Ingredients for Winter 2004-05 Continue to Fall into Place

[donsutherland1]

The new snowcover data for September and October reinforces the early ideas concerning snowfall for Winter 2004-05 as outlined in my preliminary winter outlook. In addition, it increasingly appears that the NAO will be predominantly below zero this coming winter.

1) From the global approach I've been examining with regard to the NAO, I am increasingly confident that the NAO will average below 0 both for the December-February and longer December-March periods.

2) The North American and Northern Hemisphere snowcover seem to be evolving as one would expect for a snowy winter in Boston and possibly down to NYC.

Some years that come up with North American snowcover trends:

1993-94
1996-97
2000-01
2002-03
2003-04

Some years that come up with Northern Hemisphere snowcover trends:

1993-94
1999-00
2001-02
2002-03

Common years:
1993-94
2002-03

Big clue: If November's Northern Hemisphere snowcover reaches 34 million square kilometers or more, one can throw out such winters as 1999-00 and 2001-02.

[greg81988]

What happened in 99-00 and 01-02? Did we not get a lot of snow or what? Basically I'm asking if the snowcover reaches 34 million square kilometers what will the winter be like? Also could you type back at the end of November to let us know how much it did reach or give us the website to see the graphics.
thanks

[donsutherland1]

Greg81988,

Those were two very poor winters in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Snowfall totals for select cities follow:

Code: Select all

Winter   Boston   NYC   Wash.
1999-00   24.9"   16.3"   15.4"
2001-02   15.1"    3.5"    3.2"


I strongly doubt that we'll see less than 34 million square kilometers of Northern Hemisphere snowcover by the end of November. A lot of additional data also points to far better winters than 1999-00 and 2001-02.

In any case, I will follow up with the November figure when it comes out (early December?) as it will be another milestone that indicates whether the overall winter ideas are on or off track.

[wxguy25]

Don, GREAT posts as always. The OCT 2004 NH snowcover extent is the third greatest since 1973 behind only 1976, and 2002.

two points regarding that.

1. The Above normal snowcover should help to intensify the Siberian high and promote a mostly -AO over the next few months like we saw in 1976 and 2002.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... o.1976.gif



2. You can already eliminate 1999-00 and 2001-02 b/c of the La nina in 1999-00 and 2001-02 was a solar maximum winter. Plus, since the middle of OCT there has been an unusually fast buildup of cold air over the pole.

Notice the -25 to -30 C air located along the Arctic coast of greenland in association w/ the PV.





As far as the NAO is concerned, all we have to do is look at the trend over the past month or so.



OCT 2004 has seen a strongly -NAO in the means for the month with plenty of blocking. this should be a sign of things to come for the next few months.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Wonderful Post, wxguy25! (Just wondering, why did you changed your name?)

This Winter just might be a 2002-2003 combo?

[wxguy25]

Wonderful Post, wxguy25! (Just wondering, why did you changed your name?)

Changed my ISP

This Winter just might be a 2002-2003 combo?

I think this winter may end up like the winter of 1968-69 if the East pacific signal remains the same. Graphics to follow later tonight.

[Stormsfury]

I do have one little short term wildcard, since 10.7cm solar flux will see a short term spike upward with the latest round of CME's, including an M7 class flare on Nov. 6th, and an X1 class flare on Nov. 7th ...

Aslkahuna reported on another thread in US weather watch that an X2 proton flare was produced today and quite likely sent out an Earthbound CME...

The state of the way NEG NAO also makes more sense to me on why tropical activity really lacked in October aside from a couple of sickly entities ...

SF

[wxguy25]

I do have one little short term wildcard, since 10.7cm solar flux will see a short term spike upward with the latest round of CME's, including an M7 class flare on Nov. 6th, and an X1 class flare on Nov. 7th ...

Aslkahuna reported on another thread in US weather watch that an X2 proton flare was produced today and quite likely sent out an Earthbound CME...

The state of the way NEG NAO also makes more sense to me on why tropical activity really lacked in October aside from a couple of sickly entities ...

SF

That could keep the NAO positive in the short term and perhaps prevent the development of the Aleutian low once the MJO pulse arrives for the last half of NOV and into DEC.

[Wnghs2007]

Im moving to Alaska! Im tired of this never getting cold and no snow. I think the weather gods are ticked at us in the east and especially Georgia. I may never see any winter weather ever again in Georgia. The way thing are going now nothing good will come to frutation of this winter. :pounds head on wall in frustration:


And Im fixing to protest the evil GFS. They should not have it giving people these friggen non-exsistent fantasy storms that are making me lust for something as in maybe a ice storm or even cold weather that will never happen.

[wxguy25]

Im moving to Alaska! Im tired of this never getting cold and no snow. I think the weather gods are ticked at us in the east and especially Georgia. I may never see any winter weather ever again in Georgia. The way thing are going now nothing good will come to frutation of this winter. :pounds head on wall in frustration:


And Im fixing to protest the evil GFS. They should not have it giving people these friggen non-exsistent fantasy storms that are making me lust for something as in maybe a ice storm or even cold weather that will never happen.

KC, just give it time, pal. The cold and snow will arrive in the east soon. Even in one of the warmest winters on record (2001-02) Atlanta saw significant snow around new years.

[yoda]

Im moving to Alaska! Im tired of this never getting cold and no snow. I think the weather gods are ticked at us in the east and especially Georgia. I may never see any winter weather ever again in Georgia. The way thing are going now nothing good will come to frutation of this winter. :pounds head on wall in frustration:


And Im fixing to protest the evil GFS. They should not have it giving people these friggen non-exsistent fantasy storms that are making me lust for something as in maybe a ice storm or even cold weather that will never happen.

KC, what would you do if there was a drought of snow up there?

I think this winter may end up like the winter of 1968-69 if the East pacific signal remains the same. Graphics to follow later tonight.

That is most interesting. I can't wait to see the graphics when you post them. Now I have to go do some research on the 1968-69 winter here in DC area...

[wxguy25]

I'll save you the time.

1968-69 9.1" In DCA, 18.6 in BWI. 23.9" In dulles, VA.

[yoda]

I'll save you the time.

1968-69 9.1" In DCA, 18.6 in BWI. 23.9" In dulles, VA.

Thanks.

One must wonder though, why such the big difference? Why would BWI have twice the amt as DCA does? Most interesting...

I would like to see a good 20+ inches of snow though...

[wxguy25]

I'll save you the time.

1968-69 9.1" In DCA, 18.6 in BWI. 23.9" In dulles, VA.

Thanks.

One must wonder though, why such the big difference? Why would BWI have twice the amt as DCA does? Most interesting...

I would like to see a good 20+ inches of snow though...

1968-69 is the quintessence of a DC screw winter.

[yoda]

I'll save you the time.

1968-69 9.1" In DCA, 18.6 in BWI. 23.9" In dulles, VA.

Thanks.

One must wonder though, why such the big difference? Why would BWI have twice the amt as DCA does? Most interesting...

I would like to see a good 20+ inches of snow though...

1968-69 is the quintessence of a DC screw winter.

Ah, good use of terms there Wxguy...

[Wnghs2007]

Lets see if this works


The only snow I saw last winter....And I dont want this to be a only 1 snow winter....2 or 3 would suffice



Then this



And finally




From Feb 25-26 storm....Got 2-4" of snow...When 50 miles up I-85 in Greenville area they had 2 feet...SCREWDOME for me...

[yoda]

Looks to be about 2-3 inches there, but that is solely based on what is on the gate...

Sorry KC... NO SNOW FOR YOU....

[Chris the Weather Man]

Wonderful Post, wxguy25! (Just wondering, why did you changed your name?)

Changed my ISP

This Winter just might be a 2002-2003 combo?

I think this winter may end up like the winter of 1968-69 if the East pacific signal remains the same. Graphics to follow later tonight.

1968-1969..... That had one big snowstorm, I remember reading, that it was called the 100 hour snowstorm....

[wxguy25]

Yeah, actually there were two, Chris. The Lindsay Storm (FEB 8-10 1969) and another event which I think your referring to--the long duration event in the Gulf of Maine (FEB 22-28 1969).

Inland areas and New England had a great winter, but from PHL southward it was a waste.

1968-69 was a Very odd El Nino winter, since the Aleutian low was practically nonexistent; there was little evidence of an eastward extension of the subtropical ridge, and we had a persistent RNA pattern. The –NAO saved the winter. It looked more Like a La Nina winter w/ the retraction of the ridge, deep convection and heating which reduced the horizontal temperature gradient, and helped to retard the development of the Aleutian low.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, I forgot about the other snowstorm, the Lindsay storm, dumped over 21 inches of snow near the NYC area... I look forward to reading more of your post, and by the way, will the graphics be up soon?