Has the 2004 season ceased..?

[Josephine96]

From my amateur eye it looks like we are ready to close the books on 2004. What a ride for us it's been. Especially here in Florida.

I think we may still have Otto.. But odds are.. no more than that..

Definitely quite a season

[Stormcenter]

I think any U.S. threats very unlikely now even for
Florida. I guess mother nature decided to cut us (U.S.)
some slack considering how bad Aug/ & Sept. were.

[Josephine96]

Perhaps they did SC.. it surely has been a busy and stressful season..

[James]

And a large amount of the storms were concentrated into a comparatively short time - about a third of the entire season.

[Scorpion]

Yes, i think its over .

[HURAKAN]

I think any U.S. threats very unlikely now even for
Florida. I guess mother nature decided to cut us (U.S.)
some slack considering how bad Aug/ & Sept. were.

Something that also amaze me is that even though from Louisiana to Maine, including the Bahamas, Bermuda, the Antilles (Greater & Lesser), and the most northern part of South America, everyone was affected, from Texas down to Panana, no one heard about tropical cycones except when the Yucatan Peninsula was put under Hurricane Watch as Iván approached, but nothing happened.

[James]

That's an interesting point. Hadn't thought about that.

[ColdFront77]

Season doesn't officially end for another 34 days, so technically speaking something else can form, including a subtropical storm.

[cyclonaut]

Season doesn't officially end for another 34 days, so technically speaking something else can form, including a subtropical storm.

You got it..Thats why the season officially ends Nov 30th..Last year there were developments in Dec..I understand that there is a different pattern right now but I expect something else to pop up before its all over..

[yoda]

It is over. I know it is. (and have felt it in the Force. )

[george_r_1961]

I wouldnt be surprised to see a subtropical pop up..especially in the central or eastern Atlantic. Such a system would likely be a fish.

[HurricaneBill]

El Nino seasons can be weird. Take 1994 for instance. Absolutely nothing from late September through October. Yet November 1994 gives us the strongest storm of the year (Florence) and a storm that was apparently drunk. (Gordon)

1991 had the perfect storm.


Anyway, seasons since 1990 that had a storm form in November or later:
1994: Florence and Gordon in November
1996: Marco in November
1998: Nicole in November
1999: Lenny in November
2001: Michelle, Noel, and Olga in November
2003: Odette and Peter in December

Florence, Nicole, Noel, Olga, and Peter formed in the open Atlantic.

Gordon, Marco, Lenny, Michelle, and Odette formed in the western Caribbean.

[weatherwindow]

i believe that at least one, perhaps, two more systems before all is said and done. the big player will be the very persistent UL trough parked over the western carib. IF this trough finally lifts out(prior to january:)), something may finally spin up in that basin. the long range gfs has progged a broad disorganized trough to persist in the sw carib during the first two weeks of nov. surprisingly, the other area may be the central trop atlantic..very interesting pattern between 30-50deg west...check the water vapor on meteostat. i am not suggesting anything that would possibly impact anything other than the fish but nonetheless a possible system...

[Stormsfury]

El Nino seasons can be weird. Take 1994 for instance. Absolutely nothing from late September through October. Yet November 1994 gives us the strongest storm of the year (Florence) and a storm that was apparently drunk. (Gordon)

1991 had the perfect storm.


Anyway, seasons since 1990 that had a storm form in November or later:
1994: Florence and Gordon in November
1996: Marco in November
1998: Nicole in November
1999: Lenny in November
2001: Michelle, Noel, and Olga in November
2003: Odette and Peter in December

Florence, Nicole, Noel, Olga, and Peter formed in the open Atlantic.

Gordon, Marco, Lenny, Michelle, and Odette formed in the western Caribbean.

Interesting points ...

1991 ... origin (as an extratropical storm north of 41º) ...
1994 ... underlying weakening of the El Niño, albeit slight, but the transition was beginning in the ATL thermaline circulation which has been ABV normal since ... and November 1994 was seemingly a precursor of things to come.
1998 - 2001 La Niña - Strong during northern winter seasons 1998-99,1999-00, moderate during 2000-01.
2002 - (very similar to 2004, very close match QBO wise, and ENSO wise, and in fact, one of the analog years being used for a winter outlook) ... after Lili ... season shut down ...
2003 - Neutral

[Brent]

I think it's over. It's always possible something could form though. We'll just have to see.

Been a quiet few weeks.

[Josephine96]

I also am ready to say it's over.. But.. 11/30 is the last day

[hurricanefreak1988]

Alright. We got one month. Come on Atlantic, I refuse to lose to the E-Pac.

[CharleySurvivor]

As long it's a 'fish' bring another otherwise, I don't want to hear of hurricanes until next season.