Oh boy ... SVR WX HIGHLY LIKELY in IA/MO

[Anonymous]

The storm chasers will have a lot to chase with this system.

But all I ask is that the system pulls up a TON of warm, moist air ahead of it into Woodbridge, VA. I don't normally like severe weather, but I'll take my chances with it. All I ask is this: I want that warm air to hit N VA!! I want a few days of my beloved 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! That's classical OBX weather, and I didn't get it at the OBX!! So I want as much of it as I can get now!!!

With a major system such as this, it should advect plenty of low-level warm air and humidity northward into Woodbridge, VA!! Bring it!! Bring it!!

Bring on my temps in the upper 70s!!! I'll even take low/mid 80s!! And I want those dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s!!!

If we are gonna have a severe outbreak, I want my warm, humid 77/64 OBX weather!!!!

BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!

It's TOO COLD here in N VA!! We only eked out 53 degrees for a high today!! I'm freezing to death here!!

I want my 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! I want a few days of it so I can enjoy my OBX jebwalk weather!!!

All I can say is, BRING IT!!!



-OBX Jeb

[wxguy25]

I suspect shear will be very favorable early in the period, but the strength and orientation of the 500 mb vort max indicate to me that forcing will extremely strong. In this event, a squall line or derecho will rapidly form from the original supercells. Much will depend on the amount of clearing that can take place behind the warm air advection precipitation that will occur in the morning and/or afternoon. The GFS shows precipitation in IA/MO/MN throughout much of the day. In this event, the squall line scenario is more likely. On the other hand, the 12 and 18Z Eta are more or less precipitation free throughout the day Friday. QPF doesn't show up until the 00Z-06Z time frame on Friday night. I suspect there to be a situation in between these two, where the overriding warm air advection type showers and storms will be moving out in time for some clearing and destablization. This could be a low CAPE, high-shear outbreak, meaning the instability will be lacking, but the very dynamic wind field will help over come this. It will all come down to the details including convective debris, outflow, the low-level wind field, and forcing along the front and pre-frontal trough on Friday. Even if this doesn't present a major tornadic risk, the amount of forcing alone suggests a major wind damage event, especially since the low level (850-925 mb) wind field will be approaching 60 kt. High dewpoint/theta-e air will probably surge north rapidly during the day Friday - and that will be a major player in the amount of destabilization further north. I think the highest risk of tornadoes, as of now, would be near the triple point (probably somewhere across W Iowa and southern MN, then south along the dryline/prefrontal trough/front. Another scenario I see is an outbreak of tornadoes along the retreating warm front just to the south and behind the morning convection. Below is the 18Z Eta forecast sounding and hodograph for Des Moines. Notice the low level inversion that would probably act to reduce major destabilization. That is one hell of a wind field though.

http://beta.wxcaster.com/skewts/meta-te ... __kdsm.png

Agreed and Good post. I just had a look at the 18z ETA-BUFKIT sounding at DSM. impressive hodographs with lowest 6km shear of 60-65 m/s and a 50 kt LLJ just below h850. This is going to be fun for sure. Instability was minimal though w/ CAPE generally below 1000J. Still can be a large scale outbreak since the UVM generated will be more than enough to lift parcels to the required level.

[Stormsfury]

One of the aspect which leads me to believe that derecho formation is about 50/50 to form further upstream (say MN, the derecho capitol of America) ... but a couple of variables come into play during the overnight hours ... downstream in AR, Eastern MO, and NW MS should be targeted with a pre-frontal squall line and best moisture begins to congeal further down robbing SOME of the moisture further north ... but strong dynamics may totally override that ...

SF

[Guest]

My weather radio has been begging for some action (other than the Wednesday test); I think it will be quite busy come Friday.

[wxguy25]

One of the aspect which leads me to believe that derecho formation is about 50/50 to form further upstream (say MN, the derecho capitol of America) ... but a couple of variables come into play during the overnight hours ... downstream in AR, Eastern MO, and NW MS should be targeted with a pre-frontal squall line and best moisture begins to congeal further down robbing SOME of the moisture further north ... but strong dynamics may totally override that ...

SF

Agreed. the synoptic set-up tends to favor a serial derecho given the amplitude of the trough, strong UVM and the 50kt LLJ punching in. this is actually a more common thing during the cold season. the instability (lack thereof) is less of an issue. Ill use the MAR 2001 serial derecho as an example over the northeast.

[wxguy25]

The storm chasers will have a lot to chase with this system.

But all I ask is that the system pulls up a TON of warm, moist air ahead of it into Woodbridge, VA. I don't normally like severe weather, but I'll take my chances with it. All I ask is this: I want that warm air to hit N VA!! I want a few days of my beloved 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! That's classical OBX weather, and I didn't get it at the OBX!! So I want as much of it as I can get now!!!

With a major system such as this, it should advect plenty of low-level warm air and humidity northward into Woodbridge, VA!! Bring it!! Bring it!!

Bring on my temps in the upper 70s!!! I'll even take low/mid 80s!! And I want those dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s!!!

If we are gonna have a severe outbreak, I want my warm, humid 77/64 OBX weather!!!!

BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!

It's TOO COLD here in N VA!! We only eked out 53 degrees for a high today!! I'm freezing to death here!!

I want my 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! I want a few days of it so I can enjoy my OBX jebwalk weather!!!

All I can say is, BRING IT!!!



-OBX Jeb

Get used to it. The core of the warm air probably won't reach the Mid Atlantic and NE thanks to the NAO. that warm air being pulled up ahead of the trough which is going to produce all the severe wx over the midwest will wipe out some of the snowcover over Ontario province in canada (SW of hudson bay)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCHIVE ... 004294.gif

[PurdueWx80]

First guess for the updated (Moderate) risk - MSP to Quad Cities to Kansas City to Omaha and back to MSP. The instability/theta-e axis will probably be quite narrow in the warm sector up towards Minneapolis, so the threat area may get squished down further south of cloud cover and/or precip bungle things up. I'll have to agree with the derecho shot - it will be much less likely if CAPEs can't build to ~ 2000 J/kg. The shear will just be too strong to sustain surface-based updrafts once the sun goes down. I imagine a long linear squall line with bowing segments will also form right along the front down into MO/KS/OK and perhaps TX. Tonight's Eta actually has a decent looking MCS-type feature developing in far eastern IA, and exapanding into northern IL, MI and IN overnight.

The Eta has slowed down the front on Saturday (more in line with some of the other models), and again, if convective debris can get out of the way, IN, OH, MI and KY will be in for severe weather up until the mid-afternoon. Otherwise, the threat will probably be a bit further east in association with the leading edge of the overnight storms. Saturday's threat looks like more of a scattered severe wind day, with the only tornado threat along the warm front and any remaining outflow boundaries.

[Anonymous]

The storm chasers will have a lot to chase with this system.

But all I ask is that the system pulls up a TON of warm, moist air ahead of it into Woodbridge, VA. I don't normally like severe weather, but I'll take my chances with it. All I ask is this: I want that warm air to hit N VA!! I want a few days of my beloved 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! That's classical OBX weather, and I didn't get it at the OBX!! So I want as much of it as I can get now!!!

With a major system such as this, it should advect plenty of low-level warm air and humidity northward into Woodbridge, VA!! Bring it!! Bring it!!

Bring on my temps in the upper 70s!!! I'll even take low/mid 80s!! And I want those dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s!!!

If we are gonna have a severe outbreak, I want my warm, humid 77/64 OBX weather!!!!

BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!!

It's TOO COLD here in N VA!! We only eked out 53 degrees for a high today!! I'm freezing to death here!!

I want my 77/64 temperature/dewpoint spread!!! I want a few days of it so I can enjoy my OBX jebwalk weather!!!

All I can say is, BRING IT!!!



-OBX Jeb

Get used to it. The core of the warm air probably won't reach the Mid Atlantic and NE thanks to the NAO. that warm air being pulled up ahead of the trough which is going to produce all the severe wx over the midwest will wipe out some of the snowcover over Ontario province in canada (SW of hudson bay)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/SNOW/ARCHIVE ... 004294.gif

You're breaking my heart, wxguy25. I just wish the weather would warm up a little like it used to. You know, it's in the 50s this week, then it warms to the 70s next week.

Hmm, I guess the NAO is so unbelievably strong this fall that we are just gonna stay chilly.

Oh well. This should teach me to stop wishing for the North Atlantic Current to slow down or stop. I see my folly now. Cold weather is truly miserable. I have got to move to South Florida where they enjoy OBX conditions all winter (77/64 T/Td).

Too bad its gonna stay so chilly in N VA from here on out.

[PurdueWx80]

New Day-2 Outlook risk assesment from the SPC -

[therock1811]

Cincinnati = BULLSEYE Saturday!

That trough, while it will weaken, may well produce severe storms here Saturday with marginal to maybe moderate instability. Main threat will likely be damaging wind as the storms will be linear in nature.

[Nate-Gillson]

I will have to watch the weather very closely tommorow because I'm right smack in the middle of the highest risk for severe weather.

[Anonymous]

If only the storm would move a little farther EAST. Then I could enjoy some of that milder weather.

It's a bummer, having to put up with all these freezing-cold highs near 50 degrees. I am so sorry I ever wanted a cold winter. Northern Virginia is beginning to average ten degrees below normal and I am freezing to death. I am beginning to wish I had stayed down in Texas for another two months like my relatives wanted me to. It's only October 21 and I am already sick and tired of winter!! We have not even seen the sun for three days!! We need major global warming!! I am so tired of that darn NAO!!

It's really cold here. I'm miserable. We are having a really hard time just trying to warm above 53 degrees.

Our normal high is supposed to be 68 degrees.

I wish to God that I could move to Key West, Florida right now, where it is currently 83 degrees. Those fortunate people will never freeze, they have it made with year-round OBX conditions and the beach right at their doorstep.

[Indystorm]

I'd favor the warm front action tomorrow if I could chase....somewhere in the triangle from Kirksville to Des Moines to Quad Cities. Will be watching via computer Friday afternoon and evening. GFS seems to be the model of choice now after problems with ETA scenario.