Sept 1935 Key West Cat 5 Cane

[Stormsfury]

Crap ... I need a power point viewer ...

Microsoft Viewer Freebee..

http://www.microsoft.com/downloads/deta ... layLang=en

I found one right after I posted it ... same one that you posted ...

Thanks Aquawind ...

[Droop12]

How can anyone not believe Andrew wasnt a Cat 5 at landfall? Its painfully obivious IMO. Look at aerial shots of Homestead and Flordia City. It looks like a F3 OR F4 tornado hit those neighborhoods. Go check out the NHC assessment on Andrew. Look at those pics. Has anyone seen the pic with the plywood driven straight through a palm tree trunk? Amazing stuff. No offense c5Camille, but you have to be out of your mind to say Andrew was a borderline 3/4 at landfall. By the way, that track from weatherunderground is totally wrong.

[Stormsfury]

Droop12 is right ... the WeatherUnderground Maps have not been updated from the AOML re-analysis projects that are ongoing ...

SF

[SouthernWx]

andrew was actually more than 24 hours past peak... boarderline 3-4 at impact... documented
cat 4 at impact

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199202.asp

1) Less than one hour before landfall, USAFR hurricane hunter aircraft measured 10,000' flight level winds of 186 mph.....that equates to a sustained surface wind of 165-170 mph.

2) Satellite and radar imagery indicate hurricane Andrew continued to deepen up to the point of landfall.....with the eye diameter contracting and eyewall becoming more intense.

3) The central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter aircraft about an hour before landfall was 932 mb.
After the hurricane made landfall, several confirmed minimum pressure readings of 921-924 mb were reported by private citizens in the Homestead area.

4) About an hour AFTER Florida landfall, the hurricane hunter aircraft indicated the flight level eye temperature was 2°c WARMER than two hours earlier....an hour before landfall. That's another clear indication Andrew continued to intensify up to landfall near Homestead AFB.

5) I saw damage in the northern eyewall area consistent with strong F3/ borderline F4 TORNADO damage....an indication of wind gusts between 185-205 mph. You don't get wind gusts that strong from a 135-140 mph cat-4 hurricane. It's more consistent with a 160-170 mph cat-5.

Based on the evidence, there is no doubt my mind (and I've surveyed wind damage for over 25 years)...no doubt in Dr Landsea's mind...nor most other hurricane experts that hurricane Andrew was a category 5 hurricane....both at landfall in the Eleuthera (Bahamas), and at landfall near Homestead AFB, Florida.

[SouthernWx]

As for the 1935 Labor Day hurricane....160 kts (185 mph) is probably conservative, considering the small diameter of the eye and eyewall.

Using comparisms to similar micro-sized intense hurricanes (Charley/ 2004; Iris/ 2001), IMO the sustained winds were even stronger than 160 kts.....possibly as strong as 170-175 kt (195-200 mph) sustained....with peak gusts of 200 kt (230 mph) or more.

That type of extreme wind speed would also explain some gruesome reports from the scene.....consistent with the aftermath of a violent tornado (body parts, many missing limbs, a few reports of dead bodies literally "sandblasted" with no skin or clothing found, except for leather belts or shoes). If my theory and research are correct, and gusts reached 230 mph or more....that would be consistent with the wind speeds of a violent F4 tornado.

[Scorpion]

Wow, I cannot believe that in 1992 people thought Andrew was a borderline 3/4 at landfall. Just amazing the amount of damage. Its just amazing that Labor Day Hurricane, and scary as well. I love hurricanes, but a super storm like this is downright hell. If that thing were coming at me, I would do anything to get out of the way. A 20 mile wide F4 tornado basically. My god. What would happen to someone who stepped out in 190 mph winds?? 230 mph gusts?? Would that take down a highrise?

[Stormsfury]

The new findings definitely quantifies both our thoughts and debates from last year until now when I expected that the AOML would find 160-165 kts winds ... and leaves room for potentially stronger sustained winds ... with the statement "At LEAST 160 kts winds" ... pressure/wind relationship here applies to a 160 kt hurricane, but the Labor Day hurricane as you've stated (and I agree with 100%) isn't a normal-sized storm, aerial coverage wise ... it was a very tight and compact storm, probably much like Andrew, and with recent findings of 140 kt winds in Andrew with an MCP of 921 mb, would definitely quantify you're research ... no doubt in my mind, the Labor Day Hurricane had gusts that border on inconceivable ... likely around 200 kts (230 MPH) ...

Aside from the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane reanalysis ... several changes in the 1851-1910 original reanalysis have come to light ... including a DOWNGRADE of 2 categories to a storm that hit the GA/SC border in 1906 ...

I'll get my website updated with the new information from AOML ... ASAP as time allows ...

SF

As for the 1935 Labor Day hurricane....160 kts (185 mph) is probably conservative, considering the small diameter of the eye and eyewall.

Using comparisms to similar micro-sized intense hurricanes (Charley/ 2004; Iris/ 2001), IMO the sustained winds were even stronger than 160 kts.....possibly as strong as 170-175 kt (195-200 mph) sustained....with peak gusts of 200 kt (230 mph) or more.

That type of extreme wind speed would also explain some gruesome reports from the scene.....consistent with the aftermath of a violent tornado (body parts, many missing limbs, a few reports of dead bodies literally "sandblasted" with no skin or clothing found, except for leather belts or shoes). If my theory and research are correct, and gusts reached 230 mph or more....that would be consistent with the wind speeds of a violent F4 tornado.

[Derek Ortt]

There has not yet been a final determination on the 1935 hurricane. I was talking about this with Dr Landsea at a party on Sunday evening and ther emay be an error of +- 10KT with the current analysis, just as the Andrew value of 145 may be a bit conservative

[HurricaneBill]

There has not yet been a final determination on the 1935 hurricane. I was talking about this with Dr Landsea at a party on Sunday evening and ther emay be an error of +- 10KT with the current analysis, just as the Andrew value of 145 may be a bit conservative

Derek, just out of curiosity, is there going to be a re-analysis of EPAC systems?

[Sanibel]

A man who was knocked unconscious by the 1935 hurricane awoke in the midst of it seeing sparks showering around him. He thought he had died and gone to hell. He then realized the sparks he was seeing were sand particles being propelled so fast that they showered in sparks upon hitting solid objects. The winds had to be 200mph to do that.


I would probably safely reason that Andrew was a borderline category 4/5 that is being given the category 5 call only because of the horrendous impact it had. A friend of mine lives near the landfall area and told me one of the strangest things was trying to go somewhere and not realizing where you were because all landmarks and street signs were blown away and nothing was familiar. He said this wasn't far from where he lived and he still had no idea of where he was at times.

Andrew is a case of Gulf Stream boosting doing its full affect. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. Both the 1935 storm and Andrew are good examples of when it does.

My assessment of the damage pattern is that Andrew had a strong tornadic content as part of his personality. This probably helped him gain the upgrade - even though he was probably still a borderline 5 storm. As seen in Grenada, an upper category 4 on the end of an intensification burst can be much worse than a lower category 5 winding down (Yes, I know Ivan was 3 at that point).

Several houses were literally wiped clean off the face of the earth with Andrew by winds alone. Nothing left but a concrete slab. Unlike Charley, vegetation was totally stripped bare...

[vbhoutex]

The 1900 Galveston hurricane HAD to be a cat 5, I would think, with a storm surge such as it had.

It was a strong CAT3 if I remember correctly. The surge was so bad because there was absolutely no protection from the Gulf and the highest spot on the island was only 8 feet.

[SouthernWx]

Originally, the 1900 Galveston hurricane was rated a 120 kt (931 mb/ 27.50") cat-4....based primarily on the storm surge which indicated a hurricane of that intensity (per many hurricane books and NHC records from the past 30 yrs of my studies).

However, the recent HURDAT re-analysis of all landfalling U.S. hurricanes of that era (1851-1910) adjusted the intensity slightly....now rated officially as 936 mb/ 27.64" and max sustained winds at landfall of 125 kts (145 mph).

The slope of the GOM offshore the upper Texas coast is very shallow, so similarly to the west coast of Florida.....even a minimal cat-3 hurricane will normally produce a severe storm surge.....Alicia in 1983 causing a 10-12' surge at 962 mb/ 100 kts. A 110-115 kt/ 945 mb hurricane (similar to Ivan or Frederic) means a devastating 15' surge in that area....

If a Camille-strength (905-910 mb) hurricane were to even impact the upper Texas Coast near Galveston, the damage would be catastrophic.....both from extreme winds, and a massive 22-26' storm surge, with wind waves meaning water levels over thirty five feet high

PW

[Derek Ortt]

It apperas as if Andrew was easily a cat 5, with winds at least 145KT, a new article that may be out in next months BAMS discusses this more. 145 is likely conservative as I said earlier, due to the pressure drop in the final hour

[SouthernWx]

It apperas as if Andrew was easily a cat 5, with winds at least 145KT, a new article that may be out in next months BAMS discusses this more. 145 is likely conservative as I said earlier, due to the pressure drop in the final hour

I agree Derek.....at landfall in southeast Florida, it's a good bet Andrew was just as intense as when just east of Eleuthera the afternoon before. At that time, max 700 mb flight level winds of 170 kts were consistent with a surface wind of 153 kt (175 mph)..
At that same time, the central pressure was 922 mb (the identical central pressure as when near Homestead early on 8/24).

It's likely the flight level winds of 162 kt measured about an hour before southeast Florida landfall continued to increase to point of landfall (just as the central pressure deepened during the same time period).

PW

[vbhoutex]

If a Camille-strength (905-910 mb) hurricane were to even impact the upper Texas Coast near Galveston, the damage would be catastrophic.....both from extreme winds, and a massive 22-26' storm surge, with wind waves meaning water levels over thirty five feet high.

If this scenario happened with a track that brought the storm in anywhere from the West end of Galveston Island on down to 50 or so miles to the SW along the coast the consequences would be almost unimaginable, very similar to the worst case scenario for Tampa Bay. Galveston Bay and the rivers and bayous that empty into it would back up and to say the very least there would be MASSIVE FLOODING all over the Houston metro area. Storm surge maps for this area bring surge as much as 10 or miles inland in some areas from a CAT5. Not being an aficionado at estimating damages from such a scenario, wind and surge and flooding, I have no real way to judge the $ damage, but I would guess a true CAT5 hit in this area as described could easily approach $100M in damage.I don't even want to think about the probable loss of life!!! I PRAY WE NEVER SEE IT HERE OR ELSEWHERE!!!

[The Big Dog]

A monument to the more than 400 killed actually holds the ashes of some victims, who were cremated in a pile of wood coffins where the monument stands, in Islamorada on Upper Matecumbe Key.

It's not much to look at it from the street, and unfortunately, there aren't any real pointers to get there, except for a few signs that say "Hurricane Monument ---->" along the road. I haven't been there in a while, and last I heard, they were planning a restoration, as it was starting to crumble a little. I hope they finally did it.

But when you actually walk up to it, read the inscriptions, and realize that people are buried there -- and then realize that you're standing on or close to the spot where they died, knowing that place was pretty much wiped off the face of the earth -- well... a feeling like that always comes to me as an emptiness in the pit of my stomach. Both sympathy and dread, I guess, knowing it happened once and it could (and probably will) happen again. Same feeling you get walking through battlegrounds, although I didn't feel the same way touring Little Bighorn. That hurricane monument was somehow different. Maybe because I'm closer to it, physically and emotionally. I can't really explain it.

[AussieMark]

Not being an aficionado at estimating damages from such a scenario, wind and surge and flooding, I have no real way to judge the $ damage, but I would guess a true CAT5 hit in this area as described could easily approach $100M in damage.I don't even want to think about the probable loss of life!!! I PRAY WE NEVER SEE IT HERE OR ELSEWHERE!!!

That was a typo right

$100 Million seems awfully cheap for a category 5 to hit Galveston Bay.

Did u mean $100 Billion

[vbhoutex]

OOPS!!!!HUGE TYPO!!!!!!!!

Yes I meant $100B!! We had over $20B from Alicia and $5B from little ole TS Allison.

[Sanibel]

I suppose Andrew is a case where the winds were high enough to literally take-out the measuring devices. In this case a combination of working backwards from the working devices both to the north and south along with pressure extrapolations and damage estimations could reasonably determine the peak average.

I doubt Andrew was 175mph or other such claims simply because he would have killed many more people in those weak zoning code structures...

[SouthernWx]

I doubt Andrew was 175mph or other such claims simply because he would have killed many more people in those weak zoning code structures...

A couple of points...

1) sustained winds over 160 mph occurred over a very small area of the north eyewall. I didn't observe borderline F3/F4 damage over a swath more than 5-10 miles from north to south, and no damage that severe south of the eye.

2) 165-175 mph sustained winds and gusts in the 190-205 mph range may seen unsurvivable, but in reality....in most modern homes, a hurricane with F3 intensity tornado wind speeds (gusts between 158-206 mph) is survivable if those inside seek shelter in a small interior room away from windows and doors. I've seen many people survive strong F3...even F4 tornadoes....in Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi.

In fact, the reason most people die in F3 tornadoes....even low end F4 tornadoes isn't because of complete structural failures. It's because they didn't seek shelter in a safe place. They left the home, or stayed in an area near windows....many others die in these type tornadoes because they were in mobile homes, vehicles, and other similar weak structures (RV's, etc).

The March 27, 1994 "Palm Sunday tornado outbreak" across Georgia and Alabama was a vivid illustration of why people die needlessly in F3 and F4 tornadoes.
Twenty-two perished in northeast Alabama.....2 in vehicles, and 20 in the Goshen United Methodist Church near Piedmont. They all died when the large, poorly supported sanctuary roof and wall collapsed, crushing those beneath.
There were several areas in the church interior where everyone could have survived the storm....if only they'd knew it was coming and evacuated the dangerous portion of the structure to safer areas (also showing the serious need for NOAA weather radio or warning siren systems near such facilities. WSFO Birmingham gave over 20 minutes lead time...sadly, twenty people died...many children, and they all died needlessly

note: the killer Piedmont tornado was a borderline F3/F4 tornado with winds in the 200-220 mph range).

During the same stormy afternoon, 18 people died here in northern Georgia....from tornadoes with winds between 180-220 mph (F3/F4).
Of those 18, all except one died in mobile homes. Only one died in a home....even though many homes were destroyed...some completely leveled (but people survived.....because they knew the safest place to go, heard the early warnings, and took action).

The major reason more people didn't perish in hurricane Andrew? BECAUSE the highest storm surge was limited to a small area...and mainly affected non-residential areas.

Just my .02 cents worth.....learned from many years of wind damage research.

PW