TD 16E forms...

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senorpepr
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TD 16E forms...

#1 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:31 pm

Image

16E NONAME
30kts
1005mb
22.3N 108.8W
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cycloneye
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Tropical storm warning for Mexican coast

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 5:47 pm

000
WTPZ21 KNHC 252238
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER
1...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162004
2200Z MON OCT 25 2004

CORRECTED ADVISORY NUMBER FROM 2 TO 1

AT 3 PM PDT...2200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM EL ROBLITO
NORTHWARD TO TOPOLOBAMPO.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 108.6W AT 25/2200Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 108.6W AT 25/2200Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 108.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.6N 107.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 28.6N 105.8W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 32.0N 102.7W...DISSIPATING INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

FORECASTER STEWART
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#3 Postby Hurricanehink » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:05 pm

Why?!? It is really disorganized.
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#4 Postby senorpepr » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:11 pm

I suprised it was upgraded, especially after the TWOs dropped off all hope for it. I would be suprised if it makes TS status.
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#5 Postby Sanibel » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:40 pm

Big rain for Texas...
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#6 Postby yoda » Mon Oct 25, 2004 6:43 pm

Big surprise here as well... :eek:
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:24 pm


TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN (EP162004) ON 20041026 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041026 0000 041026 1200 041027 0000 041027 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.8N 108.5W 28.0N 105.8W 32.6N 102.1W 36.9N 96.4W
BAMM 23.8N 108.5W 27.0N 106.8W 30.7N 104.7W 34.5N 102.1W
LBAR 23.8N 108.5W 27.5N 106.4W 32.7N 103.4W 37.7N 98.5W
SHIP 30KTS 28KTS 29KTS 23KTS
DSHP 30KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041028 0000 041029 0000 041030 0000 041031 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 38.4N 87.6W 32.4N 74.7W 27.0N 63.6W 31.3N 46.4W
BAMM 38.0N 98.6W 39.3N 87.2W 34.9N 77.0W 29.2N 69.4W
LBAR 39.7N 91.1W 33.5N 78.4W .0N .0W .0N .0W
SHIP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.8N LONCUR = 108.5W DIRCUR = 10DEG SPDCUR = 16KT
LATM12 = 20.7N LONM12 = 109.0W DIRM12 = 5DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 18.0N LONM24 = 109.1W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1004MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Mike the models dont turn this into a tropical storm in this 00:00 run and it is not a surprise that they dont.
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#8 Postby hurricanefreak1988 » Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:58 pm

Argh. Hopefully the Atlantic will have one more run in them so we can edge back in front. It's 16-15, E-Pac, at the moment.
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