AFD NWS San Juan=Very bad weather thru thursday for PR

[cycloneye]

puerto rico and u. s. virgin islands forecast discussion
national weather service san juan pr
600 am ast tue nov 9 2004

. discussion ... impressive ... mid to upper level trough located over
the southwest north atlantic early this morning ... continues moving
slowly east and closer to the local area. this trough is expected to
continue moving slowly east through thursday or thursday night ... but
with the axis remaining just to our west ... before weakening slightly
and lifting northeast friday and saturday. at low levels ... still
have well defined trough extending from central america northeast
across the central caribbean and then continuing northeast into
hispaniola. at the same time ... a surface low has formed along or
just east of this trough over the south central caribbean. this
trough will move slowly east northeast through thursday ... with the
surface low forecasted by the gfs to move slowly northeast and then
east northeast ... passing well south of hispaniola sometime
wednesday ... but then taking from wednesday night through friday
night to get from the mona passage to st croix!

although not etched in stone ... fine details are becoming clearer
with each model run ... and it appears even more likely that the
combination of this mid to upper level trough and increasing
favorable dynamics and instability ... developing and deepening
surface low (possibly with some tropical characteristics)... good
850 - 700 theta e advection and resultant theta e ridge/bullseye
aligning over or just plain moving over fa ... and local effects...
should result in a very active next few days locally ... with weather
worsening late today or early tonight ... but especially nasty from
late tonight or wednesday through thursday. expect showers and
thunderstorms each day ... with periods of heavy rainfall and
increasing potential for flash and river flooding. have continued
flash flood watch and expanded to include all of puerto rico...
culebra and vieques and all of the u. s. virgin islands.

&&

. marine ... aside from developing convection ... fairly quiet conditions
expected across the coastal waters through tonight. thereafter...
expect deteriorating conditions ... with increasing wind field across
much of the local waters. also ... big news will be developing and
then building north northwest and then north swells across the
atlantic waters and caribbean passages ... beginning late wednesday
night or early thursday ... then building significantly thursday and
friday. small craft and high surf advisories will eventually become
necessary ... and will probably need a coastal flood watch as well.

And this bad weather related to the low pressure trough will expand eastward to include the Virgin Islands and the northern Leewards so msbee in St Marteen be prepared for the wet days ahead.

[cycloneye]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... tjua.shtml

Here are the radar loops short and long range of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands and all here can follow this rain event as it unfolds.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
7:50 AM AST TUE NOV 9 2004

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXPANDED THE FLOOD
WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...TO
INCLUDE ALL OF PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...ST THOMAS...ST
JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS...AND ST CROIX...

...THE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR
CULEBRA AND VIEQUES...ST THOMAS...ST JOHN AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
AND ST CROIX HAS EXPIRED...

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE
ATMOSPHERIC FEATURES AND LOCAL EFFECTS...WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS BEGINNING LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT AND THEN CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THIS
DEVELOPING SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A FAVORABLE ONE FOR
PRODUCING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...THAT COULD LINGER OVER
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FOR AT LEAST A DAY OR TWO. THIS HEAVY RAINFALL MAY
RESULT IN FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING ACROSS ALL OR PARTS OF PUERTO
RICO...CULEBRA AND VIEQUES AND ALL OF THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH NOT YET CERTAIN...INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE GREATEST RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LATE TONIGHT OR WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. IN ADDITION...
MUDSLIDES MAY DEVELOP OVER AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.

A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR THE WATCH AREA...BUT IS NOT IMMINENT. IF YOU ARE
IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK YOUR PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...
ESPECIALLY IF YOU HAVE INTERESTS ALONG RIVERS. KEEP INFORMED...AND
BE READY FOR ACTION IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING IS ISSUED.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL TV OR RADIO FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS WEATHER SITUATION.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.