Sept 1935 Key West Cat 5 Cane

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Stormsfury
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#41 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 14, 2004 5:58 pm

The major reason more people didn't perish in hurricane Andrew? BECAUSE the highest storm surge was limited to a small area...and mainly affected non-residential areas.


I must add that people were WELL prepared for a monster like Andrew and didn't take it lightly ... many evaucated and many others only stayed in building believed to be survivable ... the ones that stayed behind had ... a good knowledge of what to do (and the survival instinct) once their homes began to come apart ... and two, a little bit of divine intervention ...

SF
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#42 Postby HurricaneBill » Thu Oct 14, 2004 7:14 pm

I was only 11, but I remember watching the news and TWC before Hurricane Andrew made landfall.

2 days prior to landfall, Andrew was already making the front page. Everyone feared that Miami would get hit head-on.

I remember reading that they were saying it would probably hit as a Category 4, but there was the chance Andrew could reach Category 5 status.

My dad remembers that while it was over the Bahamas in the early morning hours, TWC did have an advisory saying Andrew had sustained winds of 170 mph.

The death toll was low because people heeded the warnings and evacuated. Andrew was another example about the benefits of evacuating. Yes, it can be a hassle, but it can also save your life.

Other hurricanes where evacuation is said to be the main reason for low death tolls:

Hurricane Carla: Monster Category 4 at landfall and nearly the size of Texas. Yet, the death toll of 46 is considered low because 500,000 fled the Texas coasts. At the time, this was the largest peace-time evacuation.

Hurricane Camille: Category 5 at landfall. While there is the notoriety of the Richieleu (sp?) hurricane party, the fact is that many on the Gulf Coast evacuated and prepared for Hurricane Camille. 143 fatalities occured on the Gulf Coast due to Camille's storm surge of nearly 25 feet. Considering the low lying areas of the Gulf Coast, and the damage caused by Camille, it's amazing the death toll was not higher.

Hurricane Frederic: The death toll was only 12 due to evacuating.
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#43 Postby Scorpion » Thu Oct 14, 2004 7:41 pm

Im thinking they should make a Category 6: Inconcievable Damage. Similar to the F6 on the Fujita scale. I think that the only hurricane that qualifies for that is the Labor Day 1935. I mean, if a Cat 4 or 5 enters your area, you can expect almost total destruction of mobile home parks and weak houses. In a Cat 6, total destruction of everything save a bunker.
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#44 Postby tronbunny » Thu Oct 14, 2004 8:19 pm

Scorpion..
I can certainly see your point, but if we've never studied one in our lifetime, it's hard to justify.
If such a category existed, how seriously would the general public take a cat 4 or even 5?
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Derek Ortt

#45 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:08 pm

a note about the fujita scale

it actually goes all the way up to F-12 -- Mach 1
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#46 Postby recmod » Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:18 pm

First, to clarify one thing, Andrew peaked at 150mph on the Sunday before landfall while over the Bahamas. The hurricane NEVER was classified as a Category 5 hurricane while it was an active storm. On Sunday night, August 23, the storm weakened slightly to 140 mph.
Then, early on Monday, August 24, the storm began intensifying just as it prepared to make landfall. Originally, officials declared Andrew a category 4 at landfall, with winds of 145mph and a central pressure of 922mb.
It was only after 10 years that they decided to upgrade the storm to a Category 5 at Florida landfall based on damage studies.
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#47 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Oct 14, 2004 9:27 pm

recmod wrote:First, to clarify one thing, Andrew peaked at 150mph on the Sunday before landfall while over the Bahamas. The hurricane NEVER was classified as a Category 5 hurricane while it was an active storm. On Sunday night, August 23, the storm weakened slightly to 140 mph.
Then, early on Monday, August 24, the storm began intensifying just as it prepared to make landfall. Originally, officials declared Andrew a category 4 at landfall, with winds of 145mph and a central pressure of 922mb.
It was only after 10 years that they decided to upgrade the storm to a Category 5 at Florida landfall based on damage studies.


The reanalysis revealed Andrew reached on two separate occasions, CAT 5 status ... and peaked at 150 KTS (175 MPH) 6 hours before the first landfall at Eleuthera, Bahamas ... and again over SE Florida at 145 kts (165 MPH) ... more research is currently underway at the AOML, and potential errors of +/- 10 KTS are possible with any given reanalysis ... BOTH Andrew and the Labor Day Hurricane 1935 possibly could be found down the road to have been stronger (or weaker, but IMHO, not likely)

Code: Select all

Storm ANDREW      is number  2 of the year 1992
************************************************
Month    Day   Hour    Lat.   Long.     Dir.    ----Speed-----   -----Wind------  Pressure  ------------Type-----------
August    16  18 UTC   10.8N  35.5W    -- deg   -- mph  -- kph    30 mph  45 kph  1010 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    17   0 UTC   11.2N  37.4W   280 deg   21 mph  35 kph    35 mph  55 kph  1009 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    17   6 UTC   11.7N  39.6W   285 deg   25 mph  40 kph    35 mph  55 kph  1008 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    17  12 UTC   12.3N  42.0W   285 deg   27 mph  44 kph    40 mph  65 kph  1006 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    17  18 UTC   13.1N  44.2W   290 deg   25 mph  40 kph    40 mph  65 kph  1003 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    18   0 UTC   13.6N  46.2W   285 deg   23 mph  37 kph    45 mph  75 kph  1002 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    18   6 UTC   14.1N  48.0W   285 deg   20 mph  33 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1001 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    18  12 UTC   14.6N  49.9W   285 deg   21 mph  35 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1000 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    18  18 UTC   15.4N  51.8W   295 deg   23 mph  37 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1000 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    19   0 UTC   16.3N  53.5W   300 deg   20 mph  33 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1001 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    19   6 UTC   17.2N  55.3W   300 deg   21 mph  35 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1002 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    19  12 UTC   18.0N  56.9W   300 deg   19 mph  31 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1005 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    19  18 UTC   18.8N  58.3W   300 deg   17 mph  27 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1007 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    20   0 UTC   19.8N  59.3W   315 deg   14 mph  24 kph    45 mph  75 kph  1011 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    20   6 UTC   20.7N  60.0W   325 deg   12 mph  20 kph    45 mph  75 kph  1013 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    20  12 UTC   21.7N  60.7W   325 deg   12 mph  20 kph    45 mph  75 kph  1015 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    20  18 UTC   22.5N  61.5W   315 deg   11 mph  18 kph    45 mph  75 kph  1014 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    21   0 UTC   23.2N  62.4W   310 deg   11 mph  18 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1014 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    21   6 UTC   23.9N  63.3W   310 deg   11 mph  18 kph    50 mph  85 kph  1010 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    21  12 UTC   24.4N  64.2W   300 deg   10 mph  16 kph    60 mph  95 kph  1007 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    21  18 UTC   24.8N  64.9W   300 deg    8 mph  12 kph    60 mph  95 kph  1004 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    22   0 UTC   25.3N  65.9W   300 deg   11 mph  18 kph    65 mph 100 kph  1000 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    22   6 UTC   25.6N  67.0W   285 deg   11 mph  18 kph    75 mph 120 kph   994 mb   Hurricane - Category 1       
August    22  12 UTC   25.8N  68.3W   280 deg   12 mph  20 kph    90 mph 150 kph   981 mb   Hurricane - Category 1       
August    22  18 UTC   25.7N  69.7W   265 deg   13 mph  22 kph   110 mph 175 kph   969 mb   Hurricane - Category 2       
August    23   0 UTC   25.6N  71.1W   265 deg   13 mph  22 kph   125 mph 205 kph   961 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 3 
August    23   6 UTC   25.5N  72.5W   265 deg   13 mph  22 kph   150 mph 240 kph   947 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    23  12 UTC   25.4N  74.2W   265 deg   17 mph  27 kph   165 mph 270 kph   933 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 5 
August    23  18 UTC   25.4N  75.8W   270 deg   16 mph  25 kph   175 mph 280 kph   922 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 5 
August    23  21 UTC   25.4N  76.6W   270 deg   16 mph  25 kph   160 mph 260 kph   923 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** Eleuthera, Bahamas
August    24   0 UTC   25.4N  77.5W   270 deg   17 mph  27 kph   145 mph 230 kph   930 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    24   1 UTC   25.4N  77.8W   270 deg   17 mph  27 kph   150 mph 240 kph   931 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 *** Berry Island, Bahamas
August    24   6 UTC   25.4N  79.3W   270 deg   18 mph  29 kph   150 mph 240 kph   937 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    24   9 UTC   25.5N  80.3W   275 deg   19 mph  31 kph   165 mph 270 kph   922 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 5 *** SE Florida, USA
August    24  12 UTC   25.6N  81.2W   275 deg   19 mph  31 kph   130 mph 215 kph   951 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    24  18 UTC   25.8N  83.1W   275 deg   19 mph  31 kph   130 mph 215 kph   947 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    25   0 UTC   26.2N  85.0W   285 deg   19 mph  31 kph   130 mph 215 kph   943 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    25   6 UTC   26.6N  86.7W   285 deg   17 mph  27 kph   130 mph 215 kph   948 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    25  12 UTC   27.2N  88.2W   295 deg   16 mph  25 kph   140 mph 220 kph   946 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    25  18 UTC   27.8N  89.6W   295 deg   14 mph  24 kph   145 mph 230 kph   941 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    26   0 UTC   28.5N  90.5W   310 deg   11 mph  18 kph   145 mph 230 kph   937 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    26   6 UTC   29.2N  91.3W   315 deg   10 mph  16 kph   140 mph 220 kph   955 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 4 
August    26   8 UTC   29.6N  91.5W   325 deg   10 mph  16 kph   115 mph 185 kph   956 mb   Major Hurricane - Category 3 *** Louisiana, USA
August    26  12 UTC   30.1N  91.7W   340 deg   10 mph  16 kph    90 mph 150 kph   973 mb   Hurricane - Category 1       
August    26  18 UTC   30.9N  91.6W     5 deg    9 mph  14 kph    60 mph  95 kph   991 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    27   0 UTC   31.5N  91.1W    35 deg    8 mph  12 kph    40 mph  65 kph   995 mb   Tropical Storm               
August    27   6 UTC   32.1N  90.5W    40 deg    8 mph  12 kph    35 mph  55 kph   997 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    27  12 UTC   32.8N  89.6W    45 deg   11 mph  18 kph    35 mph  55 kph   998 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    27  18 UTC   33.6N  88.4W    50 deg   13 mph  22 kph    30 mph  45 kph   999 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    28   0 UTC   34.4N  86.7W    60 deg   18 mph  29 kph    25 mph  35 kph  1000 mb   Tropical Depression           
August    28   6 UTC   35.4N  84.0W    65 deg   27 mph  44 kph    25 mph  35 kph  1000 mb   Tropical Depression           
 
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Matthew5

#48 Postby Matthew5 » Thu Oct 14, 2004 10:36 pm

So Andrew, the first time was 175 mph cat5. With pressure of 933 millibars! Ivan had 910 millibars winds with 165 mph wind. While Andrew did make it down to 922 millibars at landfall. But the fact is Ivan had a lower pressure...It go's with out saying that Ivan will likely get upped a little like Isabel last year.
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#49 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 14, 2004 11:39 pm

Ivan smashed Cayman from 30 miles away.


What strikes me about that chart is that Andrew's windspeed was slightly ahead of his pressure - as if the windspeed brought the pressure down rather than the reverse. To me this says the upper was prime and vented the storm so well that it turbo-charged it and pulled the pressure down...
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#50 Postby SouthernWx » Thu Oct 14, 2004 11:44 pm

Matthew5 wrote:So Andrew, the first time was 175 mph cat5. With pressure of 933 millibars! Ivan had 910 millibars winds with 165 mph wind. While Andrew did make it down to 922 millibars at landfall. But the fact is Ivan had a lower pressure...It go's with out saying that Ivan will likely get upped a little like Isabel last year.



Nope.....Andrew was a much smaller hurricane than Ivan. The compact size of the eyewall meant a much tighter pressure gradient and higher wind speeds. Andrew actually reached 922 mb twice; first, just before impacting the Bahamas....and the second time at Florida landfall near Homestead.

A small, compact major hurricane will always have a tighter gradient than a large, sprawling hurricane....even if they have the same central pressure. For example, peak flight level winds measured during Andrew (170 kts) were nearly as strong as those found by NOAA aircraft in Gilbert's eyewall at it's peak (173 kt)....even though Gilbert's central pressure was 34 mb lower (888 mb vs 922 mb in Andrew).

That's also why micro-monster Charley had sustained winds of 150-155 mph (130-135 kt) at 941 mb and 145 mph (125 kt) at 954 mb....when a normal sized 941 mb hurricane supports 135-140 mph (120 kt), and 954 mb usually 120-125 mph (105-110 kt...or about the same intensity as Jeanne at landfall in Florida).

The smaller the hurricane's core....the stronger the winds due to the pressure gradient being tighter.

PW
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#51 Postby Sanibel » Thu Oct 14, 2004 11:54 pm

Don't forget Charley's venting frontal boundary that pulled air out of him all the way up the western Atlantic. This outflowing pull helped rev him up.

The positive side of the micro-monsters is they don't surge and tend to move fast due to less mass (total storm friction due to size). Just don't get caught near the eye like Iris, North Captiva, or Punta Gorda.


And, of course, don't forget the 1935 hurricane was a tiny one. Winds were not that high at either end of the Keys when it passed through the middle...
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#52 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:04 am

SouthernWx wrote:The smaller the hurricane's core....the stronger the winds due to the pressure gradient being tighter.

PW


That would explain why Cyclone Tracy in 1974 was so powerful.

Just out of curiosity, are there ever typhoons that are "tiny terrors"? I know typhoons can be really big, but can they be small and powerful as well?
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#53 Postby HurricaneBill » Fri Oct 15, 2004 2:06 am

Sanibel wrote:Don't forget Charley's venting frontal boundary that pulled air out of him all the way up the western Atlantic. This outflowing pull helped rev him up.


Kinda like spinning a top?
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#54 Postby AussieMark » Fri Oct 15, 2004 4:10 am

HurricaneBill wrote:
SouthernWx wrote:The smaller the hurricane's core....the stronger the winds due to the pressure gradient being tighter.

PW


That would explain why Cyclone Tracy in 1974 was so powerful.

Just out of curiosity, are there ever typhoons that are "tiny terrors"? I know typhoons can be really big, but can they be small and powerful as well?


Tracey still remains one of the our worst natural disasters.
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#55 Postby Sanibel » Fri Oct 15, 2004 11:22 am

More like the string pulling away from a top after revving it up...
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#56 Postby Aslkahuna » Fri Oct 15, 2004 3:21 pm

Yes, you can have small compact typhoons as well-the smallest one I saw was a tie between Susan (100kt) and Nora (125kt) in 1967 both of which were barely 100 miles in diameter. Vamei-the historic typhoon that formed at latitude 1.5N was even smaller. For an intense small typhoon, Supertyphoon Rita was at 878 mb and 155kt when it passed 150 nautical miles south of Guam in October 1978 yet the island didn't even experience TS Force winds. Rita later passed about 60 miles north of Clark AB yet the peak winds were only 40G58kt (however, Clark's winds seem to be systematically low for storms due to terrain influences).

Steve
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#57 Postby Aslkahuna » Fri Oct 15, 2004 5:56 pm

Have to refine my stats about Rita after looking at the track data. The storm passed less than 100 nautical miles south of Guam and the strongest winds there were 30kt. It passed about 45 nautical miles north of Clark with still 95 kt intensity (about 2 hours after crossing some hefty mountains). Rita was a bit larger than Charley but a bit smaller than Andrew.

Steve
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