GFDL: 105 mph Hurricane Otto in islands...

Anonymous · #1 Postby **Anonymous** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 10:51 pm

I know... I can hear some already: LOL, THE GFDL!!!!

I understand. Zack and I laughed when the GFDL took Charley to 140 mph in SW FL. We laughed when the GFDL took that Tropical Storm named Ivan to 160 mph south of Hispanola.

Watch this. Waters are warm, the system has a good amount of moisture with it...Shear is 5-15 kt and decreasing somewhat.
In all...SO-SO conditions.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... hour=084hr

#2 Postby **dixiebreeze** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 10:53 pm

LOL -- I'm watching, FB. November tropical storms are not unknown.

Sanibel · #3 Postby **Sanibel** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:01 pm

Can't believe it. Looks like a late-blooming-Lenny...

The Big Dog · #4 Postby **The Big Dog** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:06 pm

<yawn>

Ok... the 18Z run closes the circulation by 7pm tonight. It's now 11, so unless it's closed as I write this...

And, uh, oh yeah, it's going to be a hurricane by 7am -- 8 hours from now -- according to the GFDL.

It's gonna be a Cat 2 in 48 hours, but then weaken 25 knots in the 6 hours after that. Ok.

I'll believe it when I see it.

The Big Dog · #5 Postby **The Big Dog** » Tue Nov 09, 2004 11:29 pm

And the 18Z SHIPS model says 39 knots. At least one of those models is gonna look pretty stupid when all this is done.

Stormsfury · #6 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:46 am

it's a TOTALLY different scenario when using the GFDL with an already established system vs. one that doesn't exist ...

~Floydbuster wrote:I know... I can hear some already: LOL, THE GFDL!!!!

I understand. Zack and I laughed when the GFDL took Charley to 140 mph in SW FL. We laughed when the GFDL took that Tropical Storm named Ivan to 160 mph south of Hispanola.

Watch this. Waters are warm, the system has a good amount of moisture with it...Shear is 5-15 kt and decreasing somewhat.
In all...SO-SO conditions.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... hour=084hr

9:48 · #7 Postby **9:48** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:46 pm

We also laughed when the GFDL took Cat 2 Matthew into New Orleans.

Steve H. · #8 Postby **Steve H.** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:59 pm

Funny how the last run has it cut off from the trough and heading west at 14.xN/70.x W :roll:

#9 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Nov 11, 2004 7:50 am

Again more disinformation.Where is Otto Floydbuster?? Eat much crow as you can

.

The Big Dog · #10 Postby **The Big Dog** » Thu Nov 11, 2004 9:55 am

cycloneye wrote:Eat much crow as you can .

Along with a nice warm cup of "shut the ..." :lol:

michaelwmoss · #11 Postby **michaelwmoss** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 4:43 am

I think I know the next forecast:

Mid-Season Blizzard across Central Indiana to become SubTropical Storm Walter in Eastern Indiana within 12 hrs

Anonymous · #12 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 5:15 am

LOL..Michael...I have heard you say the name Walter a million times this season...LOL!

#13 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 6:02 am

Most of the times, GFDL exaggerates. I will classify the GFDL as "the dream each hurricane has." Since most of the tropical cyclones intensity are greatly enhanced by this computer model.

#14 Postby **wxman57** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 7:10 am

Nothing there on the 00Z run.

Stormsfury · #15 Postby **Stormsfury** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 11:50 am

The Big Dog wrote:And the 18Z SHIPS model says 39 knots. At least one of those models is gonna look pretty stupid when all this is done.

Or all of them ...

#16 Postby **sponger** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 2:35 pm

I would take it easy on Floyd Buster, just telling what the model shows.

cyclonaut · #17 Postby **cyclonaut** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 9:31 pm

sponger wrote:I would take it easy on Floyd Buster, just telling what the model shows.

I agree!

& this thread was started Nov 9th so ripping him a new one today over something the model indicated 3 days ago isnt just.

Anonymous · #18 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Nov 12, 2004 10:23 pm

The Big Dog · #19 Postby **The Big Dog** » Sat Nov 13, 2004 12:18 am

cyclonaut wrote:
sponger wrote:I would take it easy on Floyd Buster, just telling what the model shows.

I agree!

& this thread was started Nov 9th so ripping him a new one today over something the model indicated 3 days ago isnt just.

Well, I think that there is a certain level of responsibility you take on when you try to interpret these models. This information hasn't been readily available to the general public for very long, but now that it is, anyone is free to read it and make their predictions and post them to bulletin boards like this one, leaving behind some very confusing and possibly frightening information for people who might not know any better. No professional met would have predicted a Cat 4 hurricane from a blob of clouds and one model. Does being amateurs entitle us to a greater margin of error in both our forecasts and responsibility? I don't think so.

I analyze data and conduct research for a living, though not in the weather field. I can tell you all about how people overanalyze data and read meaning that just isn't there. And then someone has to go clean up the mess. There's a very fine difference between using and abusing data.

Stormsfury · #20 Postby **Stormsfury** » Sat Nov 13, 2004 2:33 pm

cyclonaut wrote:
sponger wrote:I would take it easy on Floyd Buster, just telling what the model shows.

I agree!

& this thread was started Nov 9th so ripping him a new one today over something the model indicated 3 days ago isnt just.

Over 7 days ago, I also brought up counterpoint regarding a frontal structure and NOT of a tropical origin and moreof the convection/waves of LP due to baroclinic effects ...

GFDL: 105 mph Hurricane Otto in islands...

GFDL: 105 mph Hurricane Otto in islands...

Re: GFDL: 105 mph Hurricane Otto in islands...

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