Typhoon Kujira is slowly weakening

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Apr 11, 2003 3:29 pm

http://www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0203.gif

It will be a typhoon as it pass south of Guam but how much south is the question because any deviation more to the north will represent more effects from it in that island that last year was affected by 2 typhoons.But down the road it may be a supertyphoon threatening the Phillipines.

ColdFront77 · #2 Postby **ColdFront77** » Fri Apr 11, 2003 6:46 pm

Only about 50 miles south of Guam in the latest forecast track, pretty close. We'll be monitoring this one.

mf_dolphin · #3 Postby **mf_dolphin** » Fri Apr 11, 2003 7:08 pm

Guam sure did hit bad last year. This could be the start of aother bad one for them as well. It wouldn't take much of a deviation to the north to really smack them good.

Anonymous · #4 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Apr 11, 2003 7:13 pm

It will defintiely be close. But I am confident that the center will pass south of the island. You can't see Guam on the map, but I did update the forecast graphic in the other thread. We should be more concerned about the Philippines. Kujira could be a strong typhoon by then.

#5 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 6:25 am

Yep TWW down the road it may be more than it is now and more of a threat but let's deal first with Guam and later the Phillippines.

#6 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 8:47 am

A Typhoon watch for Guam:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/showsigwx.php?w ... HOON+WATCH

Any move a little bit north of the projected track will bring more strong winds and rain to Guam.

#7 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 1:48 pm

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/pr/guam/wmic.jpg

It is organizing rapidly and when it passes south of Guam it will be a pretty strong typhoon but for Guam any movement a little bit to the north will send more strong wonds and heavy rains to Guam but I hope that it passes around 100 miles south of Guam as the track forecast shows.

Kevin_Wx · #8 Postby **Kevin_Wx** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 2:19 pm

Like I said when the system was in it's early stages--at least 95-110 knots of maximum intensity, probably higher now.

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 5:02 pm

Really it is very strong now and as time goes by it will be more stronger but Guam still has to watch it just in case it deviates a little but I think now that it will pass south of that island but not by much distance.

ColdFront77 · #10 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 5:04 pm

I agree Luis, a close call, this many miles south of the island of Guam; I assume would give the island of Guam some large surf to the south.

#11 Postby **Aslkahuna** » Sat Apr 12, 2003 7:25 pm

gets poleward of 15N before passing west of 130E the chances of it reaching the Philippines will be greatly reduced. The vast majority of typhoons that hit the Philippines in April (which aren't many) usually cross the Islands in the Visayas (Central Philippines) below the latitude of Manila (around 14N) very rarely do they hit Luzon from Manila's latitude northward. Additionally, storms that do cross the Philippines in April seldom survive passage across the SCS because the shear and thermodynamic conditions there are still quite hostile for the maintenance of Tropical Cyclones. Usually it's not until May or June when the SW Monsoon starts to develop that the SCS becomes a favorable place for TC's.

Steve

#12 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Apr 13, 2003 9:41 am

Let's see in what latitud is is when it reaches 130E but it will be a very strong typhoon when it gets close to the Philliphines.

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 6:23 am

Kujira continues to intensifie and now it is a cat 3 system with 115 mph maximum winds with higher gusts as it passes south of Guam.

Looking down the road the Philliphines are in the path of it but it all depends on the high pressure to the north if it is strong or not to then deviate kujira away from Luzon but still it is far from there to be sure if it will affect them or not but it looks like we will see this system intensifie to supertyphoon status as conditions are favorable to continue to intensifie.

chadtm80 · #14 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 8:21 am

Realy is a pretty storm

isobar · #15 Postby **isobar** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 8:58 am

Nice pic chad!

chadtm80 · #16 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 9:07 am

HURRICANE STATEMENT
GUZ001-002-PMZ151-152-171-141700-

TYPHOON KUJIRA LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
9 PM GUAM LST MON APR 14 2003

...TYPHOON KUJIRA MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AND INTENSIFYING...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
GUAM...ROTA AND ULITHI.

...WATCHES AND WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI AS OF 8 PM.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TYPHOON WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR GUAM. A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ROTA AND ULITHI.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM GUAM LST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON KUJIRA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 145.7
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...
235 MILES SOUTH OF ROTA AND 420 MILES EAST OF ULITHI. TYPHOON
KUJIRA IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 115 MPH.

...GUAM...

THE ISLAND OF GUAM REMAINS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS THREE.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY GUAM CIVIL DEFENSE.

AT NOON GUAM LST THE DEPARTMENT OF EDUCATION OPENED THE FOLLOWING
SITES TO SERVE AS EMERGENCY TYPHOON SHELTERS:
MACHANAO ELEMENTARY...YIGO
F.B. LEON GUERRERO...YIGO
GEORGE WASHINGTON HIGH SCHOOL...MANGILAO
TAMUNING ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...TAMUNING
M.U. LUJAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...YONA
INARAJAN ELEMENTARY SCHOOL...INARAJAN

...WIND INFORMATION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF KUJIRA ABOUT 175
MILES SOUTH OF GUAM LATE TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 35 TO 45 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY. A NORTHWARD DEVIATION IN
THE STORM'S TRACK WOULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT ON NORTHERN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH SOUTHERN EXPOSURES AND 10 TO 14 FT ON TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS
SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...ROTA...

ROTA REMAINS IN TYPHOON CONDITION OF READINESS FOUR. FOLLOW
INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY CNMI EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF KUJIRA ABOUT 220
MILES SOUTH OF ROTA TONIGHT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY. A NORTHWARD DEVIATION
IN THE STORM'S TRACK WOULD BRING MUCH STRONGER WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET TONIGHT ON NORTHERN CLOCKWISE
THROUGH SOUTHERN EXPOSURES AND 9 TO 13 FT ON TUESDAY. HAZARDOUS
SURF WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

...ULITHI...

...PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
RESIDENTS OF ULITHI SHOULD CLOSELY FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF KUJIRA
AND MONITOR WEATHER BULLETINS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS ISSUED BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.

...WIND INFORMATION...
THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER OF KUJIRA ABOUT 160
MILES NORTH OF ULITHI TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD MEAN SUSTAINED
WINDS UP TO 40 MILES PER HOUR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...A
SLIGHT SOUTHWARD DEVIATION IN THE STORM'S TRACK WOULD BRING MUCH
STRONGER WINDS.

...STORM SURGE AND SURF INFORMATION...
SURF IS EXPECTED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES
WITH HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FEET EARLY TUESDAY. SURF WILL BUILD TO
HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 12 FEET DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. AS KUJIRA PASSES
NORTH OF ULITHI TUESDAY EVENING...HAZARDOUS SURF WITH HEIGHTS OF
8 TO 12 FEET WILL AFFECT THE NORTHWESTERN CLOCKWISE THROUGH EASTERN
EXPOSURES.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE ON ULITHI TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 3 AM TUESDAY GUAM LST. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR UPDATED OFFICIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BULLETINS. ON GUAM AND ROTA...NOAA WEATHER
RADIO IS BROADCAST ON 162.40 MHZ AND IS AVAILABLE ON GUAM BY DIALING
811 ON YOUR TELEPHONE.

$$

WARD

chadtm80 · #17 Postby **chadtm80** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 9:10 am

Most Recent Positions Regardless of Basin (if available):
DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/0832 UTC 10.6N 145.6E T5.5/5.5 KUJIRA -- West Pacific Ocean
14/0822 UTC 16.8S 175.9W T2.0/2.0 90P -- South Pacific Ocean
14/0232 UTC 10.6N 146.5E T5.0/5.0 KUJIRA -- West Pacific Ocean
14/0126 UTC 15.2S 176.2W T1.5/1.5 90P -- South Pacific Ocean
13/2032 UTC 10.4N 147.9E T4.5/4.5 KUJIRA -- West Pacific Ocean

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 9:15 am

Chad all this information about this typhoon is found in storm2k and not in other boards as I haved looked around and outside of storm2k there is little to no information about this typhoon and it is the proof that in terms of tropical information the place to find it is here.I can't imagine when the hurricane season starts all the information that will be comming here from the experts.

Stormless2003 · #19 Postby **Stormless2003** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 3:21 pm

Typhoon Kujira is looking VERY impressive this afternoon as it passes to the south of Guam!

Look at that eye! I wouldn't be surprised if this storm is already bordering on super typhoon strength! It's a good thing Guam got missed by this one!

Stormless2003 · #20 Postby **Stormless2003** » Mon Apr 14, 2003 3:53 pm

For some reason the Guam nexrad is experiencing technical difficulties, and is generating some very strange images.

http://weather.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p20-r/si.pgua.shtml

I've never seen a radar screen go wild like that before! Wonder what's causing it?

Typhoon Kujira is slowly weakening

Typhoon Kujira is slowly weakening

If Kujira

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