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aveosmth
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Radar

#21 Postby aveosmth » Tue Oct 26, 2004 3:19 pm

I hope they get that up and running soon!!! We really need that info. Winds are about 10-15 mph right now here in Santa Monica, and to the NW warm advection precip is occuring ahead of the front....
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weatherlover427

#22 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 7:15 pm

Down here in Costa Mesa, it's rather breezy from the south at 15-20 MPH and there are a lot of dark clouds to my west and north.

Thanks for posting the SPC outlooks, I saw them. :) Kind of freaky to see such wording from them, especially for this area. :eek:
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#23 Postby yoda » Tue Oct 26, 2004 7:18 pm

Joshua21Young wrote:Down here in Costa Mesa, it's rather breezy from the south at 15-20 MPH and there are a lot of dark clouds to my west and north.

Thanks for posting the SPC outlooks, I saw them. :) Kind of freaky to see such wording from them, especially for this area. :eek:


Your welcome Joshua. Anytime! :D
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weatherlover427

#24 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 7:26 pm

BTW there is rain in L.A. right now according to the Oxnard radar. I wonder if aveosmith is seeing anything. Nothing here yet at my location though, although I assume that it is coming soon.
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Very Breezy Conditions

#25 Postby aveosmth » Tue Oct 26, 2004 7:38 pm

Very breezy conditions with light rain here in the south bay....Im guessing here but sustained 20-25 mph w/gusts to 35 or so....should be an interesting night.
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weatherlover427

#26 Postby weatherlover427 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 8:38 pm

It has finally started to rain here in Costa Mesa, nothing heavy yet but it is still very breezy from the south and southwest. I will keep you updated as long as I can unless I lose power.
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#27 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Tue Oct 26, 2004 11:39 pm

Looking at the latest radar imagery in contrast to the latest upper air and surface soundings from SPC, it looks like the convergence zone is passing the Los Angeles Area right now. This band is a Mid Level Cold Front, and has some helicity with it. The actual cold front looks ro be in the Malibu area in Ventura County. Just look at these fronts. The secondary front looks like its going to be very dangerous in the Los Angeles area once it hits. The picture below is the radar now. The arrows show the 2 fronts. The right arrow is the Mid level Front, and the Left is the Surface Cold Front. Already high areas of orange dbz in the fronts, and will only get worse as the night progresses. -16c temps at 500mb over the los angeles area now with -20 in the surface cold front. Helicity levels nearing 200 m/s at 1km in that front as well. Shear of near 50 indicated on SPC soundings as well. Very dangerous line of bow echos with rotation, damaging winds, hail, and weak tornado touchdowns will be possible as this line hits the Los Angeles area.
Image
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#28 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:08 am

...CNTRL/SRN CA...
H5 TEMPERATURES AOB MINUS 20C WILL SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ALL OF
CNTRL/SRN CA WEDNESDAY. POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
NUMEROUS CBS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. LOW FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ONE OR TWO TSTMS COULD EVOLVE INTO
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE LA BASIN WHERE THE MORE UNSTABLE
MARINE LAYER /SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 55F/ BECOMES COINCIDENT WITH
35-40 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KM.



from SPC 0600 OUTLOOK DAY 1... that is todays...
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#29 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:18 am

Latest ETA models still show helicity rather strong in the 1km region, however the 850mb winds have slowed down alot. SPC real-time shows 25 knt winds from the 850mb level. Still a chance of severe storms tonight with this line, however looking less likely as the storm moves on. The models were looking great until about now. ill try to update info as possible. Right now over Ventura the vertical shear in the lower 6km is 75knts, so if something forms tonight in the LA area, it could be severe, and possibly could yield the small chace of a tornado. Better chance happen tomorrow morning and afternoon as the most dynamics come together.
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#30 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 12:52 am

The Low Level winds look like they are on the increase, possibly giving the chance of a Bow Echo coming into the Los Angeles area. The Bow echo has not formed yet, but the beginnings are being seen now on radar with a huge line forming off the coast. I expect it to strengthen as it gets inland, possibly due to the mountains north of Los Angeles, and neighboring counties. Here is a radar image i got showing this line.
Image
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#31 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 27, 2004 1:08 am

Hmmm that is possible. Latest radar from San Diego shows a line though... no bow ATTM...

http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/ ... ksox.shtml

However... LAX radar shows a possible slight bow...

http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/latest/ ... kvtx.shtml
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weatherlover427

#32 Postby weatherlover427 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 2:43 am

It's been raining hard as heck here for the past couple of hours. I am guessing almost two inches in my gauge so far (at least when I checked it at midnight PDT). Will keep updating as long as I can.
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#33 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:04 am

Stay safe Joshua. Radar estimates show 2" of rain in LA...
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#34 Postby riverratmike » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:21 am

well here in Lake Havasu City, AZ 1:30am there is no rain yet but wind out of the south 15 to 20mph and is mostly cloudy. Wonder how much rain I'll get out of this storm. I'll keep a close eye on my weather station
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#35 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:26 am

Several Embedded Bow echos in this lead Mid Level Cold Front passed by my area. It brought very heavy rain, some lightning, and winds nearing severe levels! I have a radar image i took of that bow echo. You can put it for your archives as proof the models said what was gonna happen. Now remember the Lead Mid Level Front was this bow echo. I can't begin to imagine what the surface front will do when it reaches here. Its nearing here now. Looking at the latest models, helicity is coming in strong over the area in the next couple hrs. It will intersect the surface cold front with near 250 m/s helicity at 1km. This should bring, yet another round of bow echos possible, and likely stronger than this one. Radar indicated at 12:36am in Orange County, Laguna Niguel a meso signature on the north end of the bow echo below. Ill keep doing radar images as the day wears on , and severe weather threatens Southern California.

Image
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weatherlover427

#36 Postby weatherlover427 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:30 am

Well I lost power again. :oops: Transformer near me exploded big time. I could hear it, but didn't see any flashes. Got power back and hopefully it will stay on for now. Just under 2 inches now with another heavy band of rain coming in shortly. I would not be surprised to see 3 inches easy come later this afternoon.
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#37 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:41 am

True Joshua, look at the radar. Its a bow echo even bigger than the last one. We have possibly a bigger and stronger bow echo coming into La shortly. stay safe!
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#38 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 27, 2004 3:47 am

Possibly... no warnings out ATTM.
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Tornado_Chaser2005

#39 Postby Tornado_Chaser2005 » Wed Oct 27, 2004 4:10 am

no warnings with the other one either. Really it just formed over Inland Areas East of Los Angeles and hit me. Hit hit hard that one did, maybe this might do the same. Even with cold air moving overhead, helicity increasnig as well. It should weaken in Downtown LA, then strengthen once it is east of there where the mountains will take care of it hopefully. not really sure if the Low Level winds have passed or not, if so, then possibly no bow. if not, then chance.
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#40 Postby yoda » Wed Oct 27, 2004 8:57 am

Tornado_Chaser2005 wrote:no warnings with the other one either. Really it just formed over Inland Areas East of Los Angeles and hit me. Hit hit hard that one did, maybe this might do the same. Even with cold air moving overhead, helicity increasnig as well. It should weaken in Downtown LA, then strengthen once it is east of there where the mountains will take care of it hopefully. not really sure if the Low Level winds have passed or not, if so, then possibly no bow. if not, then chance.


A MINIMAL
TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IF SFC WINDS CAN RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE LA BASIN CREATING A FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR LOW-LEVEL STORM ROTATION.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html
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