Preliminary Winter 2004-05 Forecast

[donsutherland1]

Nystate,

Yes, I'm including upstate New York, as well. Unfortunately, I don't have enough data to judge the LES snowfall.

[donsutherland1]

BL03,

I'm concerned that a number of storms will really intensify once the heaviest precipitation has moved out of the greater NYC area.

Once I see the later Northern Hemisphere and North American snowcover data and have a firmer idea on the NAO, I could revise those amounts.

The temperature idea is much more solid than the snowfall idea. On that, there is very strong agreement both among analog years and also the computer guidance.

[donsutherland1]

Weathermanofthefuture,

Right now, the snowfall ideas for DCA to NYC are still less firm than the temperature idea. It is possible that I erred on the side of conservatism, but at this point in time, I believe the figures are reasonable. We'll see what some of the later data suggests.

[Guest]

Very good discussion Don. Im right now having a hard time buying that the eastcoast will have a big winter from NYC Down to DC. Which i will get into later when i release my winter outlook around the first of Nov. Like yourself i am awaiting a couple of things before i make it final. My storm track idea right now favors the Midwest/Lakes and Ohio Valley. With the OV systems being jumpers which like alot of others such as yourself agrees will bode well (Thats if you like snow ofcourse) for places like Boston, MA. However i cant ignore the southern MidAtlantic from about NC north to about the DC area and points east. And why i say that is partly because of the Hurricane season and as well the weak El'Ninio set up and a few other things but those i named are the main reason.
But anyways i do have to ask what your thoughts are on the Lakes. (Mainly southern Lakes- Between Detroit and Chicago)?

[Cat5survivor]

Mr. Sutherland

Is it always a given that Minnesota has the most snow and worst winters in the world (only next to Alaska). We were about average last year but I didn't really see a mention for us in your forcast. Maybe average again (which is about all I can stand!)

[donsutherland1]

KOW,

I believe the southern Great Lakes area will see above normal snowfall this winter. I can't promise any bombs like in 1978, but there should be some good snowfalls to help build seasonal totals.

[donsutherland1]

Cat5survivor,

I believe snowfall will come out above average at Minneapolis. I didn't give a figure because there have been 3 different recording stations over the past century and this caused statistical problems. However, I do believe that snowfall will come out above average this winter for the Twin Cities.

[donsutherland1]

For those who are interested, I am estimating that IAD (Dulles International Airport) will see 20"-25" of snow this season.

This represents quite a bit more snow than I estimate for DCA. However, such differences are unknown. For example, the 5 seasons with the largest difference in snowfall between IAD and DCA are as follows:

Code: Select all

Year   DCA   IAD
1992-93   11.7   30.3
1969-70   14.0   30.2
1995-96   46.0   61.9
1968-69   9.1   23.5
1989-90   15.3   29.2


However, there were also 5 seasons in which DCA's snowfall exceeded that at IAD. Those seasons were:

Code: Select all

Year   DCA   IAD
1987-88   25.0   16.7
1964-65   17.1   16.3
2001-02   3.2   2.6
1976-77   11.1   10.6
1980-81   4.5   4.4


Note: The comparative records only go back to 1963-64.

[Cat5survivor]

Cat5survivor,

I believe snowfall will come out above average at Minneapolis. I didn't give a figure because there have been 3 different recording stations over the past century and this caused statistical problems. However, I do believe that snowfall will come out above average this winter for the Twin Cities.

Thanks

[JenyEliza]

Don,

Don't mean to seem like a dork, but I'm not knowledgeable enough about forecasts and forecasting to read your thoughts and apply them to my area with any kind of skill or accuracy.

If it wouldn't be too much of an imposition, could you tell me what you see coming up this winter for the northern GA area, specifically Metro Atlanta?

Thanks for all your hard work! And thanks in advance for helping me understand what you've forecasted and what it means to my area of the US.

Jeny

[donsutherland1]

JenyEliza,

I expect that Atlanta's seasonal snowfall will probably come out between 0.5" and 2.5". There should be a number of occasions where at least a trace of snow falls and perhaps a storm that could bring an inch or more. Most or all of the snowfall could occur during the December-January period. I do not believe that there will be a repeat of the February 26, 2004 event where 2.5" fell.

In general, Central Pacific El Niño events (those where the very warm anomalies don't extend to the eastern Pacific in Region 1+2) do not produce Atlanta's largest snowfalls. Basin-wide El Niño events (i.e., 1957-58, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92) do better, on average.

[JenyEliza]

Thanks for the quick response! It should be very interesting to see if what you predict for our area actually comes to fruition. At any rate, I am one of those Atlantan's looking for a nice snowy winter...my area saw very very little snow last year (that 2.5 inches was very cold/freezing rain in our part of town).

We shall see what old man winter brings us!

Thanks again!

Jeny

[therock1811]

I'm hoping for good snows here in Northern KY. Can keep the ice though. Ugh. I've heard that here at this college campus, the ice gets real bad.

[GAStorm]

I expect that Atlanta's seasonal snowfall will probably come out between 0.5" and 2.5". There should be a number of occasions where at least a trace of snow falls and perhaps a storm that could bring an inch or more. Most or all of the snowfall could occur during the December-January period. I do not believe that there will be a repeat of the February 26, 2004 event where 2.5" fell.

In general, Central Pacific El Niño events (those where the very warm anomalies don't extend to the eastern Pacific in Region 1+2) do not produce Atlanta's largest snowfalls. Basin-wide El Niño events (i.e., 1957-58, 1982-83, 1987-88, 1991-92) do better, on average.

Don,

Just wondering if there are any exceptions to the Central Pacific El Niño rule, and if it applies to weak El Niño years? Also, is that why you chose the December-January period for winter weather in Atlanta? Any comments on this would be appreciated!

[donsutherland1]

GAStorm,

Since 1950 when the global indices were first regularly available, the closest years to what might be exceptions were:

1951-52: 3.9"
1963-64: 3.6"

Both featured a PDO that averaged < 0 during the December-March period. Winter 2004-05 will likely see the PDO average > 0.

Also, most of the Central Pacific El Niños were weak ones.

Finally, I mentioned the December-January period, because this is when most of the accumulating snows of greater than a trace had fallen in past seasons similar to the upcoming winter in terms of the global indices.

[GAStorm]

GAStorm,

Since 1950 when the global indices were first regularly available, the closest years to what might be exceptions were:

1951-52: 3.9"
1963-64: 3.6"

Both featured a PDO that averaged < 0 during the December-March period. Winter 2004-05 will likely see the PDO average > 0.

Also, most of the Central Pacific El Niños were weak ones.

Finally, I mentioned the December-January period, because this is when most of the accumulating snows of greater than a trace had fallen in past seasons similar to the upcoming winter in terms of the global indices.

Thanks for the informative post Don! Your research is greatly appreciated!

[wxguy25]

The complete discussion can be found at: http://www.storm2k.org/don.html

Don, an extraordinary discussion, as always. I agree with basically everything you have touched on concerning the global indices, (weak EL NINO/QBO/NAO etc...) the only caveat appears to be the east pacific signal. Recall for a majority of the summer we had a strong warm pool with well above avg. SSTs in the GOA, which was one of the driving forces behind the abnormal heat and severe weather in WRN Canada/AK.

SINCE then, its all but eroded.

AUG: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2004.gif
SEP: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 4.2004.gif
OCT: http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2004.gif

My original thoughts for this winter--ESPECIALLY the 1st half of it--from the past two months bent heavily on the state of the EPAC signal being similar to 1987, 1993 and 2002. That appears unlikely at this point. In both those years the warm pool was clearly defined by this time and moving into position in the GOA.

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/PSB/EPS/SST/d ... 2.2002.gif

1987:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... 86/Oct.gif

1993:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... 93/Oct.gif

2002:
http://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/Seaso ... 02/Oct.gif

The years which do seem similar WRT the EPAC signal were 1961, 1962, 1963, 1964, 1968, 1977, and 1990 (and that translates to the winters of 1961-62, 1962-63, 1963-64, 1964-65, 1968-69, 1977-78, and 1990-91).

These winters were not boring winters by any stretch, although 1990-91 was about as popular among the eastern US snow weenies as John Kerry is among ultra right-wing conservatives, and 1968-69 was a DC screw winter.

You can go to the CDC composite page http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/composite and make the maps for yourself using Reynolds reconstructed SSTs. Just make sure you set the map projection to ALL and select the ANOMALY option.

What is unique about that set of analogs is--in the means they saw an eastward progression of the lowest heights relative to normal through the cold season. This could result in a spectacular end to winter in the EUS. And an equally spectacular start for the Midwest after having several crappy winters in a row.

Due to extenuating circumstances and persisting time constraints, I’ll only be able to issue ONE winter outlook for 2004-05, which should be out no later than NOV 15.

BTW…for anyone wondering…this is USAwx1. Nice to be back for the time being after my 5 week hiatus. I won’t be posting as much as I have been but will try to at least 3 or 4 nights a week. Just wanted everyone to know that---yes---I am still alive and well. LOL

[cycloneye]

Welcome back my friend.

[donsutherland1]

Thanks very much, GAStorm.

[donsutherland1]

Thank you for the generous compliment, USAwx1.

As you noted, the warm pool in the Gulf of Alaska has eroded significantly over the course of the summer and into the early autumn. This is a development to which I will have to give closer scrutiny when determining whether an update will be in order.

I like the idea of the winter evolving eastward with the core of winter weather being focused west of the Appalachians in December-January and then shifting to the east for February-March. Like you, I believe the Midwest will see more snow this season than last year and Chicagoans should have their faith renewed that it can snow in the Windy City.

I'll be very much looking forward to your winter outlook.

Best wishes.