Western Caribbean

[boca]

What's the deal on that area?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 83W/84W S OF
20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH BUT A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED WITH NO SIGNS
OF DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM IS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE FOR THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF
LINE 17N78W-17N83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W TO 17N78W AND WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM
17N83W TO JUST INLAND OVER BELIZE.



There is nothing there to look at in terms of organizing into a tropical cyclone.

[weatherwindow]

do any of the models suggest development under that amplifying ridge in the gulf of honduras....it would seem as though, if any area could support dev, it would be there

[Sanibel]

Watch this one even if it doesn't develop. The right elements are there for a late-bloomer...

[weatherwindow]

take a look at this loop...about 1900Z....sure looks interesting, maybe an incipient center around cape gracias a dios, nicaragua. pressure has fallen 5mb at bluefields over the last 48hrs. light NNW wind....could be something if it remains offshore http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[cycloneye]

CARIBBEAN...
THE W CARIBBEAN REMAINS THE MOST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF DEEP
CONVECTION COURTESY OF A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 88W. BROADLY
DIVERGENT FLOW IS OVER THE AREA ENHANCING THE WAVE'S CONVECTION.
THE DIVERGENT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING ANTICYCLONE OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN. DEEPER MOISTURE IS SLOWLY PUSHING TOWARD
CUBA.

[Anonymous]

UH OH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE?

[Stormsfury]

UH OH. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE?

Caused by the trailing frontal boundary that extends all the way to the Yucatan ... flow is broadly divergent in response to the passage of the trough ... don't get too excited ...

however, something Day 6/7 in the W ATL catches my attention ... right now, potential for a cutoff low as the ECMWF progs a 1000mb SFC low and associated cutoff E of the Bahamas ...

Massive high from Central Canada builds into the E US (strengthening to 1041 mb by Day 6/7), classical CAD and wedge-like scenario if the features were placed 750 miles further W ... but another classical El Niño WEST - ECMWF progged look with yet ANOTHER cutoff low potential ...



ECMWF Day 7 500mb

ECMWF Day 7 SFC features

[weatherwindow]

noticed that low captured by a wraparound high....looked to have the potential for trop dev as it appears protected from UL westerlies. as it is appears at hr168, couldnt follow it any further....do you think it would move west as the western edge of the high lifts a bit north?

[Sanibel]

It looks like it was trying to organize and curve. However the center has passed to EPAC.


It could branch off a second Low in the west Caribbean nook over there mainly because the trough lobe tends to do that in this synoptic...

[Stormsfury]

noticed that low captured by a wraparound high....looked to have the potential for trop dev as it appears protected from UL westerlies. as it is appears at hr168, couldnt follow it any further....do you think it would move west as the western edge of the high lifts a bit north?

Actually, watch the movement of the ECMWF proggs on this loop below ... as the trough swings out, a s/w develops into a SFC low in response to the 500mb trough swinging through, and is pulling NE, but is left behind. JET lifts NWD and leaves behind the SFC and the 500mb feature and pretty much cuts off PER ECMWF while drifting back towards the SW, blocked off by a strong HIGH in the NE/N ATL and a chilly high pressure at that...

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

ECMWF 3 day avg ... Days 8-10 eventually draws the system NWD as a full latitude trough goes NEG TILT and stretches clear down to the Bahamas from the Hudson Bay Vortex ... notice STRONG blocking at the North Pole (Arctic Oscillation goes positive), and indications of a possible pattern change...but NO true -NAO signal, blocking Azores High, but this is NOT a -NAO signal ...

SW'ern states cutoff remains in place ....

SF

[weatherwindow]

SF..check out the jma 12Z surface pressure loop....http://net.psu.edu/trop/tcgenfgifs/...... another depiction of the evolution of the low