NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+24 : 14.0N 69.1W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.11.2004 14.0N 69.1W WEAK
00UTC 11.11.2004 14.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2004 15.5N 66.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2004 18.9N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2004 17.5N 64.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2004 17.1N 62.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.11.2004 17.2N 63.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2004 18.6N 61.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.11.2004 20.2N 60.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2004 22.0N 58.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2004 22.1N 58.3W
Model runs thread from Global and Tropical Models for 91L
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cycloneye
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Model runs thread from Global and Tropical Models for 91L
Last edited by cycloneye on Wed Nov 10, 2004 5:21 pm, edited 8 times in total.
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cycloneye
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18:00 UTC model guidance
Code: Select all
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041109 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041109 1800 041110 0600 041110 1800 041111 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.6N 72.3W 15.8N 70.0W 17.9N 67.5W 19.9N 65.5W
BAMM 13.6N 72.3W 14.9N 71.0W 16.1N 69.2W 16.5N 67.2W
A98E 13.6N 72.3W 14.3N 71.4W 14.7N 70.9W 14.4N 70.5W
LBAR 13.6N 72.3W 15.1N 70.6W 16.6N 68.6W 17.5N 67.1W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 38KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 36KTS 38KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041111 1800 041112 1800 041113 1800 041114 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.9N 63.6W 26.8N 59.6W 31.4N 53.9W 34.0N 46.6W
BAMM 17.2N 65.4W 19.4N 61.5W 22.6N 58.2W 27.2N 55.2W
A98E 13.7N 69.8W 13.6N 68.4W 14.3N 67.5W 14.5N 66.8W
LBAR 18.0N 65.7W 19.5N 63.0W 21.5N 60.1W 24.2N 56.4W
SHIP 39KTS 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS
DSHP 39KTS 33KTS 22KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.6N LONCUR = 72.3W DIRCUR = 60DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.9N LONM12 = 73.5W DIRM12 = 65DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 75.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
The BAMD model tracks it over my head.
Let's try to post about the models in this thread to not have many threads about them.
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cycloneye
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http://weather.net-waves.com/modelplot.htm
The above link is the grafic for the 18:00 Model guidance.Go to menu and select 91L.
The above link is the grafic for the 18:00 Model guidance.Go to menu and select 91L.
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cycloneye
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http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/avntc2.c ... =Animation
The above link has the 12z GFS run for 91L.It shows the low passing just south of Puerto Rico.
The above link has the 12z GFS run for 91L.It shows the low passing just south of Puerto Rico.
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cycloneye
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12z Nogaps
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/nogapstc ... =Animation
This 12z Nogaps run shows this low pressure getting real strong after it crosses the NE caribbean islands.But the question is if this will be a gale center or a baroclinic low embedded in trough when it gets strong north of the islands according to Nogaps.
This 12z Nogaps run shows this low pressure getting real strong after it crosses the NE caribbean islands.But the question is if this will be a gale center or a baroclinic low embedded in trough when it gets strong north of the islands according to Nogaps.
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cycloneye
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18z GFDL run for 91L
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 9
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 13.4 72.3 60./ 7.0
6 14.3 71.9 22./ 9.7
12 14.7 71.5 42./ 6.0
18 14.3 71.0 131./ 6.9
24 14.6 70.5 60./ 5.6
30 14.7 69.8 77./ 7.5
36 15.2 68.9 60./ 9.8
42 15.4 68.3 75./ 5.8
48 15.5 67.9 74./ 4.1
54 15.8 67.3 65./ 5.9
60 16.2 66.9 46./ 6.4
66 16.6 66.1 65./ 7.8
72 17.4 65.3 44./11.6
78 17.9 64.6 57./ 8.5
84 18.6 63.6 55./11.2
90 19.4 62.9 42./10.1
96 20.4 62.0 40./13.8
102 21.4 61.0 47./13.7
108 22.7 60.0 38./15.9
114 24.3 58.9 34./18.7
120 26.0 57.7 35./20.7
126 27.8 56.4 36./20.4
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cycloneye
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00:00 UTC models
Code: Select all
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041110 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041110 0000 041110 1200 041111 0000 041111 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.1N 71.8W 16.3N 68.7W 18.5N 65.6W 20.6N 63.2W
A98E 14.1N 71.8W 14.9N 70.9W 15.4N 70.3W 15.3N 69.4W
LBAR 14.1N 71.8W 15.6N 70.1W 17.0N 68.1W 17.8N 66.3W
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041112 0000 041113 0000 041114 0000 041115 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.2N 61.1W 28.7N 56.3W 33.1N 49.9W 37.4N 44.5W
A98E 14.8N 68.1W 15.6N 65.5W 16.9N 62.8W 18.5N 59.9W
LBAR 18.4N 64.6W 19.8N 60.9W 22.2N 57.3W 25.2N 52.9W
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.1N LONCUR = 71.8W DIRCUR = 55DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 13.2N LONM12 = 73.0W DIRM12 = 59DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 12.6N LONM24 = 74.2W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
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00UTC run of UKMET
NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 19.8N 60.4W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2004 19.8N 60.4W WEAK
00UTC 12.11.2004 19.2N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2004 19.8N 60.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2004 18.7N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2004 18.2N 61.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.11.2004 20.0N 60.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.11.2004 21.5N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2004 23.2N 55.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2004 23.8N 52.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2004 23.1N 50.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
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cycloneye
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12:00 UTC models=Ship no longer develops it
Code: Select all
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041110 1200 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041110 1200 041111 0000 041111 1200 041112 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 69.9W 16.3N 67.1W 18.1N 64.7W 20.4N 62.1W
BAMM 14.5N 69.9W 15.6N 68.1W 16.2N 66.8W 17.3N 65.4W
A98E 14.5N 69.9W 15.2N 68.5W 15.9N 67.6W 16.3N 66.9W
LBAR 14.5N 69.9W 15.5N 68.1W 16.8N 66.4W 18.0N 64.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 27KTS 27KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041112 1200 041113 1200 041114 1200 041115 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 59.1W 28.1N 52.4W 28.3N 44.7W 26.0N 39.1W
BAMM 18.2N 63.9W 20.1N 60.2W 22.7N 57.3W 26.3N 52.9W
A98E 16.8N 65.9W 17.7N 63.5W 19.1N 60.8W 21.3N 57.3W
LBAR 19.1N 62.9W 21.6N 58.8W 24.5N 55.1W 27.2N 50.6W
SHIP 25KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 25KTS 19KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 69.9W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 71.7W DIRM12 = 66DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 73.0W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Ship doesn't have this as a storm anymore.This wont develop into a tropical storm as it has not detached from the frontal trough.
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cycloneye
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12 UTC Ukmet
TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.7N 69.5W
VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.11.2004 14.7N 69.5W WEAK
00UTC 11.11.2004 14.5N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2004 14.4N 67.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.11.2004 13.7N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2004 15.5N 62.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2004 17.3N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2004 19.0N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2004 20.7N 59.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.11.2004 22.1N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2004 22.3N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2004 23.0N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2004 24.5N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2004 27.0N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
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cycloneye
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91L is crawling
Code: Select all
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041110 1800 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041110 1800 041111 0600 041111 1800 041112 0600
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.5N 69.7W 15.9N 66.8W 17.7N 64.0W 20.1N 61.0W
BAMM 14.5N 69.7W 14.9N 67.9W 15.7N 66.3W 16.5N 64.2W
A98E 14.5N 69.7W 14.7N 69.6W 14.9N 69.6W 14.8N 69.8W
LBAR 14.5N 69.7W 15.2N 68.3W 16.3N 66.9W 17.8N 65.4W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 31KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041112 1800 041113 1800 041114 1800 041115 1800
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.0N 57.7W 27.6N 51.8W 29.2N 46.2W 29.1N 40.6W
BAMM 17.7N 61.8W 20.2N 57.0W 23.6N 54.4W 28.4N 51.9W
A98E 14.6N 69.5W 14.7N 68.3W 15.3N 67.6W 15.4N 67.7W
LBAR 19.3N 63.7W 21.7N 59.6W 24.2N 55.7W 26.2N 50.1W
SHIP 31KTS 27KTS 18KTS 0KTS
DSHP 31KTS 27KTS 18KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.5N LONCUR = 69.7W DIRCUR = 70DEG SPDCUR = 3KT
LATM12 = 14.2N LONM12 = 70.8W DIRM12 = 76DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.6N LONM24 = 72.4W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
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cycloneye
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12z GFDL
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 10
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.3 69.9 70./ 8.9
6 14.1 69.9 175./ 2.1
12 14.0 69.6 99./ 3.1
18 13.4 70.0 217./ 7.3
24 13.0 69.7 144./ 5.7
30 12.9 69.2 98./ 4.1
36 13.0 68.2 85./ 9.6
42 13.7 68.5 340./ 7.1
48 14.1 68.1 41./ 6.1
54 15.0 67.8 16./ 8.8
60 14.9 68.1 253./ 2.9
66 14.8 67.8 106./ 2.8
72 15.0 67.7 52./ 2.2
78 15.1 67.4 60./ 3.5
84 15.2 67.4 292./ .5
90 15.2 67.5 270./ .7
96 15.0 68.2 260./ 6.9
102 14.9 68.6 249./ 4.6
108 14.6 68.8 215./ 3.5
114 14.4 69.3 250./ 4.6
120 14.4 69.9 272./ 5.9
126 14.5 70.5 275./ 5.9
This is the same model run that Floybuster posted in another thread but here are the numbers of the plots.
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 91L
INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 10
FORECAST STORM POSITION
HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)
0 14.3 69.9 70./ 8.9
6 14.1 69.9 175./ 2.1
12 14.0 69.6 99./ 3.1
18 13.4 70.0 217./ 7.3
24 13.0 69.7 144./ 5.7
30 12.9 69.2 98./ 4.1
36 13.0 68.2 85./ 9.6
42 13.7 68.5 340./ 7.1
48 14.1 68.1 41./ 6.1
54 15.0 67.8 16./ 8.8
60 14.9 68.1 253./ 2.9
66 14.8 67.8 106./ 2.8
72 15.0 67.7 52./ 2.2
78 15.1 67.4 60./ 3.5
84 15.2 67.4 292./ .5
90 15.2 67.5 270./ .7
96 15.0 68.2 260./ 6.9
102 14.9 68.6 249./ 4.6
108 14.6 68.8 215./ 3.5
114 14.4 69.3 250./ 4.6
120 14.4 69.9 272./ 5.9
126 14.5 70.5 275./ 5.9
This is the same model run that Floybuster posted in another thread but here are the numbers of the plots.
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cycloneye
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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL912004) ON 20041111 0000 UTC
...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041111 0000 041111 1200 041112 0000 041112 1200
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 14.6N 68.7W 16.0N 65.3W 18.0N 62.1W 20.6N 59.0W
BAMM 14.6N 68.7W 15.1N 66.5W 16.1N 64.1W 17.3N 62.0W
A98E 14.6N 68.7W 15.0N 67.5W 15.5N 66.8W 16.0N 66.3W
LBAR 14.6N 68.7W 15.4N 67.0W 16.6N 65.5W 18.2N 63.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 30KTS
...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041113 0000 041114 0000 041115 0000 041116 0000
LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 23.4N 55.9W 26.8N 50.3W 26.3N 45.6W 24.3N 41.9W
BAMM 18.8N 59.8W 21.6N 57.6W 24.0N 56.7W 27.1N 53.9W
A98E 16.5N 65.5W 17.4N 63.4W 18.6N 61.2W 20.5N 58.3W
LBAR 19.6N 62.0W 21.8N 58.6W 24.3N 55.6W 25.7N 50.6W
SHIP 29KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 29KTS 22KTS 0KTS 0KTS
...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.6N LONCUR = 68.7W DIRCUR = 80DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 14.4N LONM12 = 70.0W DIRM12 = 76DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 71.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 45NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1007MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
For anyone interested in 91L future track which goes fishing out to sea after it exits the caribbean here is the 00:00 UTC run from the tropical models.
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cycloneye
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caribepr wrote:Does this explain why it's so COLD????? I'm wearing socks here Luis, make it stop!
There is a NE fresh breeze caused by a big high pressure to the NNW of the northern caribbean islands that is causing the fresh winds.
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