OK!!WHO STOLE FALL??

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weatherlover427

#21 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:12 pm

LAwxrgal wrote:Joshua pass that trough along to us...


Looks like we are keeping it for a few more days until this front that is coming through late tonight and tomorrow passes us by.

You do know that we really need this rain right? ;)
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CaptinCrunch
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#22 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:28 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
142 PM CDT TUE OCT 19 2004


.DISCUSSION...
NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER TWO DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG OVER THE REGION AND GULF OF MEXICO...AND 850 TEMPS
REMAIN IN THE LOWER 20S. OVERNIGHT LOWS OVER THE EAST AND SOUTHERN
CWA WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIR SPREADS
EASTWARD THIS EVENING.

DRYLINE CURRENTLY (18Z) EXTENDING FROM TEMPLE TO ATHENS TO EAST OF
PARIS WITH A COLD FRONT LYING ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THIS DRY AIR
WILL PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA TONIGHT THEN MOVE BACK WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGHING DEEPENS AND SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY.

STRONG WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS FRIDAY
WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE COOL FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS NTX FRIDAY MIDDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD AFFECT FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PROGRAMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
QUARTER OF THE CWA...THUS NORTH TEXANS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AREAS... IT SHOULD BECOME
STATIONARY... THEN MOVE BACK NORTH ON SUNDAY WITH SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE
SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS FIRST OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST AND TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK ACROSS THE CONUS
AS FRIDAYS SYSTEM.

INSTABILITY AND CAPES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
(ISOLATED SEVERE) FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL BE LOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS STRONG 90 KT PLUS 250 JET
ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH ON ITS TREK ACROSS THE REGION.
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#23 Postby Brent » Tue Oct 19, 2004 3:40 pm

Blah. It sucks here too. 45 Saturday Morning and today it's humid and sticky with severe weather and is going to be in the low 80s tomorrow through the weekend.

:grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

I WANT FALL BACK!!! :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:
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#24 Postby PTrackerLA » Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:03 pm

We went from a low of 46 last week to a low of 79 last night! It's so humid, muggy, and sticky outside I just hate it. No real cool down in sight either as we will only drop to the low 80's by Sunday. Bring fall back please!
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#25 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:26 pm

Ahhh... Do I have to? I want to keep it for a while longer... :lol: :lol:
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#26 Postby Wnghs2007 » Tue Oct 19, 2004 4:47 pm

Brent wrote:Blah. It sucks here too. 45 Saturday Morning and today it's humid and sticky with severe weather and is going to be in the low 80s tomorrow through the weekend.

:grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr: :grr:

I WANT FALL BACK!!! :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll:



Me to :grr:
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Anonymous

#27 Postby Anonymous » Tue Oct 19, 2004 11:14 pm

It's chilly here!! I'll take that Texan ridge! Give me my OBX weather!!! I want a high of 77 degrees and a dewpoint of 64 degrees!!! Heck, I wouldn't mind a high of 84 and a dewpoint of 69 degrees!! I want my OBX weather jebwalk!!



-OBX Jeb
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#28 Postby Shoshana » Wed Oct 20, 2004 2:17 am

It's icky here too. Well after midnight it was 75F and 94% humidity. Blech. And they say we'll break the 92F record high later on today. I think it was 93 yesterday here in Austin.

We have summer temps with fall pollen? That's just not right!

You know, i really think it was cooler here in August. I may wind up using the sprinklers this year afterall...

'shana

We had lows in the 40's last week ... i want them back!
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#29 Postby michaelwmoss » Wed Oct 20, 2004 2:24 am

Well we can see the higher humidity air mass trying to come in even here. Lots of Fog:

Image

Time sensitive Image
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#30 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:50 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT WED OCT 20 2004



.DISCUSSION...

ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED AND WILL BASE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST OFF PERSISTENCE FROM YESTERDAY. WACO SHOULD HAVE NO
TROUBLE BREAKING THE RECORD HIGH OF 92 SET IN 1978...BUT DFW RECORD
OF 95 LOOKS OUT OF REACH. 70+ DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS TODAY AND HEAT INDEX VALUES OF 100 WILL BE POSSIBLE. DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL WEAKEN AND SLIGHTLY COOLER MAX TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY. HOWEVER HIGH SURFACE MOISTURE WILL SURGE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA LATE TONIGHT SO MIN TEMPS WILL BE WARMER AND IT WILL
FEEL HOT AND HUMID AREAWIDE THU-FRI.

DEEP TROUGHING OVER THE WEST COAST WILL AMPLIFY UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN GULF AND E TX TODAY. SO DESPITE CAPES OF 4000 J/KG ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND LIMITED CIN THIS AFTERNOON...SUBSIDENT MOTIONS SHOULD
KEEP THINGS DRY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN PLANTED ACROSS E TX THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE THE TROUGH EJECTS OUT INTO THE PLAINS. LOOKS
LIKE A FORMIDABLE CAP DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. THUS SEVERE
THREAT LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING
ACROSS KS FRIDAY...AND NOTHING TO WEAKEN THE CAP UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING AFTER THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS. WILL CONTINUE LOW POPS NW
FRI AFTERNOON...AND THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS
CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONGEST WITH THE FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST A WEAKER FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AND STALL
ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY. FOR THIS REASON WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
LOW POPS IN ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO SUNDAY...AND WILL ALSO SHOW TEMPS
WARMER THAN MEX NUMBERS...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS.

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THE FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL WEAKEN
AND RETREAT EAST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN.
GFS SHOWS A FRONT STALLING OVER THE RED RIVER AND SUBSEQUENTLY SOME
HIGH POPS FROM THE MEX MOS. HOWEVER ECMWF/UKMET INDICATE NO FRONT
AND JUST WARM/WINDY CONDITIONS AHEAD OF A WEST COAST TROUGH. WILL
KEEPS ZONES DRY...SIDING WITH THE ECMWF/UKMET AS I DO NOT LIKE TO
SHOTGUN POPS ALL OVER THE EXTENDED WHEN THIS MUCH UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS. WILL FORECAST TEMPS ABOVE NORMALS AND SHOW SOME COOLING
TEMPS ONLY OUT OF RESPECT FOR CLIMO AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY. TR/92
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#31 Postby michaelwmoss » Wed Oct 20, 2004 8:51 am

That is quite a monster off the coast. There could even be some funnel clouds if that decides to come onshore more.
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#32 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Oct 20, 2004 10:47 am

michaelwmoss wrote:That is quite a monster off the coast. There could even be some funnel clouds if that decides to come onshore more.



Yes it is :eek:
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Scorpion

#33 Postby Scorpion » Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:07 pm

It was a nice 54 here Saturday morning, yesterday the low was around 80. Also, we're getting a heck of alot of thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Very summerlike outside.
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#34 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:18 pm

Scorpion wrote:It was a nice 54 here Saturday morning, yesterday the low was around 80. Also, we're getting a heck of alot of thunderstorm activity for this time of year. Very summerlike outside.


LOL 54 to 80 jeeze :eek:
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#35 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:33 pm

Hit 89-90 here today with head indicies of 100! Just read the area forecast discussion and no cold fronts are predicted for the rest of the month :(.
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#36 Postby TS Zack » Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:40 pm

No breaks either!! This will continue right through November. Finally the pattern will break the first or second week of November!!
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#37 Postby Wnghs2007 » Wed Oct 20, 2004 4:55 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Hit 89-90 here today with head indicies of 100! Just read the area forecast discussion and no cold fronts are predicted for the rest of the month :(.


OMG. It is summer :eek:
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#38 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Oct 21, 2004 10:00 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004


.UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS MORNING...SOUTH OF A
COMANCHE...HILLSBORO...TO CANTON LINE. THE IFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR 14-15Z...AND THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK LATE THIS
MORNING...ALLLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN. OTHERWISE...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST
AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY 00Z. #58

&&

.DISCUSSION...
420 AM CDT THU OCT 21 2004
ALL 0Z MODELS SEEMED TO HAVE INGESTED BOGUS DATA FROM THE 0Z LCH
SOUNDING...WHICH SHOWED PRECIPITABLE WATER AT 2.3 INCHES...LIKELY AN
INCH TOO HIGH. SUBSEQUENTLY THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON THE FORECAST
THE MODELS GENERATE WITH GFS/ETA/NGM/RUC ALL DEVELOPING PRECIP OVER
THE AREA TODAY WITH UNREALISTIC HIGH CAPES/PWS. WILL DISCOUNT THESE
PROGS AND CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST...AND HOPE THAT THIS BAD DATA DOES
NOT CONTAMINATE PROGS PAST 24 HOURS...WHICH IS A BIT SUSPICIOUS
SINCE 0Z MODELS SHIFTED TOWARD A WEAKER CAP AND MORE INTERESTING
SCENARIO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO MOS
CONSENSUS FOR TEMPS. RECORD HIGH OF 90 IN WACO SHOULD BE BROKEN.

A WEST COAST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND AN
EJECTING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
A CONVECTIVE EPISODE FRIDAY EVENING AS A WEAK FRONT DROPS THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS. DRYLINE MAY BECOME ACTIVE THIS EVENING TO THE NW OF
THE CWA...BUT CAP SHOULD KEEP THINGS QUIET HERE TONIGHT. INCREASING
UPWARD FORCING WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE CWA FRIDAY...INDICATED
BY Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL THICKNESS CONTOURS.
THIS IN COMBINATION WITH HEATING WILL ULTIMATELY OVERCOME CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION...WITH INITIATION MOST LIKELY ALONG DRYLINE DRAPED ACROSS
THE WESTERN CWA. FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR/CAPES 1000-1500 J/KG
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO
BE HAIL/WIND AS 500-700 MB LAPSE RATES WILL BE AROUND 7 DEG/KM.
0-1KM SHEAR LOOKS WEAK HOWEVER ETA DOES INCREASE 925MB FLOW AFTER
SUNSET. STILL TIME TO WATCH...AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SEVERE OUT
OF THE ZONES BUT WILL ELABORATE IN THE HWO.

WEAK FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY AND LIKELY BECOME
DIFFUSE BY SUNDAY. GFS JUST WAY TOO WET SUN-WED AND HAVE SIDED WITH
THE OTHER MODELS. SHOWED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE DAYTIME POPS SUN-MON AS
MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LINGER BEFORE BEING
PULLED NORTH. ECMWF/UKMET SUGGEST LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF WILL WEAKEN. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY
SOUTH WINDS AND KEEP WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS...AND CONTINUED TO
SHOW TEMPS WARMER THAN MEX MOS. KEPT FORECAST DRY TUE-WED AS THERE
WILL BE NOTHING TO SET OFF CONVECTION UNTIL PERHAPS THURSDAY. TR/92
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#39 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Oct 21, 2004 11:35 am

Heat index values over 100 forecasted for today, I love fall in the south :roll: .
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#40 Postby Pinwheeler » Thu Oct 21, 2004 6:27 pm

Who stole the pleasant fall weather?

Friday - 1.02" of rain. Windy, cloudy, some fog and 48 in the afternoon. It was dreary. I'm glad we got some rain finally, (no real significant rain since September 7) and dreary is fine for a day or two. Highest wind 28mph (not a max gust)
Saturday, - 0.01" rain, windy, cloudy, high 49, highest wind 32mph
Sunday - mostly cloudy, but the clouds cleared at about 5:00. High 47, highest wind 24mph.
Monday - cloudy, 0.16" of rain, not an all day rain. High 49. Some fog during the day. Cloudy all day.
Tuesday - fog all day. High 48, 0.03" drizzle
Wednesday - some fog, but not as bad as Tuesday. Cloudy all day. High 56.
Thursday so far - cloudy, high around 55.
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