Development Potential area might have to be shifted...

Hyperstorm · #1 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 8:10 am

One of the SEVERAL low pressure systems that are riding this trough is currently located just north of PANAMA. I believe this is the area that has the best potential (IF ANY). Looks to be rotating and moving in an East or East-Northeasterly fashion. It also looks to be located over the warmest water of the basin, and the most favorable. There is also ample TROPICAL moisture to work with and it has become slightly better organized this morning.

Just look on the lower left portion of the picture behind the NOAA logo and you'll see this interesting feature...

BTW, check out the cold-core Low Pressure center located near 30* N, 30* W. Interesting...

#2 Postby **george_r_1961** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 8:20 am

As impressive as it looks im getting the feeling this is still for the most part baroclinically driven. However Novemeber tropical development in this region isnt all that unusual and we will need to see if this system acquires tropical features.

#3 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:00 am

I was just thinking the same thing about the storms north of Panama. Certainly no development in the NE Caribbean. Lots and lots of shear, no concentration of squalls. Frontal boundary is very weak near Panama, though, and there is evidence of a small upper-level high building over the cluster of storms down there.

Rainband · #4 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 9:03 am

i saw that last night. It had a spin but I figured it was too close to land. :wink:

#5 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:05 am

You might take a look at this image I just snapped in GARP. Definitely looks like an LLC developing. Reports along the coast of Colombia are all from the southwest. Had a ship a few hours ago with a 25kt NE wind (which I drew in on this image) on the north side of the convection. Appears to be a pretty good upper level anticyclone right on top of this thing. Could well develop into a mini storm. This is well detached from the front and appears to be purely tropical.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/disturb.gif">

The Big Dog · #6 Postby **The Big Dog** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:15 am

Hmm... appears to be some rotation and even outflow. Looks like it's gonna skirt the north coast of Colombia, however, so it might be just a temporary thing.

Stormsfury · #7 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 11:56 am

This little mini-system has some chance of further organizing ... IMHO, this one also appeared to be a very well organized MCV, and the last couple of frames appear that a tail from the NE to the S is beginning to bow out somewhat ...

FWIW, model guidance picked up on several developing frontal lobes with this region as the trough extended well down into the region ... an out ahead of the boundary MCV can make things just a bit interesting.

SF

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 12:32 pm

Wouldnt this have a better chance since its further south of missing the trough and getting pushed west by the High that will be building in behind it? Or would it move NE out to sea as well?

Sanibel · #9 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 2:44 pm

The tail-end of the front usually becomes the center.

Believe it or not, there's two systems out there. Unfortunately, they are both moving too fast...

#10 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:38 pm

Jekyhe32210 wrote:Wouldnt this have a better chance since its further south of missing the trough and getting pushed west by the High that will be building in behind it? Or would it move NE out to sea as well?

It's definitely not going west. Moving at a fair clip to the ENE now. Weakening, too. Thunderstorms aren't nearly as concentrated as they were 3-4 hours ago. Persistence is the key...

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:43 pm

THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING! I kept mentioning the SW Caribbean and then off to the North or northeast. People kept telling me it was going into the East Pac.

Rainband · #12 Postby **Rainband** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:45 pm

it isn't looking too hot

#13 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 3:49 pm

Warming cloud tops now.As Chris (wxman57) says persistance is the key but right now nothing will develop from that.

Stormsfury · #14 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 5:44 pm

~Floydbuster wrote:THIS IS WHAT I HAVE BEEN SAYING! I kept mentioning the SW Caribbean and then off to the North or northeast. People kept telling me it was going into the East Pac.

The people were talking about previous tropical waves several days ago ... this is still trying, but still very much a baroclinicly enhanced entity ... in fact, the cloud bandings are now getting embedded within a jet streak along the associated trough ... undercutting dry air entrainment aided in the convective blowup (and MCV development) but as evidenced from the bow segment on IR imagery, the system has thusly weakened significantly this afternoon ....

If anything, right now, there appears to a broad scale low pressure developing in the Central Caribbean (91L) but it also could be that the new thunderstorm complex firing up is making a right turn (swinging from NE to E) along the RFQ out ahead of the broad scale trough ...

SF

Sanibel · #15 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Nov 10, 2004 6:26 pm

See if the one to the left incorporates into the one with the convection and re-flares. This all depends on the strength of the front...

Development Potential area might have to be shifted...

Development Potential area might have to be shifted...

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