Floydbuster's tropic thoughts...

[Anonymous]

FLOYDBUSTER CALLING FOR DEVELOPMENT
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
I'll say what I said AND WAS RIGHT about with Matthew and Nicole.

This system is too big a mess to go away. I give it a 80% chance to develop in Otto. TS or STS, hurricane, fish or no fish, Otto will form.

As for the GFS, I agree. Not a train of invests from Africa to Yucatan, but I am sure as evident in the image above, many waves will come off and die, and turn north, develop or not. REMEMBER...Iris in 2001 was a "SHEARED WAVE" that went under the radar and got into the Caribbean...

Also, systems like Keith and Roxanne and Michelle take time to develop. Axis and waves and storms connected to the "AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER" in the SW Caribbean will move into the East Pacific, then pop up and fizzle, and pop up. If it persists, which it is doing now, I feel that RIGHT NOW it has 50/50 chance to develop.

Finally, the east coast system must be watched. Late season names could be used up to the name Shary if this season keeps going.

In all, we may see Otto, Paula, and Richard by November.

[yoda]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Hmmm.. good post... don't forget though, the GFS does like to develop fantasy lows or deepen lows too quickly.

[Anonymous]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.html

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8wvir.html

Hmmm.. good post... don't forget though, the GFS does like to develop fantasy lows or deepen lows too quickly.

Oh I know, problem is, shear int he Western Caribbean, (AND EVEN GULF) is kind of lessening. Infact, if the SW Caribbean system develops, unlike TD-14 in 2002:

Unlike that system, which had SW shear, this would have little shear, and likely an anti-cyclonic flow around it.

[Matthew5]

I don't think anything can make it through the super strong upper level wind shear over the central Atlantic...This wave or energy is being sheared...If it where to have a chance to develop. Energy would be pulled north around 35 north, then a weak low pressure, would slowly form. But the chances this time of year are very low. As for the Southwestern Caribbean is some what favable for some development...Which there is some what of low just east of central America. That might have to be watched. Look at the low pressure at 78 west...I think that might develop???

[Anonymous]

IF they all developed (DOESN'T MEAN I THINK THEY ALL WILL) but if they did:

Tropical Storm Otto in the Atlantic
Sub/Tropical Storm/Hurricane Paula off East Coast
Tropical Storm/Hurricane Richard in SW Caribbean

PLEASE...I HATE THE NAME RICHARD (GUY WHO BULLIED ME IN 8th and 9th, I got off one good punch on him once)

[TS Zack]

To many things must be right this time of year for development. Just don't see it happening! Shear will become a problem across most of the Atlantic in the next coming days. The new GFS run doesn't pick up on it anymore.

[Anonymous]

To many things must be right this time of year for development. Just don't see it happening! Shear will become a problem across most of the Atlantic in the next coming days. The new GFS run doesn't pick up on it anymore.

I mean a system like NICOLE Zack.