First Snow for TEXAS!!

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
710 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.DISCUSSION...
RUNNING WAY WAY BEHIND THIS MORNING WITH MAJOR CHANGES DONE TO ALL
GRIDS FIRST 4 PERIODS. BASICALLY...UPPER LVL LOW IS SLOWER AND
DIGGING FURTHER S SO PRECIP THREAT LINGERS INTO TUE...ESPECIALLY SRN
AND ERN ZNS. TIMING OF COLD AIR WILL DICTATE ONSET OF SNOW. HAVE
TRIED TO TIME IN THAT FASHION IN THE GRIDS...BASICALLY A CHANGEOVER
TO SNOW IN NW THIS AFTN...SPREADING SEWD TO SCNTRL TX PNHDL LATER
TONIGHT. DID HAVE SOME SORT OF MIX ERN ZNS TUE MORNING...THEN BACK
TO RAIN. THE WINDS WILL PLAY HAVOC AS WELL...WITH WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA MET. TO MAKE LIFE AS SIMPLE AS POSSIBLE....HAVE GONE WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORIES WRN AND CNTRL SECTIONS
BEGINNING THIS AFTN NWRN ZNS...SPREADING SEWD TO SCNTRL TX PNHDL
TNGT. HAVE KEPT ACCUMULATIONS 4 INCHES OR BELOW DURG ENTIRE
ADVISORY PERIOD. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME SPOTS MAY HAVE
MORE...ESPECIALLY UP AGAINST SERN CO AND NERN NM. TOUGH CALL ON
THIS AS WARM GROUND TEMPS MAY MELT SNOW AT FIRST...LIMITING
ACCUMULATION SOMEWHAT. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
IMPROVING WX FROM NW TO SE DURG THE DAY ON TUESDAY. HARD FRZ
LIKELY TUE NIGHT MOST AREAS. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH BEYOND DAY 4 AS
PREVIOUS GRIDS SUPPORT NEW MODEL TRENDS. PLENTY OF HIGHLIGHTS BELOW.


Today: Rain likely, mainly after noon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Increasing clouds, with a temperature rising to near 48 by 10am, then falling to around 39 during the remainder of the day. Wind chill values between 26 and 31. Windy, with a north wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph.

Tonight: Occasional rain before 10pm, then occasional snow between 10pm and midnight, then occasional rain between midnight and 1am, then occasional snow after 1am. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Low around 30. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Windy, with a north wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

Election Day: Snow likely, mainly before 1pm. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Wind chill values between 16 and 26. Windy, with a north wind between 15 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. New snow accumulation of around 1 inch.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low near 26. Wind chill values between 16 and 21. North northwest wind around 10 mph becoming west southwest.

[CaptinCrunch]

THE STRONGEST COLD FRONT OF THE FALL SEASON WILL RUSH THROUGH THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL USHER
IN MUCH COLDER AIR ON STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25
TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH ARE LIKELY.

A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WEST TEXAS DURING ELECTION
DAY. LIGHT RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
LATE THIS MORNING. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...
CHANGING THE RAIN OVER TO A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FURTHER SOUTH...RAIN WILL
CONTINUE. THE MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVER
THE NORTHWEST WITH A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE
LUBBOCK METROPOLITAN AREA.

ALL REGIONS SHOULD SEE A CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE ELECTION DAY.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA ON ELECTION DAY. THE STORM SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE EAST
OF THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS ON ELECTION DAY
WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF AND ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. TOTAL SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ACROSS THE LUBBOCK METROPOLITAN AREA AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS
OF THE SOUTH PLAINS.

[verycoolnin]

The Texas Panhandle has seen 5-7in of snow already.

[CaptinCrunch]

TEXAS has received it's first Winter Storm of the season bringing SNOW and freezing temps from the Texas Panhandle down to the Davis Mountains with snowfall ranging anywhere from 1 to 7 inches in Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland-Odessa, Seminole, and Pecos TX. Out ahead of the cold front Rain and Thunderstorms from Dallas/Ft Worth down to Houston and stretching northeastward into the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast.

This is how I see allot of the Winter Storms starting out this winter forming coming out of the lower Rockies and tracking out across TX and up to the Ten-Ohio Valley as the Subtropical Jet Stream works with the Cold front's sliding south and eastward.

As the colder artic fronts move down it will be the timing of the upper lows and how they come together over Texas as to who gets the snow and ice and how much. If we see the same kind of upper low system we have now moving across Texas later on in the winter months (Dec-Feb) it will be VERY interesting across the state in a area form the Texas Panhandle down to Midland-Odessa over to Austin and up to Texarkana.

I believe at least 1 major Ice storm and 1 major Snow event will be in store for the N-Texas area this winter.

[verycoolnin]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/LUB/SPSLBB