Florida was very lucky this year....

[Anonymous]

What is your disagreement with Charley?

[Derek Ortt]

charley was the United States long time nightmare scenario... a storm that explodes just beofr elandfall and shifts in track. while tampa was spared, orlando took a direct hit

[tronbunny]

will disagree with Charley

It repiald yintensified and came inland where it was not expected to do so. Also, it hit the center of Orlando. So it missed Tampa, but devastate d another city with wind gusts over 100 m.p.h. It also brought 90-100 m.p.h. gusts to Daytona, devastating that city as well.

<snip>

Derek, if Charley is the worst case scenario for Central Florida, then that's not so bad..... Then I'd have nothing to get worked up about in the future, as I had no boards on my windows for that one.
It was fast-moving, which spared us a much worse nightmare.
I certainly think Charley was not the worst case.

OTOH - Jeanne, if she was a 4 at landfall...oh MY!!!

[Derek Ortt]

only thing that would have made charley worse was a larger storm, but then if it were larger, it likely wouldnt have been at the same intensity at landfall.

Jeanne may have been very close to a cat 4 at landfall. An h-wind assessment indicated the possibility of 112KT at landfall

[tronbunny]

But Derek, don't you agree that if Charley had been moving slower, there would have been more damage?
Or in reference to Orlando, if it had come in just south of Tampa and gone due east or ENE?

His angle and amount of land he had to traverse reduced the possible amount of damage.
Surely Charley could have been worse, even with wind speed and size remaining the same.

[SouthernWx]

Based on central pressure and flight level winds, it's likely hurricane Opal was a cat-5...or at least borderline cat-4/5 for a short time over the Gulf of Mexico.

Peak flight level winds at 700 mb were measured at 152 kt (175 mph) near the time the minimum central pressure of 916 mb was reached. 152 kt (175 mph) at 700 mb equates to 137 kt (157-158 mph) at the surface, so there's a valid argument that sustained surface winds reached 135-140 kt (155-160 mph) for a short time....before significant weakening began.

PW

[Derek Ortt]

i believe there was more damage from charley due to its fast motion, resulting in the strong winds moving all the way acorss the state. had it came in slower, it would have been a TS in orlando

[SouthernWx]

Derek is correct...the fast forward motion of Charley carried hurricane force winds completely across the Florida peninsula.

Hurricanes as small as Charley normally weakens rapidly after landfall....even if they are strong cat-4. If Charley had only moved at 10 mph...instead of racing across Florida at 25, winds in greater Orlando and Daytona Beach would have likely gusted to less than 70 mph (perhaps only 50 mph).

PW

[tronbunny]

Yes, given his actual track... I'd believe that.
How about a different angle of attack?
So are you suggesting that Charley is what would be worst case for Orlando?
That would be interesting.

[Stormsfury]

Absolutely correct, Derek and Perry ... Charley was being kicked along with an unheard heard trough for August ... which one, caused RELATIVE shear to be NIL ... and Charley exploded ...

Secondly, Since Charley was moving as over 20 mph to the NNE, this is the biggest reason that Charley maintained hurricane strength through the entire time it was over land in Florida... and why Orlando saw sustained hurricane force winds ...

tronbunny, Charley was Orlando's worse case scenario from a storm so far SSW b/c of the rapid movement to the NNE, and they FIRST got hit with a SVR squall line which spawned many tornadoes, and second, the NE eyewall which produced the sustained 77 mph winds with a peak gust of 105 mph ...

SF

[sfwx]

I just think it is a silly statement. With that train of thought, 911 COULD'VE been worse also. It was a devastating year to Florida. Possibly the worse we will see in a long time. It affected just about every corner of the state in one way or another. I am frustrated beyond belief wating for insurance, FEMA, contractors, etc, etc. Yes, I do have a roof over my head and I'm alive so I guess it "could've been worse"............

[HurricaneBill]

I remember looking at my laptop the night before Charley hit.

I read the latest on Charley as he was about to make landfall on Cuba. Looking at the forecast, I got a sick feeling in my stomach. I just had a feeling that even if Charley missed Tampa or did not intensify, it made no difference. I just had the feeling Charley was going to be a bad storm.

Jeanne was the storm I thought was going to fall apart before landfall on Florida.

[Wnghs2007]

Absolutely correct, Derek and Perry ... Charley was being kicked along with an unheard heard trough for August ... which one, caused RELATIVE shear to be NIL ... and Charley exploded ...

Secondly, Since Charley was moving as over 20 mph to the NNE, this is the biggest reason that Charley maintained hurricane strength through the entire time it was over land in Florida... and why Orlando saw sustained hurricane force winds ...

tronbunny, Charley was Orlando's worse case scenario from a storm so far SSW b/c of the rapid movement to the NNE, and they FIRST got hit with a SVR squall line which spawned many tornadoes, and second, the NE eyewall which produced the sustained 77 mph winds with a peak gust of 105 mph ...

SF

Thanks for the insite all three of you

[The Big Dog]

Now, before you throw things at me, let me tell you why:

Bonnie could have been a hurricane.

Charley WAS one worst case threat. But, had it continued into Tampa (THE ERC WOULD NOT HAVE OCCURED FOR ANOTHER 4-6HRS) that 941 mb/145-150 mph would have been probably 933 mb, 160-165 mph into Tampa.

Frances was the 100 billion dollar hurricane. 140-165 mph winds with a large, wet, system on the populated east coast. Those hours of sustained 60-90 mph winds could have been hours of sustained 130-160 mph winds.

Ivan could have stayed a category 5.

Jeanne could have not gone under the ERC, and become a category 4.

In all, Frances was the big one for FL. It was avoided.

Of course, it could always be worse. But on the other hand...

Frances could have stalled for another day, upwelled more cool water, and weakened to a Cat 1 or TS.

Ivan could have weakened further before coming onshore, maybe to a Cat 2. If I recall, the shear was forecast to have a greater toll than it did.

Jeanne could have totally fizzled over Haiti and been nothing.

As for Bonnie and Charley, well yeah, Bonnie could have been anything. So could countless other storms. And just because Charley underwent rapid intensification doesn't necessarily mean it would have continued for another 4-6 hours. It could have gone through an ERC, too, and dropped back to 125, perhaps. We can play could've/should've all day. When you average it out, I think what did happen is probably the mid-point of what could have happened.

[Stormsfury]

Of course, it could always be worse. But on the other hand...

Frances could have stalled for another day, upwelled more cool water, and weakened to a Cat 1 or TS.

Ivan could have weakened further before coming onshore, maybe to a Cat 2. If I recall, the shear was forecast to have a greater toll than it did.

Jeanne could have totally fizzled over Haiti and been nothing.

As for Bonnie and Charley, well yeah, Bonnie could have been anything. So could countless other storms. And just because Charley underwent rapid intensification doesn't necessarily mean it would have continued for another 4-6 hours. It could have gone through an ERC, too, and dropped back to 125, perhaps. We can play could've/should've all day. When you average it out, I think what did happen is probably the mid-point of what could have happened.

Excellent point-counterpoint ...

[Sanibel]

If Charley had come in at 9mph instead of 22mph my house stood a good chance of being smashed instead of just swiped and slightly ripped...


You don't know the aniexty I had watching TV in Miami as Charley turned towards Sanibel. We had been discussing it all night on TWC board. Because I estimated an October-strength front I was seriously looking for a hard hook into the Everglades and close pass to Miami. I was worried that I evacuated in the wrong direction.

Friday morning at my relative's house I told him "that storm is going to turn towards Sanibel." My relative scoffed and said "No, look they are saying Tampa." I said to him, "get back to me in 3 hours and we'll be watching them say Sanibel." Sure enough 3 hours later I was clenching my fists as Charley bore down on our island. Then a special report came on saying Charley had exceeded the previous Vortex reading less than an hour old and was rapidly intensifying into a 145mph category 4.

I was overjoyed to see that Charley did an unexpected wobble just offshore of Sanibel and stayed 10 miles offshore in an arc around the island. If he had gone straight he would have plowed right into Bowman's Beach, Sanibel 5-6 miles west of us giving us the 145mph core. The radar image showed that Charley had a tight core with a secondary corewall. This corewall even had a clear spot in it. I suggest this is a feature of a tight-gradient storm.

At that point I resigned myself that we had probably lost the house and all our possessions. It wasn't until reports came in slowly that we learned the 15 foot surge never materialized. Good thing Charley was quick-footed.

Up on North Captiva where the 145mph eyewall made landfall 35% of the structures have to be razed...

[Wnghs2007]

If Charley had come in at 9mph instead of 22mph my house stood a good chance of being smashed instead of just swiped and slightly ripped...


You don't know the aniexty I had watching TV in Miami as Charley turned towards Sanibel. We had been discussing it all night on TWC board. Because I estimated an October-strength front I was seriously looking for a hard hook into the Everglades and close pass to Miami. I was worried that I evacuated in the wrong direction.

Friday morning at my relative's house I told him "that storm is going to turn towards Sanibel." My relative scoffed and said "No, look they are saying Tampa." I said to him, "get back to me in 3 hours and we'll be watching them say Sanibel." Sure enough 3 hours later I was clenching my fists as Charley bore down on our island. Then a special report came on saying Charley had exceeded the previous Vortex reading less than an hour old and was rapidly intensifying into a 145mph category 4.

I was overjoyed to see that Charley did an unexpected wobble just offshore of Sanibel and stayed 10 miles offshore in an arc around the island. If he had gone straight he would have plowed right into Bowman's Beach, Sanibel 5-6 miles west of us giving us the 145mph core. The radar image showed that Charley had a tight core with a secondary corewall. This corewall even had a clear spot in it. I suggest this is a feature of a tight-gradient storm.

At that point I resigned myself that we had probably lost the house and all our possessions. It wasn't until reports came in slowly that we learned the 15 foot surge never materialized. Good thing Charley was quick-footed.

Up on North Captiva where the 145mph eyewall made landfall 35% of the structures have to be razed...

Man you really dodged a bullet. Im happy that you did

[Alacane]

Also, Ivan could have made landfall in Florida...