a very interesting TWD: twin developments possible

[weatherwindow]

the 805pm TWD suggests the possibility of two concurrent trop systems...the first, continuing suggestion of development in the sw caribbean in the late weekend/early week timeframe...the second, a fairly rare development east of the windwards this weekend. INVEST 98L is being highlited in the guidance as the upper low, west of the wave, dissipates and ridging builds in...........www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT......perhaps otto AND paula

[rainstorm]

thanks

[wxman57]

More likely, neither will develop. The wave east of the Caribbean is moving off to the northwest and its convection is less intense than yesterday. Convection is very spread out. Shear increases farther northwest, so development looks much less likely now (maybe 5%-10% at most).

As for the SW Caribbean, that IS the place to watch this time of year for development. But the presence of high wind shear over the next 3-4 days is not favorable, plus there aren't any significant disturbances down there now. Wind shear will probably relax by early next week, and I do think we'll see development in the Caribbean in the next week or two. But probably not this weekend.

[cycloneye]

the 805pm TWD suggests the possibility of two concurrent trop systems...the first, continuing suggestion of development in the sw caribbean in the late weekend/early week timeframe...the second, a fairly rare development east of the windwards this weekend. INVEST 98L is being highlited in the guidance as the upper low, west of the wave, dissipates and ridging builds in...........www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWDAT......perhaps otto AND paula

I had to lock the thread as there is a similar thread about the same discussion at 8:05 PM last night.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 304#737304