GFS forecasts low to move...LIKE LENNY!!!

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 12:32 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

rainstorm · #2 Postby **rainstorm** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 12:51 pm

yikes

Website · #3 Postby **Brent** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:48 pm

isobar · #4 Postby **isobar** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 1:49 pm

Well that would sure put the cherry on top of this season's cake. :eek:

Steve H. · #5 Postby **Steve H.** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 3:35 pm

Well, for entertainment, 12Z has it heading slowly north from the SW Caribbean to NE of Honduras. Rubbish at this point. But the point is that something will come out of the western Caribbean, and maybe a hurricane. Season not quite over yet. I'm waiting for the pattern to roll favorable one mo' time and the models to start picking up on it better. :wink:

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 3:43 pm

Yeah, hopefully something will develop this time. But I doubt it.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 4:10 pm

SFC low developing per GFS (though in the LR, so much grains of salt is taken on the run) - Extension of yet another cutoff low in the Central ATL extends a trough down and eventually forms a 500mb cutoff low as SFC low development forms (frontal wave) and heads towards the 500mb low ...

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 4:13 pm

So...Stormfury...what are your thoughts on development of a TD, TS or even a hurricane?

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 5:13 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:So...Stormfury...what are your thoughts on development of a TD, TS or even a hurricane?

I don't like the chances ... remember, this is the GFS in the LR with the lowest resolution run ...

ECMWF 8-10 day 3 day average does not hold the ridge and breaks it down ...

ECMWF 0z 3 day average .... 12z either will update shortly or has been already updated ... On the 0z run, however, the one known bias is possibly showing ... and that's holding energy back in the Southwest states, and this time, holding it WELL back ... extrapolation (removing the bias) lends to a much deeper trough, and POSSIBLY quite a storm system IF a phase should occur ... this would then lend to a better idea that a Southeastern Ridge (subtropical ridge) would have to nose up ... however, there wouldn't be any easterly component ... more of a NW motion to N, and likely being entrained into quite a deep storm system SHOULD a phase occur ... and should the extrapolation idea be right, a very deep trough and associated cold front would reach very far south (as far as the Yucatan Peninsula) ...

Hmmm ... state side activity from what COULD be a possible winter storm N Plains, SVR WX in the warm sector ... too far out for particular details, but ... transition of the PV with disturbances riding from the PJ, and s/w's from the SBJ may make life very interesting in the next 5-10 days stateside ... (but not tropically speaking) ...

SF

WXBUFFJIM · #10 Postby **WXBUFFJIM** » Thu Oct 28, 2004 5:48 pm

Anything is possible in the tropics. However the western Caribbean is one hot spot this time of yar if anything even develops. It's getting later in the season though as it's pretty much down to the wire. Officially we got alittle over a month to go in the hurricane season.

Jim

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Oct 29, 2004 11:10 am

Looks like one more event for Fla *Just Maybe* :onfire:

I knew the season couldnt just end a dudd season--We have had to much action so far so we deserve at least one more party!!

GFS forecasts low to move...LIKE LENNY!!!

GFS forecasts low to move...LIKE LENNY!!!

Who is online