AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
308 PM CDT MON OCT 25 2004
.DISCUSSION...
AM WATCHING THE NEXT EJECTING SYSTEM VERY CLOSELY. THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO MOVE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO WESTERN CANADA THEN
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS APPEARS TO INDUCE
CYCLOGENESIS WITH A CLOSED LOW EJECTING ONTO THE PLAINS...BUT
FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE SYSTEM ON FRIDAY. THERE HAS BEEN RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW AND THE RELATIVE MEASURE OF
PREDICTABILITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE SYSTEM REMAINS HIGH. AND...ON
IT'S PRESENT COURSE...THE SYSTEM COULD BRING AN ELECTION EVE SNOW
STORM SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED
A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THE FIRST SNOW SHOWERS OF THE SEASON MIX
WITH THE RAIN HERE LOCALLY MONDAY NIGHT.
Nebraska snow?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
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Nebraska snow?
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senorpepr
- Military Met/Moderator
- Posts: 12542
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2003 9:22 pm
- Location: Mackenbach, Germany
- Contact:
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-271100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN. LATER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAIL IF THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
$$
POLLACK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004
IAZ043-055-056-069-079-080-090-091-NEZ011-012-015>018-030>034-
042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093-271100-
ANTELOPE-BOONE-BURT-BUTLER-CASS-CEDAR-COLFAX-CUMING-DODGE-DOUGLAS-
FREMONT IA-GAGE-HARRISON IA-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LANCASTER-MADISON-
MILLS IA-MONONA IA-MONTGOMERY IA-NEMAHA-OTOE-PAGE IA-PAWNEE-PIERCE-
PLATTE-POTTAWATTAMIE IA-RICHARDSON-SALINE-SARPY-SAUNDERS-SEWARD-
SHELBY IA-STANTON-THURSTON-WASHINGTON-WAYNE-
534 PM CDT TUE OCT 26 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA
AND SOUTHWEST IOWA.
.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
THERE IS A CHANCE OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOME
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW APPEARS TO BE IN NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE EXPECTED STORM SYSTEM
ARE QUITE UNCERTAIN. LATER OUTLOOKS AND FORECASTS WILL PROVIDE
MORE DETAIL IF THE CHANCE OF SNOW CONTINUES.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.
$$
POLLACK
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yoda
- Category 5
- Posts: 7874
- Joined: Tue Jan 13, 2004 3:51 pm
- Location: Springfield VA (20 mins south of DC)
- Contact:
In addition....
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
628 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2004
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
628 AM MDT (728 AM CDT) TUE OCT 26 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS.
CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE MOMENT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES END UP BEING JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER...
THIS SYSTEM COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OF THE
SEASON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. THE TIMING...TRACK...AND
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NOT CERTAIN...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.
It will be a close call...
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
628 AM MDT TUE OCT 26 2004
SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
628 AM MDT (728 AM CDT) TUE OCT 26 2004
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A STRONG STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE NORTHERN PLAINS AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS.
CURRENT LONG RANGE MODELS PLACE THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING...THE BLACK HILLS...AND NORTHWESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. AT THE MOMENT...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE JUST WARM
ENOUGH TO KEEP MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN. IF
THE ACTUAL TEMPERATURES END UP BEING JUST A FEW DEGREES COLDER...
THIS SYSTEM COULD BE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM OF THE
SEASON...ESPECIALLY IN THE BLACK HILLS. THE TIMING...TRACK...AND
STRENGTH OF THIS STORM SYSTEM IS NOT CERTAIN...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND THE LOCAL MEDIA FOR UPDATES ON THIS POTENTIAL
STORM.
It will be a close call...
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