5:30 PM EST TWO=Better organized,Possible tropical or sub

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cycloneye
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5:30 PM EST TWO=Better organized,Possible tropical or sub

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:06 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 092159
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EST TUE NOV 9 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME A LITTLE
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER
SLOW DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE COULD
DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY...IF NECESSARY.
EVEN IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE DOES NOT DEVELOP...THE SYSTEM SHOULD
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...CAUSING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH...
UNDER AWIPS HEADER HSFAT2 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT02 KNHC.

ELSEWHERE..TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
Last edited by cycloneye on Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Scorpion

#2 Postby Scorpion » Tue Nov 09, 2004 5:15 pm

:D
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WXBUFFJIM
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#3 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Tue Nov 09, 2004 6:07 pm

Well as we seen in the past in the Caribbean it doesn't have to even be a depression or a named storm to produce significant life threatening rainfall induced flooding. We saw what happened in Haiti from just a slow moving tropical disturbance.

Jim
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wxman57
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#4 Postby wxman57 » Tue Nov 09, 2004 7:04 pm

I can't see any signs of an LLC forming in any of the Caribbean Sea ship or land observations. Looks like just an area of thunderstorms along the front, with a slightly lower pressure. Doesn't look tropical at all. Probably just a weak low and LOTS of heavy rain for PR and the Virgin Islands next 24-48 hrs.
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#5 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 09, 2004 7:33 pm

Definitely appears like earlier this morning that an MCV had taken shape due to some drier air undercutting the trough along with divergence aloft which enhanced some convergence at the SFC ... the overall large scale scheme is still showing a very frontal like nature in the Caribbean ...

JB also jumped off the bandwagon in his free column today, FWIW ...

SF
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