November outlook from CPC...

[aggiecutter]

any thoughts from anyone....agree, disagree???


http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... ons/30day/


PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830 AM EDT THU OCT 21 2004

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR NOVEMBER 2004
.
THE FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE SKILL-MASKED CFS - WITH
SUPPORT FROM CCA AND OCN IN THE SOUTHWEST.

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WEAK WARM EPISODE CONDITIONS (EL NINO)
CONTINUE OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AND A MAJORITY OF SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST) PREDICTION TOOLS INDICATE THAT AT LEAST WEAK EL NINO CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE FROM THIS FALL THROUGH THE FIRST FEW MONTHS OF 2005. THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE EL NINO COULD STRENGTHEN TO MODERATE INTENSITY AND A SMALLER CHANCE
THAT IT WILL WEAKEN BACK TO NEUTRAL STATUS. HOWEVER THE CONSENSUS AMONG
STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL PREDICTIONS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT
THREE-MONTH AVERAGED SST ANOMALIES IN THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC AVERAGED
OVER THE REGION BOUNDED BY 120W TO 170W AND WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF THE EQUATOR
(NINO 3.4 REGION) WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN IN THE RANGE OF +0.5 TO +1.0 DEG C
FROM OND 2004 THROUGH MAM 2005. AFTER MAM 2005 THE OUTLOOK BECOMES MORE
UNCERTAIN... BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE A WEAKENING AND EVENTUAL END OF THE WARM
EPSIODE LATER IN 2005.

THE EXPECTED STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE ABNORMALLY WARM TROPICAL PACIFIC
SSTS DURING THE WINTER AND SPRING MONTHS ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE FORECAST...
ALTHOUGH THE CONSENSUS OF MOST MODELS... BOTH STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL... IS
THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL SSTS NEAR AND EAST OF THE DATE
LINE... BUT THAT THERE WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANTLY ABOVE NORMAL SSTS IN THE
EASTERN PART OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE PATTERN
AND MAGNITUDE OF THE SST ANOMALIES IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC STRONGLY INFLUENCES
THE MIDDLE LATITUDE IMPACTS OF EL NINO... ESPECIALLY DURING THE COLD SEASON.

BASIN-WIDE... OR CLASSICAL STRONG EL NINOS LIKE THOSE OF 1982-83 AND 1997-98
HAVE A PATTERN OF ABNORMALLY WARM SSTS WHICH EXTEND ALL THE WAY FROM THE DATE
LINE TO THE COAST OF PERU. IMPACTS OF SUCH EL NINOS OFTEN INCLUDE ABNORMAL
WETNESS FROM CALIFORNIA TO FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM AND EASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE PACIFIC JET...RESPECTIVELY...AND ABNORMAL
DRYNESS CENTERED ON MONTANA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THESE WARM EVENTS ARE ALSO
CHARACTERIZED BY ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF
THE CONTINENTAL U.S.

CENTRAL PACIFIC EL NINOS...LIKE THOSE IN 1963-64, 1968-69 AND 2002-03 ARE
CHARACTERIZED BY SMALL SST ANOMALIES IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ABNORMALLY WARM
SSTS IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC. THE U.S. TEMPERATURE RESPONSE TO THIS
TYPE OF EL NINO IS USUALLY COLDER THAN NORMAL OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND A MUCH
LESS RELIABLE HEAVY PRECIPITATION SIGNAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S. ..
ESPECIALLY IN CALIFORNIA.

THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FOR NOVEMBER IS FOR SUB-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN
cOLORADO - NEW MEXICO AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TEXAS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN WESTERN ARIZONA - NEW MEXICO - cALIFORNIA - MUCH OF THE
NORTHWEST AND IN ALASKA.

THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER FORECAST CALLS FOR ENHANCED LIKELIHOOD
OF SUB-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FROM NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND WISCONSIN WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI AND MINNESOTA TO NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE DAKOTAS.

FORECASTER: E. OLENIC

NOTE - WITHIN THE VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.

NOTE - AREAS OF UNCERTAINTY THAT FORMERLY WERE LABELED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL
PROBABILTIES) ARE NOW LABELED EC (EQUAL CHANCES).

NOTE - THE NEXT 0.5 MONTH LEAD-TIME MONTHLY OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2004 WILL BE ISSUED
THURSDAY NOV 18 2004.

NORMALS ARE BASED ON THE 1971-2000 PERIOD.

$$

[yoda]

Interesting... to say the least.

[Wnghs2007]

Interesting... to say the least.

Yes very

[yoda]

Interesting... to say the least.

Yes very

It is interesting because of the CFS. I thought the CPC used some new model.

[Wnghs2007]

Interesting... to say the least.

Yes very

It is interesting because of the CFS. I thought the CPC used some new model.

Yes indeed that is why I said very

[yoda]

Interesting... to say the least.

Yes very

It is interesting because of the CFS. I thought the CPC used some new model.

Yes indeed that is why I said very

You knew that? Sure....

[Wnghs2007]

Interesting... to say the least.

Yes very

It is interesting because of the CFS. I thought the CPC used some new model.

Yes indeed that is why I said very

You knew that? Sure....

Yes I did buddy