITH A SECOND COLD
FRONT FOLLOWING SO CLOSELY BEHIND THE FIRST...AND LOW-LEVEL WINDS
REMAINING WEST TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN THE TWO COLD FRONTS...MOISTURE
RETURN WOULD BE VERY LOW AND SLOW.

I'M GOING TO STICK WITH 20 POPS FOR THIS SECOND COLD FRONT...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT IF THE GFS/UKMET SHOULD VERIFY...THINGS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT.

[dixiebreeze]

A NWS forecast to ponder.

[bigmike]

Nothing ominous here. Might bring you a lot of rain but nothing tropical.

[Josephine96]

Yes but can't squall lines produce severe weather

[Sanibel]

We hardly had a half inch last night. Nice and dry and sunny here now. Beautiful bright sun...

[Josephine96]

Cloudy day up here

[bradg]

its cloudy yet nice here, i dont think anymore storms are coming this way this year. for sure!