Hurricane Isidore...

[HurricaneBill]

Geez, how was Isidore only a 3? He looks like a 5 easily. Almost Camille-esque. He had a perfectly small, clear eye, deep convection, perfect CDO, perfect outflow. Did they underestimate his intensity?

The sustained winds were 125 mph, but the pressure was 934 mb. I think the pressure plunged, but the winds didn't have time to catch up.

[Stormsfury]

I just can't believe it actually went south. That was a pretty big surprise that night.

Interestingly enough, the GFDL nailed the southward movement into the Yucatan ...

[Stormsfury]

Well, I would think that would not happen since it really strengthened as it made landfall. Nevertheless, In my opinion, Hurricane Isidore would have been a category 4/5 hurricane in Grand Isle, LA.

Three reasons, hypothetically on why Isidore's winds didn't reflect such a deep pressure ...

1) Environmental pressures were fairly low around the cyclone.
2) Very large cloud canopy envelope and circulation ... takes a larger cyclone much longer for the pressure/wind relation to correlate vs. a smaller cyclone such as Charley ...
3) Interference from land disrupting the circulation inflow ...

Also, just because conditions are favorable for a TS, doesnt make them favorable for a hurricane. I have done a lot of research and it will be published hopefully within a year indicating that a major hurricane requires much mroe favorable conditions to intensify then does a TS. Isidore likely would have been a cat 1 or a 2 at landfall as slow as it was moving

After Tropical Storm Isidore finally left the Yucatan Peninsula, the inner core of the cyclone had completely collapsed and never could regain any sustainable convective activity around the low ... and more resembled a subtropical cyclone (in regards to expansive wind field) ....

SF

[Derek Ortt]

even if it hadnt broken apart, i likely would have had problems as shear increased just before landfall and there was some very dry air that moved near the storm. we likely would have had an ivan where the storm collapsed in the final 3 hours before hitting the coast

[Anonymous]

Yes. But Ivan was a weak 4 that weakened into a weak 3. Isidore would have been a strong 4/5 weakened to a strong 3/4.

[Derek Ortt]

ivan was a 5 that weakened to a weak 3. It was stronger tha isidore likely would have been at a similar latitude.

The GOM has a hard time supporting a large cat 5 due to the lack of the oceanic heat content. That is why the storms that did really explode in the GOM, like Charley were smaller storms where SST played the rolem, not heat content

[HurricaneBill]

ivan was a 5 that weakened to a weak 3. It was stronger tha isidore likely would have been at a similar latitude.

The GOM has a hard time supporting a large cat 5 due to the lack of the oceanic heat content. That is why the storms that did really explode in the GOM, like Charley were smaller storms where SST played the rolem, not heat content

So a larger storm would have a difficult time because it'd use up the heat content, while a smaller storm means less heat content gets used up.

Am I getting this right?

[Derek Ortt]

that would likely be the case because the larger storm ahs a larger wind field, which stirs up the water more

[Anonymous]

Well Derek, if not Isidore, than one place got lucky this year. FLORIDA. NOT FROM CHARLEY HITTING TAMPA, or IVAN IN NEW ORLEANS....IT WAS FRANCES! Frances was forecast to hit the populated east coast of Florida at 145 mph. FRANCES WAS THE COSTLIEST HURRICANE. MR. SHEAR and MR. DRY AIR saved Florida though. I MEAN, THAT WAS GOING TO HAPPEN.

[Derek Ortt]

Frances still came in with 110 m.p.h. winds according to the preliminary best track and it moved so slow.

Not sure if the damage would have exceeded 20 billion or not, since Jeanne came in as a strong 3 (areas that were spared by Frances were devastated by Jeanne). So while ZFlorida got lucky from Frances, C fla didnt from Jeanne

[Anonymous]

Big difference between 120-125 and 145-150 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

also, frances re-intensified into a 95KT hurricane, after weakening to 85KT at landfall.

Frances just as easily could have weakened to a cat 1 before landfall, but it got its act together quite a bit over the gulfstream and almost regained major hurricane status as it made landfall

[Anonymous]

also, frances re-intensified into a 95KT hurricane, after weakening to 85KT at landfall.

Frances just as easily could have weakened to a cat 1 before landfall, but it got its act together quite a bit over the gulfstream and almost regained major hurricane status as it made landfall

Had it stayed 145 mph...Instead of Geraldo on Juno Beach in 40 mph winds...it would have been 140 mph.

[Derek Ortt]

the point is, NOBODY is saying that C fla was lucky and to say that it was lucky is 100% irresponsible.

I sure wouldnt go to C fla, see the destruction, and say how lucky they were.