Pattern-type development next week?

[x-y-no]

As pointed out in another thread, the Gulf is shut down for development for a while. The Caribbean doesn't look favorable for the next five days either, but after that it looks to me like something could start cooking in the western Caribbean in the Wednesday timeframe. None of the models jump on anything, but there should be a bit of a mid-level low and maybe some broad surface-level low pressure there as well, and there's still plenty of warm water to help fire up some convection.

The trough in the east should be lifting out around that time too, which could help relieve the shear in the region.

[Josephine96]

XY.. where do you base your statement on possible development..? does something say it could possibly happen.. I know it's too far out but still..

[x-y-no]

XY.. where do you base your statement on possible development..? does something say it could possibly happen.. I know it's too far out but still..

Just general pattern considerations. As I said, the models don't show anything developing, but if one looks, for instance, at what the GFS has in the Wednesday timeframe:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/fp0_168.shtml

the broad trough in the east and its associated upper-level flow which had dominated from now until then (and consequently prevented any development) is lifting up, and there's a general area of lower surface pressure and potential for unstability left behind in the western Carribean.

Now maybe the models are right and nothing comes of that potential. I was just pointing out the possibility.

[rdcrds]

and it is also possible that a cat 5 storm fires up next week off the coast of NY.

Will it happen NO! but Poss? Yes.So just another thread of someone bored with no storm action which is sad as we all need a long break from them.

[TS Zack]

Strong Westerlies will be over the Caribbean at that time. The better place to look is the Gulf for a left over blobl of convection of surface trough across the Gilf.

[CourierPR]

Joe Bastardi wrote yesterday, in his daily column, that development in the Western Caribbean is a possibility next week.

[Stratosphere747]

rdcrds.....I can safely say that there will be NO Cat5 storm firing up off NY next week....

And this time of year XY's thoughts are not that far-fetched..

[x-y-no]

Joe Bastardi wrote yesterday, in his daily column, that development in the Western Caribbean is a possibility next week.

So I'm not alone ...

I used to subscribe to accuweather pro and enjoyed JB's column and videos. Off and on I've thought about joining again, but there's so much good material available for free on the net (especially this place!) so it doesn't really seem worth it.

[CourierPR]

X-y-no, you are right. There is so much free stuff available and much of it right here. I am just using the 30 day trial for the end of the season to see what JB has to say. I used to enjoy his column on the free site but I refuse to pay for all the bells and whistles on the pro site.