season not over for florida

[HurricaneBill]

But its November.... =o

In 1925, a hurricane made landfall on Florida on December 1st. It was a minimal Category 1.

[tronbunny]

So, then, after the latest runs, what do you see Derek?

[weatherwindow]

just looked at the 18Z cmc and 12Z nogaps and the 12Z jma and 12Z ukmet, all are still indicating the a similiar scenario, differing timing and location. cmc, nogaps and jma remain clustered in the same general vicinity. cmc- central bahamas, nogaps- hispaniola/pr, jma- east of north central fla, ukmet- more north and east. cmc and jma are deepest with cmc still projecting major hurricane moving slowly west close to ragged island, bahamas....if this is going to verify, we should start seeing some energy advecting north out of the sw carib beginning day 3/4 toward hispaniola....time will tell

[PurdueWx80]

00Z GEM...tropical-ish storm becomes baroclinically enhanced and turns into a NASTY storm off the Atlantic US coast.

[HurricaneBill]

Do you think it'll become a nor'easter?

[weatherwindow]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/.......a link to 144hr avn, cmc, nogaps, ukmet, jma runs...a synopsis of the 6nov 00Z.....cmc(canadian) and nogaps are in reasonably close agreement, depicting a major hurricane in the central to western bahamas moving slowly west to west-northwest at 144hours. ukmet and jma suggest a similiar cutoff development but much slower with a broad circulation still in the south central carib. finally, the gfs is hinting at something similiar in day 6/7 06Z run.....if the cmc and nogaps verify, it would be unprecedented for the bahamas this late in the season...to say nothing of the east coast of fla

[weatherwindow]

oops, not an updated nogaps....try http:/met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs

[Scorpion]

Now I am interested. Hopefully something will form this time.

[cyclonaut]

Somethings going down in the coming days,lets see what unfolds & who if anyone gets affected by this.....

[Hurricanehink]

Reminds me a little of Gordon from 1994. November storm. Goes westward after Northeastward in caribbean. I wouldn't mind seeing Otto, but please leave Florida alone if you do come.

[StormChasr]

Overreaction time here--it isn't happening. TOO COLD in Florida, at least through midweek. If anything at all develops--out to sea. I think the models are seing things that nature isn't providing.

[Stormsfury]

CMC warm bias at work ... that's a very deep trough, and this model did this several times last year around the same time developing tropical systems that eventually phased becoming superstorms ... I don't buy this one bit ...

SST's are still fairly warm, but to support a major hurricane, cold core 1041mb HIGH's don't help with dry air entrainment, even from that far away ... notice the weakness in between the two significant SFC high pressures, and clearly an associated frontal boundary ...

Something WILL develop out there, most likely a hybridish like feature, but a hurricane/major hurricane ... not so sure about that ... just got home, and will need to review datasets before a final preliminary thoughts are posted ...

SF