Circulation with excellent outflow...

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Anonymous

Circulation with excellent outflow...

#1 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:17 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

I am becoming increasingly more convinced that this system is going to develop

The system has a good circulation, and has very good outflow (More typical of a mature hurricane)

If this system develops, I have no doubt it would be a tropical storm, and then a hurricane. Also, Caribbean or Bahamas...I would also think a major hurricane. For all we know, Category 3-4 Hurricane Otto may be with us next week.
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#2 Postby yoda » Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:20 am

Well, as some have said in another thread.. this looks to be either BE/BI forced/enhanced. (I hope I am getting that right) Only the CMC is developing this into a monster... but lets check for dry air and shear before we get too far into anything... :D
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#3 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:32 am

"before we get too far into anything" ---- Its not every year that a model forecasts a category 4 hurricane on the doorstep of the Bahamas in November.

Besides, the thing we have to watch, is that...It just dont pop up in the model, it comes from a system WE ARE REALLY WATCHING.
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#4 Postby yoda » Sat Nov 06, 2004 1:37 am

~Floydbuster wrote:"before we get too far into anything" ---- Its not every year that a model forecasts a category 4 hurricane on the doorstep of the Bahamas in November.

Besides, the thing we have to watch, is that...It just dont pop up in the model, it comes from a system WE ARE REALLY WATCHING.


True. But one must think of the CMC track though as well. We saw the problem it had with Ivan. We will wait and see. It will be Tuesday before anything gets going though. Hmmmm, when was the last time a BE system reached major hurricane status if the CMC by some weird chance is correct? I think it was Alex... :D
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#5 Postby boca » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:10 am

Where are you guys seeing this,I just see a disorganized little mess off Honduras slowly fading away.
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#6 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:11 am

No...it may have lost convection, but look at the spin, and the exaust out of it.
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#7 Postby boca » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:16 am

Floybuster, I must be dumb I can't see what your seeing. Is it off of Honduras?
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#8 Postby boca » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:19 am

Is it right along the coast because I saw it on the visible shot.
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#9 Postby Sanibel » Sat Nov 06, 2004 2:30 am

A huge cold air dam is crashing on top of it from CONUS. I see the spin, but I also only see a weak circulation drifting into Honduras. The SW flow up the edge of the trough better grab it or it will just fade over land...
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#10 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:16 am

THIS IS WHAT I SEE:
Image

If that stays over those warm waters, with not too much shear, upper level divergence, and a good moisture envelope...Something is going to happen.
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#11 Postby yoda » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:17 am

We will see. It has to pull away from the CA though...
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#12 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:20 am

Well, if it stays like it is, I fear the friction from C.A may help tighten the circualtion.
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#13 Postby yoda » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:22 am

~Floydbuster wrote:Well, if it stays like it is, I fear the friction from C.A may help tighten the circualtion.


Hmmm, interesting. But the CA could disrupt it due to land interaction and mt. inflow.
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#14 Postby Anonymous » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:26 am

See...here was my thinking

CMC forecasts major hurricane in Bahamas in a run...WOAH

CMC backs off that forecast in next run....SEEMED FARFETCHED ANYWAY

CMC forecasts major hurricane AGAIN in third run...OK...NOW I AM INTERESTED
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#15 Postby yoda » Sat Nov 06, 2004 3:31 am

~Floydbuster wrote:See...here was my thinking

CMC forecasts major hurricane in Bahamas in a run...WOAH

CMC backs off that forecast in next run....SEEMED FARFETCHED ANYWAY

CMC forecasts major hurricane AGAIN in third run...OK...NOW I AM INTERESTED


Remember what the CMC did with Ivan though...
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Derek Ortt

#16 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Nov 06, 2004 6:50 am

yeah,

the CMC was the only model indicating a CGOM threat while the others were into s fla (except for nogaps)
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#17 Postby wxman57 » Sat Nov 06, 2004 8:49 am

There's nothing down there at all. You're just looking at movement of cirrus clouds on that satellite loop. Here's a surface plot I just made (12Z Saturday). It's certaily possible that a surface low may develop down there in 2-4 days, but not today:

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/carib.gif">
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#18 Postby SouthernWx » Sat Nov 06, 2004 8:58 am

We're now in November....there's never been a landfalling cat-3 in south Florida later than October 25th, much less a cat-4.
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#19 Postby Josephine96 » Sat Nov 06, 2004 10:05 am

Local mets aren't even talking tropics anymore.. so I'm left in the dark
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#20 Postby weatherwindow » Sat Nov 06, 2004 11:59 am

josephine...try this link...gives a nice comparison of models....http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/....
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