98L invest up for area E of islands,Will Otto form?

#21 Postby **cycloneye** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 2:58 pm

yoda wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Definitely purely tropical. A moderate tropical wave interacting with a weak upper-level low to its west. That's how a lot of tropical storms form. Nothing subtropical about it. I see no evidence of any mid or lower-level circulation this afternoon. It does look like moderate SW-WSW winds aloft over the eastern Caribbean should keep any significant system from moving into the Caribbean. If this thing does develop over the next 24-48 hours, the BAMD may have the better idea - WNW-NW then off to the north before reaching the Caribbean. If it fails to develop, then a more westerly track into increasing wind shear appears likely.

Thanks for the response Wxman57!! It is greaty appreciated!

Will this be a fish if it develops?

Yes if it develops:fishing:

#22 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:00 pm

Hope you're right, wxman57. I don't want to get hit by an OTTO! :roll:

Steve H. · #23 Postby **Steve H.** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:27 pm

wxman57 wrote:Could get interesting if BAMM pans out, but that might involve a much weaker system moving into increasing SW-WSW wind shear, so not that interesting. Just thunderstorms for the islands in that case.

Like I said, that's 120 hours out. If the BAMM has this moving westward, conditions "downstream" (Western Caribbean) could be less hostile than they are this week. We're getting into an Indian summer pattern....very warm for this time of year. I think it could get quite interesting in the western Caribbean next week.

Wnghs2007 · #24 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:46 pm

Steve H. wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Could get interesting if BAMM pans out, but that might involve a much weaker system moving into increasing SW-WSW wind shear, so not that interesting. Just thunderstorms for the islands in that case.

Like I said, that's 120 hours out. If the BAMM has this moving westward, conditions "downstream" (Western Caribbean) could be less hostile than they are this week. We're getting into an Indian summer pattern....very warm for this time of year. I think it could get quite interesting in the western Caribbean next week.

Interesting we will have to see.

Matthew5 · #25 Postby **Matthew5** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:19 pm

Come on Otto you can do it...COME ONE OTTO COME ON!!!

yoda · #26 Postby **yoda** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:24 pm

See we will. Meditate to see if we will have Otto, I will. :lol:

Scorpion · #27 Postby **Scorpion** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:11 pm

Come on Otto!! Give us a major!! Something interesting to look at!! The tropics have been dead the past month!!

yoda · #28 Postby **yoda** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:12 pm

Scorpion wrote:Come on Otto!! Give us a major!! Something interesting to look at!! The tropics have been dead the past month!!

Oh no... now you have done it... :sick:

Wnghs2007 · #29 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:19 pm

yoda wrote:See we will. Meditate to see if we will have Otto, I will.

LOL

Yoda your to funny.

Wnghs2007 · #30 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:20 pm

Scorpion wrote:Come on Otto!! Give us a major!! Something interesting to look at!! The tropics have been dead the past month!!

Uh Oh. The weather gods better not be watching this. :lol:

J/k

Wnghs2007 · #31 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:20 pm

yoda wrote:
Scorpion wrote:Come on Otto!! Give us a major!! Something interesting to look at!! The tropics have been dead the past month!!

Oh no... now you have done it...

Hehe Come on OTTO THE MAJOR. Oh wait now I have done it to....LOL

Matthew5 · #32 Postby **Matthew5** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:25 pm

Come on Otto beat your Brother Ivan upside head!!! I'm saying to you Otto you can show your brother Ivan up!!!

Wnghs2007 · #33 Postby **Wnghs2007** » Tue Oct 19, 2004 5:29 pm

Matthew5 wrote:Come on Otto beat your Brother Ivan upside head!!! I'm saying to you Otto you can show your brother Ivan up!!!

Oh Lord. ummm lol. Maybe that should be reconsidered. LOL :lol:

#34 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 7:49 am

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL982004) ON 20041020 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041020 1200 041021 0000 041021 1200 041022 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.2N 47.6W 15.3N 49.3W 17.3N 50.2W 19.3N 50.2W
BAMM 13.2N 47.6W 15.0N 49.3W 16.5N 50.5W 17.9N 50.8W
A98E 13.2N 47.6W 14.6N 49.2W 15.7N 50.6W 17.0N 51.6W
LBAR 13.2N 47.6W 15.3N 48.8W 17.4N 49.2W 18.9N 48.9W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 31KTS 35KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041022 1200 041023 1200 041024 1200 041025 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.0N 48.9W 21.7N 44.7W 18.6N 44.9W 16.4N 48.2W
BAMM 18.6N 50.7W 19.0N 51.6W 19.7N 53.4W 21.3N 52.9W
A98E 18.4N 52.1W 21.8N 52.0W 25.1N 49.9W 30.8N 44.3W
LBAR 20.0N 48.0W 20.1N 45.9W 18.7N 45.5W 18.0N 46.9W
SHIP 38KTS 39KTS 39KTS 37KTS
DSHP 38KTS 39KTS 39KTS 37KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.2N LONCUR = 47.6W DIRCUR = 315DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 11.5N LONM12 = 46.1W DIRM12 = 309DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 10.5N LONM24 = 44.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Anonymous · #35 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:00 am

Otto will be a fish if it develops. Could be a weak hurricane though. But a fish.
If the W Caribbean gets interesting, PAULA could be a strong hurricane, and no fish. Conditions are favorable, and getting better. In fact, if it develops, I would expect a Roxanne, Michelle, Keith type of system. In other words, lets just watch. Once i get my computer fixed, we may be talking about Hurricane Paula....TIME WILL TELL..

Steve H. · #36 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:22 am

ANyone see JBs writeup this am? His Video was pretty lame, discussed the "nor'easter, but no mention today of the western Caribbean. Either he's not too excited about it, or he's got an interview....noticed the jacket and tie :wink:

Josephine96 · #37 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:06 am

It has to become a "no name" before we know it's gonna develop right

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #38 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:09 am

right... typically. Unless it jumps to a TS, but the likelihood for this system to develop like that is slim.

Anonymous · #39 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:29 am

senorpepr wrote:right... typically. Unless it jumps to a TS, but the likelihood for this system to develop like that is slim.

I have to disagree Mike. You all said the same thing with the beginnings of Nicole. THAT is where I expect development. Not here, but north, maybe SE of Bermuda. STS or TS.

As for the Caribbean, I am concerned.

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #40 Postby **senorpepr** » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:43 am

~Floydbuster wrote:
senorpepr wrote:right... typically. Unless it jumps to a TS, but the likelihood for this system to develop like that is slim.

I have to disagree Mike. You all said the same thing with the beginnings of Nicole. THAT is where I expect development. Not here, but north, maybe SE of Bermuda. STS or TS.

As for the Caribbean, I am concerned.

First of all, my statement said that the chance for this system to become a tropical storm... BY SKIPPING DEPRESSION STATUS... is slim.

Furthermore, at this time, I don't see a lot of support for this system. The system looks like a trough rather than anything that would think about becoming a tropical cyclone.

As for the system moving toward Bermuda, I don't think so. I don't believe the system will be strong enough to wedge too close to the 1023mb high that is right over Bermuda.

Moreover, this system will have a very hard time moving to the SE of Bermuda. Wind shear aloft is VERY high and does not support development.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8shr.GIF

The only way, IMO, for this system to survive is if it scoots along the South American coast and makes it's way into the SW Caribbean.

98L invest up for area E of islands,Will Otto form?

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