My take on the rest of the season=No more named systems

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:19 pm

I know that this is a bold statement but it is my thinking that things are too hostil in the Atlantic,GOM and Caribbean to have some more tropical or subtropical formations.A weak el nino is in place in the pacific and it has capped the atlantic basin from any tropical developments.But it has been a very interesting that had 14 named systems 8 hurricanes and the most inpressive number 6 major canes.But on the other hand a painful one for many people including me (TS Jeanne) as many landfalls occured especially in the sunshine state.It has been a pleasure to colaborate in this forum helping the members especially many newbies when questions were posted during the active part of this season.Despite some down times at storm2k during the most active period due to the server problems I think that we did very well posting all the information to the members.Dont think that I will be absent from this forum despite it is over for developments this last month of the season because I will be here posting in this forum information about what is going on with ENSO etc.And in a few weeks my first take for the 2005 season will be posted.

#2 Postby **MGC** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:30 pm

I think it is a saft bet. I give only a 25% chance of another named system...mGC

https://www.youtube.com/user/senorpepr · #3 Postby **senorpepr** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:35 pm

I will have to agree with you. It may be possible to see another subtropical system out in the Atlantic, but that chances are fairly low. As for the rest of the basin, I don't expect much of anything to develop.

However, I will say that although the northern hemisphere is calming down, the southern hemisphere is picking up. For those of you you haven't checked out the tropics in the other basins, I suggest starting. Last winter was my first season monitoring other basins and I can honestly say that it helps fill that winter tropical void. Plus it's interesting to see how tropical cyclones far away can affect us here in North America and Europe. Prices of spices and fruits climb from foreign disasters. Trust me, following other basins can broaden your horizons.

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:38 pm

senorpepr wrote:I will have to agree with you. It may be possible to see another subtropical system out in the Atlantic, but that chances are fairly low. As for the rest of the basin, I don't expect much of anything to develop.

However, I will say that although the northern hemisphere is calming down, the southern hemisphere is picking up. For those of you you haven't checked out the tropics in the other basins, I suggest starting. Last winter was my first season monitoring other basins and I can honestly say that it helps fill that winter tropical void. Plus it's interesting to see how tropical cyclones far away can affect us here in North America and Europe. Prices of spices and fruits climb from foreign disasters. Trust me, following other basins can broaden your horizons.

Yes it is time to look at the other basins.And let's not forget that something surprising can happen somewhere in the world outside the north atlantic basin like what happened in march 2004 with Catherina in Brazil.

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:39 pm

I think there's a better than 50/50 shot of another tropical storm/hurricane, probably forming in the Caribbean over the next 2 weeks.

Scorpion · #6 Postby **Scorpion** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 8:43 pm

Nooo!!!!

cyclonaut · #7 Postby **cyclonaut** » Mon Oct 25, 2004 9:39 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think there's a better than 50/50 shot of another tropical storm/hurricane, probably forming in the Caribbean over the next 2 weeks.

I agree!

What we may be seeing now in the form of hostility in the atmosphere does not mean that will remain the case non stop for the next 5 weeks..I say there is at least a 80% chance of seeing another NS somewhere in the ATL basin before seasons end & like wxman57 aluded to a 50/50 chance of a Caribbean development.

CharleySurvivor · #8 Postby **CharleySurvivor** » Tue Oct 26, 2004 6:07 am

Woohoo!! I sure hope it's over for this year, keeping my fingers cross

Stormsfury · #9 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:51 am

I've been talking about this since last month ...

There's something to be said when there's been NO MDR development in the Central or Western Caribbean the entire season ... the past several years, we've seen earlier development in that region ... which tends or lends credence that the area becomes a hot spot later in the season ... but the ATL/PAC has taken on a very El Niño like look to things, and I don't expect things to act up for the rest of the season ... especially w/out a clear-cut -NAO until we're in November ... and by no means, is it going to be a classical -NAO signal ... more like a Scandiavian Block and SOME modest ridging over Iceland ...

SF

Stormsfury · #10 Postby **Stormsfury** » Tue Oct 26, 2004 10:54 am

To add upon this, is the fact that the Western ATL has been dominated by several cold core cutoff lows which have become completely occluded and a couple of them just missed becoming subtropical ... The general pattern has been either too hostile in the W Caribbean, and/or favorable w/too much in the way of subsidence ...

A bit of a pattern change in the cards towards next week ... potential indian summer alert in the East, with POTENTIAL SVR WX Sunday/Monday across the OV and Deep South ...

SF

#11 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 6:34 am

Yep SF agree 100% with all of your analisis it's all over for 2004.

TS Zack · #12 Postby **TS Zack** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 6:57 am

I say its over! Like Luis said the Caribbean and Atlantic is being controlled by Cold Core Lows that are not allowing for favorable conditions and bringing in very dry air. We may have another storm but I think it will most definitely be a Subtropical Storm forming along one of these frontal boundaries.

All in All no more US threats looks very unlikely and another storm looks unlikely.

therock1811 · #13 Postby **therock1811** » Wed Oct 27, 2004 11:29 am

As I said in another post hopefully we can say so long to Hurricane Season 2004.

#14 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 6:23 pm

Well even with this low pressure trough in the atlantic and caribbean I stand with the same position that I posted at the first post in this thread over 2 weeks ago no more named systems in 2004.

Website · #15 Postby **Brent** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:16 pm

It's over.

Rainband · #16 Postby **Rainband** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:20 pm

Yep the Fat Lady is Singing

#17 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Nov 08, 2004 8:21 pm

Rainband wrote:Yep the Fat Lady is Singing

She is really singing very loudly.

#18 Postby **cycloneye** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:31 am

91 and 92 will not develop into anything so the fat lady is singing loud and clear.

The Big Dog · #19 Postby **The Big Dog** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 8:57 am

cycloneye wrote:91 and 92 will not develop into anything so the fat lady is singing loud and clear.

But it was close. Looks like a STS was in the works:

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
12/1145 UTC 32.0N 36.9W TOO WEAK 92
12/0545 UTC 31.5N 35.6W TOO WEAK 92
11/2315 UTC 30.5N 33.9W ST1.5/1.5 92
10/2345 UTC 14.3N 68.9W TOO WEAK 91
10/1745 UTC 14.3N 69.6W TOO WEAK 91L
09/1745 UTC 13.0N 72.6W TOO WEAK 91L

BTW, Crow is served to everyone who called for a Cat 3/4 in the Carribean. Come and get it! You know who you are. :-)

#20 Postby **george_r_1961** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 1:58 pm

The Atlantic Basin is shut down. Conditions are unfavorable across the entire basin and it being mid November I dont see much chance for improvement.

My take on the rest of the season=No more named systems

My take on the rest of the season=No more named systems

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