Florida was very lucky this year....

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
Anonymous

Florida was very lucky this year....

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:49 am

Now, before you throw things at me, let me tell you why:

Bonnie could have been a hurricane.

Charley WAS one worst case threat. But, had it continued into Tampa (THE ERC WOULD NOT HAVE OCCURED FOR ANOTHER 4-6HRS) that 941 mb/145-150 mph would have been probably 933 mb, 160-165 mph into Tampa.

Frances was the 100 billion dollar hurricane. 140-165 mph winds with a large, wet, system on the populated east coast. Those hours of sustained 60-90 mph winds could have been hours of sustained 130-160 mph winds.

Ivan could have stayed a category 5.

Jeanne could have not gone under the ERC, and become a category 4.

In all, Frances was the big one for FL. It was avoided.
0 likes   

User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:

#2 Postby yoda » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:53 am

I don't know if Bonnie could have become a Hurricane IMO...
0 likes   

Anonymous

#3 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:55 am

Well, it was 65 mph... it came close, even had a pinhole eye for a bit.
0 likes   

User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:

#4 Postby yoda » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:57 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Well, it was 65 mph... it came close, even had a pinhole eye for a bit.


True. But didn't shear or something stop it from intensifying further?
0 likes   

HurricaneBill
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3420
Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA

#5 Postby HurricaneBill » Sat Oct 16, 2004 1:16 am

It seems like EVERY hurricane could've been worse!

Camille could've hit New Orleans.

Hugo could've been a cat5.

Andrew could have hit Miami head-on.

Opal could've been a cat5...........
0 likes   

Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Sat Oct 16, 2004 1:20 am

You know, there is alot of spectulation that Opal was a category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico. 916 mb, I think it may have been for a time. Also, many point out (THEY ARE WRONG) Opal became a category 5 over the Gulf.

As for Charley, Hurricane Charley may have been 155 mph. In any case, expect Charleys and Frances' every year...ALMOST.
0 likes   

User avatar
yoda
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 7874
Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
Contact:

#7 Postby yoda » Sat Oct 16, 2004 1:21 am

~Floydbuster wrote:You know, there is alot of spectulation that Opal was a category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico. 916 mb, I think it may have been for a time. Also, many point out (THEY ARE WRONG) Opal became a category 5 over the Gulf.

As for Charley, Hurricane Charley may have been 155 mph. In any case, expect Charleys and Frances' every year...ALMOST.


So what are you saying? Your flip-flopping... :wink: :lol:
0 likes   

User avatar
iceangel
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 478
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 1:17 am
Location: Pensacola, Fla.

#8 Postby iceangel » Sat Oct 16, 2004 1:50 am

~Floydbuster wrote:You know, there is alot of spectulation that Opal was a category 5 over the Gulf of Mexico. 916 mb, I think it may have been for a time. Also, many point out (THEY ARE WRONG) Opal became a category 5 over the Gulf.

I was awake during the early morning hours when Opal became a cat. 5 and she kept picking up speed. She was finally racing up toward the Florida Gulf Coast at about 20 or 21 miles an hour. I think it was way down near the Bay Of Campechee. My Aunt called us at 6:30 that morning and told us a cat 5 hurricane was coming, to get over to their house.
0 likes   

Scorpion

#9 Postby Scorpion » Sat Oct 16, 2004 7:53 am

I agree. Dry air saved FL 3 times. The best thing dry air did IMO was killing Frances. That would have been a monster.
0 likes   

User avatar
TS Zack
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 925
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 6:23 pm
Location: Louisiana
Contact:

#10 Postby TS Zack » Sat Oct 16, 2004 8:51 am

Key Word:

COULD and thankfully DIDN'T

All in all Florida has been devastated this year and next year who knows what will happen. Maybe North Carolina will see 5 storms or 10 storms or no storms. Could this be a trend that every year a state is hit constantly.... We don't know.

I think Ivan was the big one!!!!! Ivan is now being said to have caused more damage than Camille. Anyone who lives in New Orleas you may have seen the section where they showed the video from a rig during Ivan. They showed waves crashing up under the rig into the middle which was more than 60ft high.
0 likes   

User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:

#11 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 9:43 am

Yes thankfully none of these things came to frutation.
0 likes   

User avatar
x-y-no
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8359
Age: 65
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:14 pm
Location: Fort Lauderdale, FL

#12 Postby x-y-no » Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:00 am

God save us from such luck ...

You're right in a sense, of course. Taken individually, none of our landfalling storms was a "worst case." Frances, in particular, threatened to be very much worse, and Charley also if he had gone into Tampa.

But looking at the season as a whole, it's hard to call Florida "lucky." I will say we in South Florida were very lucky. It wouldn't have taken dramatically different conditions to drive Frances in here as a major storm.
0 likes   

Opal storm

#13 Postby Opal storm » Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:26 am

I wouldn't say Florida is "very lucky" considering the fact that lives and homes were lost.But,I do agree it could've been a lot worse.
0 likes   

User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:

#14 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:39 am

x-y-no wrote:God save us from such luck ...

You're right in a sense, of course. Taken individually, none of our landfalling storms was a "worst case." Frances, in particular, threatened to be very much worse, and Charley also if he had gone into Tampa.

But looking at the season as a whole, it's hard to call Florida "lucky." I will say we in South Florida were very lucky. It wouldn't have taken dramatically different conditions to drive Frances in here as a major storm.



Yes I to would not call floirda Lucky at all. Just lucky that these worst cases did not happen. That would of been really 10 times worse if they would have. :(
0 likes   

Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:

#15 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:40 am

Well I would think as of now...This was the "Big" year...There may be another one in the future but this far and away as of now did more damage and effected more lives than any other year ever...

And just wait till the insurance companies review and raise rates along the coast of the Tropical US...

Even those of us not hit will see some effect of higher insurance rates...This year will go down as a bigger hit to them than Andrew was...
0 likes   

User avatar
Wnghs2007
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6836
Age: 36
Joined: Wed Mar 24, 2004 11:14 pm
Location: Gwinnett-Barrow Line; Georgia
Contact:

#16 Postby Wnghs2007 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 10:43 am

Stratosphere747 wrote:Well I would think as of now...This was the "Big" year...There may be another one in the future but this far and away as of now did more damage and effected more lives than any other year ever...

And just wait till the insurance companies review and raise rates along the coast of the Tropical US...

Even those of us not hit will see some effect of higher insurance rates...This year will go down as a bigger hit to them than Andrew was...



Yes my cousin scott and his wife Eve have already experienced insurance rate hikes this year. they live in Savannha Georgia.
0 likes   

gpickett00
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 262
Joined: Thu Sep 02, 2004 8:47 pm
Location: Satellite Beach Florida
Contact:

#17 Postby gpickett00 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:14 pm

any hurricane COULD have been worse. It seems like people never actually see it when the worst case scenario comes around
0 likes   

User avatar
tronbunny
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1558
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 1:18 am
Location: Central FL

#18 Postby tronbunny » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:17 pm

Interesting point..
You're right, in that we did not get the worst case scenario on any of these storms.

I do often say that we are fortunate, personally, because our damage could have been worse.
I will NEVER take even a cat1 lightly, ever again.

We Floridians have learned a whole lot.
0 likes   

Stratosphere747
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3772
Joined: Thu Sep 11, 2003 8:34 pm
Location: Surfside Beach/Freeport Tx
Contact:

#19 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sat Oct 16, 2004 12:17 pm

Not surprised....

One thing people need to remember is they need to carefully read any policys that come in from the insurance companies...
0 likes   

Derek Ortt

#20 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Oct 16, 2004 1:37 pm

will disagree with Charley

It repiald yintensified and came inland where it was not expected to do so. Also, it hit the center of Orlando. So it missed Tampa, but devastate d another city with wind gusts over 100 m.p.h. It also brought 90-100 m.p.h. gusts to Daytona, devastating that city as well.

Frances did not spare Florida because while it weakened due to shear, it slowed, providing a longer period of wind and rain.

Jeanne narrowly missed the high pop centers, but still brought severe impacts to a very vulnerable region
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Teban54 and 297 guests