Ingredients for Winter 2004-05 Continue to Fall into Place

[wxguy25]

they will be out tomorrow. I don't have time tonight.

See the graphics in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=50771

which basically outlines my view of the pattern evolution over the next month to month and a half.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Ok, Thank You, and I look forward to seeing them tomorrow...

[thstorm87]

well I hope this winter isnt a screw zone for philly south and west again, if it is then your call for the winter will be wrong for this area.

[wxguy25]

well I hope this winter isnt a screw zone for philly south and west again, if it is then your call for the winter will be wrong for this area.

yeah, thanks for reminding me.

[Chris the Weather Man]

Heh.... Can't wait until December to get things rolling here...........

[KWT]

glad to see things are going well over there.

over in the U.K I'm glad to report that this winter is looking decent,and may if things fall into place be ONE of the best since the early 80's,although we aren't expecting another 63.

(1963 was lengendary,many places saw drifts of 5 meters,temps never reached above 2c for 2 whole months,which nowdays it's hard for that to happen for a few days.)

anyway we are gearing up for the first northerly of the year,which is looking quite cold,infact cold enough for snow although there doesn't look to be much precip around then.

and best of all is the chance of a scandi high forming,which if it were to happen could well give some very cold temps...

[P.K.]

I remain hopeful. (As I do every year)

How much will it take to make us ground to a halt this year, 10cm?

[KWT]

oh I suspect 2 inches would do the job as it always does in London,although when a event like Jan 28th happens it's not that suprising.

(in the first 10 mins of the Blizzard I got 2 inches,as well as winds of 35Mph it was quite severe,it turned out it was a squall line,and coined the phrase thundersnow in the U.K.)

[P.K.]

That was a great day When I asked my parents though they said it didn't snow at home which was a bit strange given that I'm not that much further south. (They probably just didn't notiice it though as there is snow cover there on this image http://homepage.ntlworld.com/mtullett/29-jan-2004.jpg/:lol: )

Lightning and snow at the same time

[wxguy25]

That was a great day When I asked my parents though they said it didn't snow at home which was a bit strange given that I'm not that much further south. (They probably just didn't notiice it though as there is snow cover there on this image http://homepage.ntlworld.com/mtullett/29-jan-2004.jpg/:lol: )

Lightning and snow at the same time

Ah thundersnow, yes it is VERY exciting. Probably the result of Conditional Instability or CSI (if the precip was banded)

[Stormsfury]

Ah yes, thundersnow is by far, one of the most exciting weather phenomena to experience firsthand ... and even better when it occurs in Charleston, SC ... since snowfall itself, is quite rare anyways...

[donsutherland1]

Thanks, Wxguy25 for the kind words. The snowcover developments are very exciting. The greater intensity of the Siberian high that you describe could make for some very cold days this coming winter.

As for 1999-00 and 2001-02, I was speaking strictly from the snowcover standpoint. As you noted, those were La Niña winters, among other things, and I strongly agree that those winters are not in the running for Winter 2004-05.

Overall, outstanding discussion.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I wonder if this winter has the potential to be just as cold as last winter with Subzero Temps and all? For a Winter fan, I hope so.... Just like last January... Although, Larry Cosgrove mentioned that this winter could have a combo of 1976/1977 and 1993/1994, and those winters were extremely cold... I remember reading or feeling the cold in Jan '94 with the temps as high of 7F at Noon.......

[yoda]

I wonder if this winter has the potential to be just as cold as last winter with Subzero Temps and all? For a Winter fan, I hope so....

Where? In your area? The last time NYC saw below 0 temps was a while ago, don't know exactly.

[Chris the Weather Man]

I wonder if this winter has the potential to be just as cold as last winter with Subzero Temps and all? For a Winter fan, I hope so....

Where? In your area? The last time NYC saw below 0 temps was a while ago, don't know exactly.

Well, I am located west of the city about 25 miles....... Last JAN I saw a temp of -5F on my weather station...

With the Wind Chill nearly -30F

[wxguy25]

I wonder if this winter has the potential to be just as cold as last winter with Subzero Temps and all? For a Winter fan, I hope so....

Where? In your area? The last time NYC saw below 0 temps was a while ago, don't know exactly.

Its possible given the right set-up but you would need a significant snowpack

[Chris the Weather Man]

Yes, I remember seeing that temp of -5F right after we got 7 inches of snow....

[yoda]

Ah ok.. thanks.

[Chris the Weather Man]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

[yoda]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

I think so... but would it be only likely in the Upper Midwest where temperatures can fall sig w/ radational cooling, the decoupling of winds, and a strong artic high from Canada?