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SYNOPSIS: A pattern change will be occurring at the beginning of the Assessment period as a trough briefly deepens in the Northeast. However, the latest model runs are not as amplified with this trough. Thefefore, only below-normal temperatures and lake-effect snow showers are expected behind a cold frontal passage during the 3-5 Day period. Farther south, river flooding continues to slowly recede in north-central Florida. Elsewhere, a cut-off low will move from the Southwest into the Great Plains. Meanwhile, on November 7, a fast-moving low pressure system will affect the Olympic peninsula with heavy rain and gusty winds. Gale force winds will likely affect coastal Alaska on November 8 as another strong low tracks into the Gulf of Alaska. During the 6 - 10 Day period, an arctic cold front may sweep across the central and eastern U.S. Unseasonably cold temperatures are possible during this time period. Across the East, models are becoming more consistent in forecasting a colder-than-normal pattern and stormy weather during the week 2 period.
HAZARDS
On November 7, a fast-moving low from the Pacific will spread heavy rain into the Olympic peninsula and adjacent areas of British Columbia.
On November 8, a strengthening low pressure system will bring gale force winds to the Aleutians along with the peninsula and southeast portions of Alaska.
Although recent precipiation during October has decreased the extent of severe drought, a long-term drought continues across much of the West. From November 7 - 9, rain showers and high-elevation snow are expected in southern California, the Southwest, and southern Rockies.
DETAILED SUMMARY
For Sunday November 7 - Tuesday November 9, 2004: A brief deepening of a trough in the Northeast will allow colder temperatures to spread from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Northwesterly flow will lead to lake-effect snow showers on November 7 and 8. A widespread freeze remains possible over the Mid-Atlantic on November 9. Elsewhere, a cut-off low will eject from southern California into the Great Plains. Rain showers and high-elevation snow will be associated with this featue as it progresses across the Southwest. Meanwhile, heavy rain and gusty winds will likely affect the Olympic peninsula as a fast-moving low pressure system moves from the northern Pacific into western Canada. On November 8, gale force winds will return to the Aleutians and the Alaskan peninsula.
For Wednesday November 10 - Sunday November 14, 2004: The GFS model is forecasting a strong cold front to sweep across the central and eastern U.S. Unseasonably cold temperatues will likely follow the frontal passage from the Great Plains to the East Coast. In addition, lake-effect snows could become heavy. Towards the end of this time period, the weather pattern will become more favorable for cyclogenesis along the East Coast. Elsewhere, dry, warm weather will return to California and the Southwest. Another intense area of low pressure will maintain coastal gales and heavy precipitation in Alaska.
For Monday November 15 - Thursday November 18, 2004: Extended model runs indicate that a trough will strenthen over the East while a flat ridge dominates the West. Confidence in this weather pattern has improved recently, and the East could experience a cold and stormy mid-NOvember
Just thought that this seems interesting coming from the CPC.
LINK TO CPC HAZARD