new ivan landfall info... no cat 4

[Opal storm]

Sanibel, You cant just assume that the highest winds during Ivan were only 89mph because its the only report you've seen. That was reported in Gulf Shores right? The strongest winds associated with Ivan hit between Gulf Shores/Orange Beach and Pensacola. Meaning reports from Pensacola and Gulf Shore most likely are not the strongest winds that occured. Im pretty confident that I expirenced winds sustained over 100mph (in Pensacola) the night of landfall. I probably expirenced gust near 140 judging by the hundreds of snapped trees and power poles in the area. No minimal cat 1 or weak 2 is going to pull a stop sign out of the ground and mangle it and blow it onto the roof of the building i stayed at. (I kept it as a sovenir lol) Both the sign and its metal pole were bent in odd shapes. A few blocks from where I stayed was a new gas station with a new, large awning. It was completly shredded and looked almost exactly like the one in Mike Theiss' video from Port Charlotte. Im not saying that Ivan had winds as powerful as Charley, just comparing damage. I think max sustained winds most likely were near 120mph near the water in western escambia county, eastern baldwin county. 100+mph in pensacola and about 80-90mph in gulf shores. So heres my final thinking, 115-120mph max sustained winds, with a surge of mainly 15 to possibly near 20 ft in a few unlucky places. I say possibly 20 ft because I've seen a few houses on 12ft stilts that arent there anymore.

I agree with you 100%

[Ixolib]

I agree totally with you MGC about Camille. I've did alot of research on her, and tried to locate as many pics as I could. I was unfortunate enough to witness the damage caused by an F-3/F-4 tornado east of Indianapolis, IN. When I first saw pictures of the damage from Camille I thought WOW, looks just like the damage I saw after the tornado rolled through. IMO, her damage was comparable to and upper F-3, weak 4. I'd say 185mph with gust to 210 sounds about right for Camille. I know I never would stay for a hurricane that strong. Its almost like certain death if your in a house near water. If your not near the water your house will just be picked apart by the 185mph winds.

In my continuing quest to dispel the notion of complete and utter destruction of a CAT 5 storm, I just want to point out that this (red arrow) is where I live now as well as where I lived in Camille. Not all houses were "picked apart" by the winds. In fact, the overwhelming majority of them stood up quite well unless they got the surge or were smashed by trees. And most of the homes then - and now - are of frame construction. Biloxi was in the right front quadrant, about 20 miles east of where the eye made landfall. Also, the Hwy 90 bridge leading from Biloxi to Ocean Springs looked just like the Escambia Bay bridge after Ivan!!

[Derek Ortt]

Droop,

Only the winds determine the category of a hurricane. Thus, even though Jeanne had a slightly higher pressure than did Ivan, Jeanne may have a slightly higher SS rating than does Ivan. That being said, the list of most intense hurricanes are done by pressure, not by SS rating. I know it makes no sense whatsoever

[Brent]

Opal of 1995 also reached Category Four status at peak intensity.

As I recall, for a short period of time, Opal was a cat 5 when she was down near the bay of campechee. She also started racing up to the area(21MPH) It was in the early morning hours and I was still awake while this was occuring, In fact, my Aunt called us at 6:00 in the morning and said a cat 5 hurricane was coming right at us..for us to come to her house.

Nope... peak intensity was 150 mph. 156 mph is a Cat 5.

[Droop12]

Ixolib, did you stay for Camille? From the impression I was under, I thought just about every house had major damage. Even so, I know I wouldnt be staying in my house for a 5 unless it was a dome home. I might stick it out in a secure parking garage though. That'd be an expirence.

[Droop12]

I know its not a good idea but is it possible to estimate winds by the sound it produces. Im watching an Ivan special on a local station and they just showed video a man shot as his house was comming apart and you could clearly hear the roaring winds in the background. Reminds me of the sound I heard in film shot from Hugo. And from my own expirence the sound was quite similar. I mean, this damage couldnt have been caused by anything less then 110mph winds. No matter what the duration.

[Derek Ortt]

if the sound was similar to that of Hugo, then the winds would most likely be that of category two intensity. The reason for this is because most Hugo video comes from Downtown Charleston, where the winds only reached category two intensity. I have not seen much video from McClellanville, where the cat 4 winds occurred

[Droop12]

I didnt think about that Derek. I dont know where the video was shot from, it was a guy with a camera and they where inside a house in the dark and the roof was leaking and you could just hear the roar of the winds. Very much like my expirence. The winds would get under the roof and all the ceiling tiles would just flutter all the way across the building. Throw in the fact its 1am, pitch black and the building was rockin and rollin and you could here debris pounding the south wall, I was admittedly terrified the place was coming down.
I wish there was wind gauge on top of the civic center in Pensacola, even though its about 150ft in elevation Im sure the winds were sustained at over 110 up there. They had 4 AC units larger then cars that blew off into the parking lot smashing cars. I doubt cat 1 or 2 winds are capable of that.
And why are we discounting recon reports at landfall, I heard that at landfall they estimated the winds to be 130mph...No I know they werent near Pensacola, but Im sure somewhere west of pensacola probably had winds sustained about 120+mph. I understand Ivan was wekening at landfall and for that Im grateful, its hard to believe the damage could be much worse.

[Droop12]

By the way Derek, Im curious.....Have you ever expirenced a hurricane personally? Just would like to here your expirence if you had any. Where were you during Andrew?

[Derek Ortt]

I was still in Niagara falls during Andrew.

Recon did NOT estimate 130 winds at landfall. The maximum recon can justify is 120 m.p.h. Often times, NHC will keep the winds higher than they are in reality as they want to avoid having to lower then increase the winds. Like in Jeanne... it weakened to a 65KT hurricane less than 48 hours before landfall, yet they kept it at 85KT and it seemed as if Jeanne only intensified a little as it neared land, when it was intensifying fairly rapidly. Take the advisory info that you may receive (from NHC or myself) as a rough estimate thn may not be entirely scientifically based.

My closest hurricane experience was Michelle, and when I was standing on deerfield Beach, I overestimated the winds significantly (though they wer eover 50 m.p.h. when theyw ere really 35-40. I dont count Frances, more of a nuisance making me work from home off of a dial-up connection than anything else

[Stormsfury]

if the sound was similar to that of Hugo, then the winds would most likely be that of category two intensity. The reason for this is because most Hugo idea comes from Downtown Charleston, where the winds only reached category two intensity. I have not seen much video from McClellanville, where the cat 4 winds occurred

I have seen more video than anyone in regards to Hurricane Hugo, and can clearly vouche for only high-end CAT 2 strength in Downtown Charleston ... McClellanville, SC's damage was FAR WORSE ... clearly supports the CAT 4 status ... look out where the NE quad crossed, in areas like Awendaw, Adams Run, McClellanville, etc ... complete and utter flattening of the landscape ... I have so many pictures that I could post, but no scanner to convert to a .jpg or .gif format ...

[Droop12]

I read your Hugo page on your website SF, it was very nice. So do you believe where you stayed you only recieved high end CAT 2 winds were you stayed? What type of damage did you see around your area?
I took video the whole day before Ivan hit, and the last video I shot was at 9pm, about when the transformer started blowing. After that, I was more worried about myself and family and keeping the doors from sucking open. It happened once before the worst came through and its hard to explain what it looked like. I really regret not taking video now, because I saw a few street signs pulled out of the ground and disappeared. It was hard to see anything else without light, it basically looked like a blizzard of sideways rain and debris. I had a measuring device sat in the parking lot to measure rain and I only managed to get about 2" because the rain just blew sideways all night lol. At my house in Gulf Breeze I had a wind measuring device that could measure max winds up to 90mph and after a month, I still havent found it. Good thing it was cheap.

[Ixolib]

Ixolib, did you stay for Camille? From the impression I was under, I thought just about every house had major damage. Even so, I know I wouldnt be staying in my house for a 5 unless it was a dome home. I might stick it out in a secure parking garage though. That'd be an expirence.

Yeah... we stayed. And, comparatively speaking, most (key word is most) homes did not suffer major damage. I'm certainly not endorsing this for anyone else, however...

** if you're in a sturdy, permanent (not mobile!!) structure
** if you're away from any potential for surge
** if you don't live under huge trees (specifically tall pines!!)
** if you've appropriately boarded your windows to preclude wind intrusion from flying debris

...then in most cases, your structure will survive this type of storm.

Houses that had major damage in Camille, or any other TC for that matter, typically had a fault in one or more of the bullets above. By the way... When you listen to the warnings issued by the NHC and CD mandatory evacuation notices for residents, they state exactly this in their advisories. People who don't meet the above requirements are primarily the ones who those advisories are directed at.

[iceangel]

My Grandfather had a summer cottage that was blown away in Camille, and till this day has not been located.

[Droop12]

I found some pictures of an apartment complex and houses near my house. The road there is called Bay St. and it runs parallel to the water for 3 or 4 miles and every house has extreme damage, some just arent there anymore as you see in the picture. In the upper part you see a foundation and pool but no house, and that was a large house.
I cant post a pic, so go to http://www.pensacolabeachliving.com Check pics #491-495. There are over 500 pics so you can check those out if you havent already.[/img]

[Aslkahuna]

Again I must bring up the point that the situation is different at USAF Weather Stations now than they were in the days of the old AWS. One of the big changes is that weather observing services at many Bases and airfields supported by USAF (Like Libby AAF at Fort Huachuca) are performed by civilian contractors who are likely to shut down operations whenever the Tower closes which is would do during a hurricane. Now I don't know if the Bases in FL have that arrangement or not but it's worth checking into. Also worth checking into is the time that 89 mph wind was reported and if the station did report observations throughout the entire storm. If not, there may be some observations that were taken that never got out due to comm problems-if phone lines, landlines, cell phone towers and satellite relays are taken out by the storm it's going to be a tad difficult to get your observations out. Again, it means going back to the records of the observations and the actual data.

Steve

[Derek Ortt]

the 89 m.p.h. came from Mark Sudduth, who posts here and I believe that he did report throughout the duration. NAS may have had higher winds (believe I saw a 98 sustained there), which would vouch for cat 2 in the Pensacola area, which I do believe occurred.

If there were cta 3 winds, they were likely in the eastern eye wall, which passed west of Pensacola, and were in very narrow streaks (likely a mile wide or less)

[Opal storm]

By looking at the damage,the majority of Pensacola probably experienced sustain winds from 100mph to 120mph for a couple of hours while the eye-wall was passing over.Looking at the radar when Ivan was hitting I think Pensacola saw the worst of what Ivan had to offer,and winds wern't as strong further west towards AL.So in my opinion,Ivan was 120mph at the least.

[Stormsfury]

According to the NHC and the wind profile chart, I recieved high end CAT 2 winds, which was the strongest on the western eyewall of Hugo, and the damage experienced here was very bad, but for the most part, there weren't areas that were wiped completely out ... very heavy damage, of course, mobiles homes/trailers were pretty much destroyed, mucho tree damage, etc ... All power was out during the worse portion of the storm and since Hugo occurred during pure darkness, I couldn't see anything. The winds were howling (always roaring, hissing, screaming, and shaking the ground) ... My estimations the next morning was also higher than what likely came through, but after surveying video taken during the storm and being able to view all the destruction later made me realize just how lucky this area was. Hugo, though, likely had CAT 3 winds coming through, those PROBABLY occurred ONLY in gusts ... the NHC wind profile chart of Hugo was startling and very revealing of the effects. There also appeared to be a heavy component where whirlwinds developed (very small spinups, almost like a cyclonic microburst, but not necessarily a tornado, although, one may have skipped over my house, and hit the backyard ... the metal of the new shed we had here was completely wrapped around a pine tree, while the contents INSIDE the shed (except for the powdered cement in bags) was NOT damaged ... or even blown over ... this includes a flimsy little barbeque grill, 2 bicycles, several small tools, a fishing tackle, etc ...

Most of the damage came from falling trees onto houses, downed power lines/poles, and of course, trailers didn't stand a chance ...

I read your Hugo page on your website SF, it was very nice. So do you believe where you stayed you only recieved high end CAT 2 winds were you stayed? What type of damage did you see around your area?
I took video the whole day before Ivan hit, and the last video I shot was at 9pm, about when the transformer started blowing. After that, I was more worried about myself and family and keeping the doors from sucking open. It happened once before the worst came through and its hard to explain what it looked like. I really regret not taking video now, because I saw a few street signs pulled out of the ground and disappeared. It was hard to see anything else without light, it basically looked like a blizzard of sideways rain and debris. I had a measuring device sat in the parking lot to measure rain and I only managed to get about 2" because the rain just blew sideways all night lol. At my house in Gulf Breeze I had a wind measuring device that could measure max winds up to 90mph and after a month, I still havent found it. Good thing it was cheap.

[Droop12]

Your expirence SF sounds much like mine. The wind was always whistling, roaring or howling which shook the building and sucked the door open at about midnight, way before the worst even started so it was very unsettling. The damage you describe is exactly the same here. Anything made of aluminum was most likely damaged or destroyed, including my neighbors shed which flew into my yard in one piece and did alittle tumbling. Our trees are also badly damaged. They have no leaves anymore, and barely any limbs. The rest snapped or tipped over. I think Derek is right and Pensacola most likely expirenced strong cat 2 winds. with gust well over cat3 force Im sure. oh well, im done debating...i think we've all basically reached an agreement.