Winter Forecast for North Texas

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CaptinCrunch
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#21 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 01, 2004 9:02 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
525 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004


.DISCUSSION...
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE REGION...ALTHOUGH ONE
TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION.
RAINFALL RATES SHOULD NOT BE SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING
PROBLEMS. RECENT WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE KEPT VEGETATION
GROWING...HENCE THE RUNOFF WILL BE DECREASED TO TOLERABLE
LEVELS...THUS FLOOD WATCH CANCELLED.

MODELS STILL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN HANDLING OF UPPER LOW...ALTHOUGH
IT IS NOW FURTHER SOUTH THAN ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW
RAIN CHANCES TO REMAIN IN THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY...ENDING FROM THE
WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW KICKS OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW COOL AND
DRY AIRMASS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...BRINGING SEASONAL TEMPS AND
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

Today: Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly before noon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind between 5 and 10 mph.

Tonight: A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. South southeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming north northwest.

Election Day: A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 60. North northwest wind between 15 and 20 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Partly cloudy, with a low near 41. North northwest wind around 15 mph.

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. North northwest wind between 10 and 15 mph.

Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 44. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high around 65. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind around 10 mph.

Friday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 63. North northwest wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low near 40.

Saturday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 68.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 44.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high around 70.
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#22 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 02, 2004 9:00 am

AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL KICK OUT THE ONE CURRENTLY OVER W
TX...THEN DROP SOUTH OFF THE CA. COAST FOR A FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GIVING US A NICE
STRETCH OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK.
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#23 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 02, 2004 2:09 pm

TEXAS has received it's first Winter Storm of the season bringing SNOW and freezing temps from the Texas Panhandle down to the Davis Mountains with snowfall ranging anywhere from 1 to 12 inches in Amarillo, and 1 to 7 inches for Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Seminole, and Pecos TX. Out ahead of that cold front Rain and Thunderstorms stretched from Houston up to Dallas/Ft Worth and stretching northeastward to the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.

This is how I see allot of the Winter Storms starting out this winter forming coming out of the lower Rockies and tracking out across N-TX and up to the Ten-Ohio Valley as the Subtropical Jet Stream works with the Cold front's sliding south and eastward.

As the colder artic fronts move down it will be the timing of the upper lows and how they come together over Texas as to who gets the snow and ice and how much. If we see the same kind of upper low system we have now moving across Texas later on in the winter months (Dec-Feb) it will be VERY interesting across the state in a area form the Texas Panhandle down to Midland-Odessa over to Austin and up to Texarkana.

I believe at least 1 major Ice storm and 1 major Snow event will be in store for the N-Texas area this winter.
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Thu Nov 11, 2004 11:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#24 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 04, 2004 11:10 am

THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE HELPED
TEMPERATURES COOL INTO THE MID 30S IN THE WEST. GRAHAM EVEN BRIEFLY
REACHED 32 DEGREES BUT THIS WAS THE ONLY SITE THAT REACHED FREEZING.
EXPECT PATCHY MORNING FROST IN THE WEST...WITH A HEAVY DEW
ELSEWHERE.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
MID 60S IN THE NORTH AND THE LOWER 70S IN THE SOUTH. A REINFORCEMENT
OF DRY AIR WILL ARRIVE THIS EVENING AND HELP OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
TO COOL INTO THE MID 30S TO THE LOWER 40S...EXCEPT FOR MID 40S IN
THE SOUTHEAST. THINK THE WINDS SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
A WIDESPREAD FREEZE IN THE WEST TONIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL DOMINATE TEXAS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL MEANDER UNDER
THE MEAN RIDGE THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO EJECT OUT
MONDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE PACIFIC. THE BEST ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF NORTH
TEXAS...BUT WILL STILL WARRANT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A MORE POWERFUL SYSTEM IS PROGGED BY THE GFS TO AFFECT
NORTH TEXAS A WEEK FROM TODAY.
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#25 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 08, 2004 3:27 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
229 PM CST MON NOV 8 2004


.DISCUSSION...
WEAK CAA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE LINGERS ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL BRING
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS TO N TEXAS. HIGH SLIDES FAR ENOUGH
EAST FOR SFC FLOW TO BECOME MORE SRLY TUESDAY MORNING...BUT GULF
STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT CUT OFF...SO DEEP MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE
LIMITED PRIOR TO MUCH STRONGER COLD DUE IN TO N TEXAS LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING. SOME CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WITH THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND CURRENT ZONES HAVE THIS COVERED WELL
WITH LOW POPS. LOW POPS LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE LIMITED MOISTURE
AND THE BEST H5 LIFT FCST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE REGION.

WINDY AND MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURES ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH POSSIBLY THE FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON
FOR AT LEAST HALF OF N TEXAS FRIDAY MORNING. THE COOL WEATHER WILL
LINGER OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH SOME CHANCE OF SHRA SAT AND SUNDAY AS
NEXT H5 SHORTWAVE BRINGS ENERGY OVER LINGERING COLD AIR AT THE
SURFACE.


10-Day Forecast for: KENNEDALE, TX

Today: Sunny - High 77

Tonight: Partly cloudy - Low 50

Tuesday 11/9: Breezy with clouds and sun - High 66 / Low 54

Wednesday 11/10: Chance for a p.m. t-storm - High 70 / Low 48

Thursday 11/11: Chance of a little rain - High 54 / Low 32

Friday 11/12: Partly sunny and cold - High 48 / Low 32

Saturday 11/13: Mostly sunny and cold - High 50 / Low 36

Sunday 11/14: Mostly cloudy, rain possible - High 53 / Low 38

Monday 11/15: Mostly cloudy - High 52 / Low 34

Tuesday 11/16: Mainly cloudy - High 57 / Low 35

Wednesday 11/17: Clouds breaking for some sun - High 58 / Low 35
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#26 Postby gboudx » Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:22 pm

CC, where are you getting that 10 day forecast from? On the DFW NWS site, I only see a 6 day forecast.
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#27 Postby CaptinCrunch » Mon Nov 08, 2004 4:54 pm

Accuweather.com :)
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#28 Postby AggieSpirit » Tue Nov 09, 2004 4:49 pm

Low temps appear to be expected to be a bit warmer now going into this weekend and early next week.
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#29 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:25 am

NORTH TEXAS WILL EXPERIENCE A TRANSITION BACK TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BEGINNING THURSDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES. WE
SHOULD RETURN BACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES...AREAS NORTHWEST OF AN EASTLAND TO
BONHAM LINE HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOWS SATURDAY MORNING AT OR
BELOW FREEZING...BUT A HARD KILLING FREEZE IS NOT EXPECTED THIS TIME
AROUND.

SHORT RANGE MODELS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH H5
LOW WORKING E OVERNIGHT AND WEAKENING...WHILE STRONG SFC COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH ALL OF N TEXAS BEFORE MORNING. ETA DIV-Q FIELDS SHOW
STRONG DOWNWARD MOTIONS WEDNESDAY...SO MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD END
THUR MORNING. MUCH COOLER AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THUR INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH WIND CHILLS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.
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#30 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 11, 2004 10:07 am

SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
NEXT WEEK WITH CYCLOGENESIS FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF THE WESTERLIES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT ONE IS DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN IN THE WEST MONDAY... AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. NEWEST GFS_LR RUN INDICATES A THIRD ONE
FORMING LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BECOME A FULL CONTINENTAL TROUGH
AND COULD BRING US SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON JUST AHEAD
OF THANKSGIVING.


ONCE THIS AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA IT WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...THUS TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR A WHILE. HAVE BACKED OFF OF A FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT
IN THE NORTHWEST AS MAIN CORE OF THIS AIR MASS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INSTEAD OF THE MIDWEST.

THIS WEEKENDS DEVELOPING UPPER LOW OUT WEST COULD RESULT IN
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD AIR DOME OVER THE CWA...THUS HAVE LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. AS THE UPPER
LOW NEARS...IT WILL LIKELY TAP ONTO GULF MOISTURE AND A WARM
WEDGE...AND COULD BECOME A SIGNIFICANT RAIN PRODUCER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WARMER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS 850 TEMPS
INCREASE...THEN COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

.UPDATE...
CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT
EROSION OF STRATUS ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF NORTH TEXAS...LIKELY IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF DEPARTING
UPPER LOW. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODEL DATA FROM THE LATEST
ETA/GFS/NGM IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD
HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN EVEN IN AREAS THAT SEE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER. MOST SITES HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED THEIR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE
FOR THE DAY...AND WE WILL LEAVE THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.
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#31 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:17 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST FRI NOV 12 2004


.SHORT TERM...
COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS
POLAR HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/GT LAKES REGION
MAINTAINS IT/S HOLD ON N TX. STILL MONITORING SW CONUS UPPER LOW
WHICH ETA/GFS HANDLE IN A SIMILAR FASHION THROUGH 48 HRS (SUN
MORNING)...THEN DISCREPANCIES ARISE. ALONG/WEST OF I-35 IS WHERE WE
CONTINUE THE BEST BET FOR RAIN BY SAT AFTN...ATMOSPHERE SATURATES IN
RESPONSE TO NEGATIVE TILT S/W EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS LOW ACROSS
W-CENTRAL TX. TRICKY TO FIGURE OUT HOW FAR EWD WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
OCCUR...BUT FOR NOW WILL HOLD IT GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF I-35. WILL
MAINTAIN BEST POPS W/SW ZONES THROUGH SUNDAY...AS WEAK FORCING ALOFT
IN DIFLUENT FLOW AND MODEST UPSLOPE NELY LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW KEEP
OCCURS OUT WEST. NOT AN IDEAL WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS AT
ALL...BUT NOT REALLY ABNORMAL FOR MID NOVEMBER...ESPECIALLY DURING A
MILD EL-NINO SET UP OVER THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC THAT IS FCST LAST
THROUGH THE COOL SEASON (WETTER/COOLER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS).

&&

.LONG TERM...
SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW BEGINS IT/S PUSH EWD TOWARD TX BY TUES INTO
WED...WITH DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS ON TRACK (GFS FURTHEST SOUTH
OVER NRN MEXICO...ECMWF FURTHEST NWD OVER TX PANHANDLE...WITH UKMET
/CANADIAN/DGEX OVER PERMIAN BASIN). WE FEEL UPSTREAM RIDGE ON GFS IS
TOO AMPLIFIED WITH ERN PACIFIC KICKER SYSTEM TOO STRONG...THUS
MOVING UPPER LOW TOO SLOWLY AND TOO FAR SOUTH. KICKER SYSTEM LOOKS
TOO FAST/TOO CLOSE TO FIRST UPPER LOW...THUS FELT UKMET/CANADIAN
MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TRACK THE WAY TO GO WHICH NCEP/HPC AGREEING ON
THIS THOUGHT AS WELL. AS SUCH...GOOD RAIN EVENT BY TUES NIGHT INTO
WED...BEFORE SYSTEM DEPARTS INTO MS VALLEY BY THURS. WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH BY THEN WITH DRY/COOL ZONAL FLOW IN PLACE LATE WEEK.
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#32 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 16, 2004 8:44 am

RAINFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. AFTER
CONSULTING WITH THE NORMAN OFFICE (OUR THANKS TO THEM!) WE HAVE
AGREED THAT THE MOST LIKELY PERIODS FOR POSSIBLE HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THUS...WE HAVE CALLED FOR "RAIN HEAVY AT
TIMES" WITHIN THAT TIME FRAME.

HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...WITH PRECIP DIMINISHING
AFTER THAT TIME. HOWEVER...IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAINFALL. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
PRECIP AMOUNTS OVER THE WEEKEND...INTO EARLY NEXT...SHOULD BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER THAN WHAT WE EXPECT FOR THIS WEEK.

ALONG WITH LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN...COOLER...AND EVENTUALLY COLDER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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#33 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 18, 2004 9:00 am

DFW BROKE A 97 YEAR OLD RECORD FOR NOV 17 PRECIP...RECORDING 1.71.
LOOKS LIKE THE WET YEAR CONTINUES. FRONT WILL BACK UP FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AT THAT TIME...BEGINNING IN THE
SOUTH. COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS CWA ON SATURDAY EVENING AND WILL DRY
THINGS OUT FOR A DAY OR TWO.
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#34 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Nov 18, 2004 4:26 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
254 PM CST THU NOV 18 2004

.DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN OF THE PAST WEEK WILL EVOLVE INTO A
MORE HIGHLY AMPLITUDE PATTERN THIS WEEKEND WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A
FULL CONTINENTAL TROUGH THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THANKSGIVING AND
NEXT WEEKEND. NORTH PACIFIC SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE DOWN THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY...CREATING ANOTHER SOUTHERN BRANCH UPPER LOW
SIMILAR TO THE ONE THIS WEEK. THIS UPPER LOW SHOULD TRACK ALONG THE
US-MEXICAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AND ACROSS TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC OVERRUNNING PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM... AND HEAVY RAINFALL AND A POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE - FIRST OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN COUNTIES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING... AND MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

EXITING UPPER LOW OVER SW MISSOURI WITH WRAP AROUND FLOW OVER THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BREAK OVER THE SOUTHWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...EXPECT A RETURN OF MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
BY DAYBREAK. FRIDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH CONVECTION AND
STRATIFORM PRECIPITATION RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL LI/S BECOME MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY.

AFTER TUESDAYS SYSTEM MOVES OUT... COOLER DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND ON THANKSGIVING DAY. HOWEVER... MODELS
ARE HAVING RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY PROBLEMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. NEWEST
GFS LONG RANGE IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS RUN IN MOVING UPPER LOW THE
REGION. WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND UKMET ARE EVEN FASTER AND TAKE A MORE
NORTHERN TRACK ACROSS OKLAHOMA. DECIDED TO STAY CLOSE TO THE GFSLR
TRACK AND TIMING FOR NOW.

MOS NUMBERS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER AND DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR
THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOVE NORMAL WHILE IT RAINS THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
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#35 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 23, 2004 9:38 am

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND BRING
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR. THIS COULD RESULT IN THE FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF NORTH
TEXAS THANKSGIVING MORNING.
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#36 Postby CaptinCrunch » Tue Nov 23, 2004 5:09 pm

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
340 PM CST TUE NOV 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING
-RA IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A COOLER DAY ALONG WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. AS
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY MORNING...
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BELOW FREEZING IN MANY
AREAS...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST/NORTH AND WEST OF THE DFW METROPLEX.
PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PERSIST FOR THE REMINDER OF THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AS MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME REMAINS LARGELY ZONAL ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS.

A WEAK VORT MAX WILL LIKELY SPREAD CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BEGINNING
ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT QUESTIONABLE DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN AND
NORTHERN TRACK OF SYSTEM PRECLUDE MENTIONING POPS ATTM. THE LATEST
ECMWF/GFS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A STRONGER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE AREA ON MONDAY/TUESDAY...AND HAVE MAINTAINED THE
INHERITED CHANCE POPS FOR THIS PERIOD...AS ANOTHER STRONG FRONT
LOOKS TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY.
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#37 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 24, 2004 9:16 am

Freeze Warning

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1107 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004


TXZ091>095-100>107-115>117-123-129>132-141>144-156-157-250200-
BOSQUE TX-COLLIN TX-COMANCHE TX-COOKE TX-CORYELL TX-DELTA TX-
DENTON TX-EASTLAND TX-ERATH TX-FANNIN TX-GRAYSON TX-HAMILTON TX-
HOOD TX-HOPKINS TX-HUNT TX-JACK TX-LAMAR TX-LAMPASAS TX-MILLS TX-
MONTAGUE TX-PALO PINTO TX-PARKER TX-RAINS TX-SOMERVELL TX-
STEPHENS TX-WISE TX-YOUNG TX-
1107 AM CST WED NOV 24 2004

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
THURSDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH TEXAS HAS ISSUED A FREEZE
WARNING FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS.

VERY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING INTO NORTH TEXAS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA TO FALL BELOW FREEZING ON THURSDAY
MORNING.


KENNEDALE, TX

Today - Clearing and windy - High 52

Tonight - Clear and moonlit - Low 31

Thursday 11/25 -Mostly sunny - High 56 / Low 46

Friday 11/26 - Partly sunny and breezy - High 67 / Low 48

Saturday 11/27 - Partly sunny - High 59 / Low 39

Sunday 11/28 - Mostly cloudy - High 58 / Low 43

Monday 11/29 - Mostly cloudy, rain possible - High 58 / Low 42

Tuesday 11/30 - Chance for rain - High 54 / Low 40

Wednesday 12/1 - Sunny - High 55 / Low 34

Thursday 12/2 - Mostly sunny - High 56 / Low 33

Friday 12/3 - Mostly sunny - High 57 / Low 35
Last edited by CaptinCrunch on Wed Nov 24, 2004 1:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#38 Postby aggiecutter » Wed Nov 24, 2004 12:26 pm

CaptinCrunch, you might find this thread interesting...

http://www5.wright-weather.com/bb/showt ... adid=37293
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#39 Postby CaptinCrunch » Wed Nov 24, 2004 1:02 pm

Thanks, but I don't see snow for N-central Tx just yet, maybe by mid December.

I think we will get our first offical freeze of the year Thanksgiving morning. :)
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#40 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Nov 25, 2004 9:37 am

Got my first freeze last night. BTW, Bastardi in his column this morning thinks that snow and ice is a possibility for Dallas Tuesday and Tuesday night, atleast a changeover before the precip ends. His reasoning the GFS is underdone with the cold air Sunday through Tuesday.

12z GFS is now trending toward this possibility.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _150.shtml
Last edited by aggiecutter on Thu Nov 25, 2004 9:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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