Ingredients for Winter 2004-05 Continue to Fall into Place

[Guest]

we had sub-zero last year here. no snow on the ground either. It only got to -1 though

[yoda]

we had sub-zero last year here. no snow on the ground either. It only got to -1 though

Where were you? I heard of no sub-zero reports... only that Dulles got down to 2 degrees...

[Chris the Weather Man]

That's nothing....... I heard a report of -37F in Ft Kent, ME.

[wxguy25]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

Its possible, especially on clear nights w/ light winds and dry air in place. Basically underneath a fresh Arctic high.

For example using the 850H temperature rule on a clear day in DEC or JAN you would need 850H temps of -23 DEG C or better in order to get below 0F b/c 0F = -17.7 C (rounded up to -18.0 C) so -23.0 + 5.0 = -18.0 C (-0.39F). Again, This is assuming you are dealing with clear skies during the day. The total that we add to the 850mb temp is proportional to the sun angle at a given time of year, sky conditions, and whether or not there is precip falling.

Remember, its also harder to get an airmass to modify as it moves southward if there is a substantial snowpack in place. This snowpack can also make the difference between Freezing rain and Plain rain since the air closest to the surface may be below freezing while the warm layer punches in aloft.

[Stormsfury]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

Perfect example ... January 21st, 1985 ...

and many of the locations in the Deep South did NOT have any snowcover beforehand, including Charleston, SC which reached 6º above zero, and Wilmington, NC right at 0º ... also included in the list are reading from Georgia below zero without snowcover ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... 985AO.html

[wxguy25]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

Perfect example ... January 21st, 1985 ...

and many of the locations in the Deep South did NOT have any snowcover beforehand, including Charleston, SC which reached 6º above zero, and Wilmington, NC right at 0º ... also included in the list are reading from Georgia below zero without snowcover ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... 985AO.html

That was an exceptional event, there was a core of -30 C 850H temps centered over WV at 0z 1/25/85 and much of the area where the records were broken (for temps below 0F) were underneath a pocket of -25 to -30 C h850 temps.

[Anonymous]

You want to talk JANUARY 21 1985?!!!!

We got slammed by one hell of an Arctic Blast. Here In Woodbridge, VA we picked up 2 inches of snow with the passage of this FRIGID Arctic Boundary, and temps fell overnight from 22 degrees to -2 degrees. From what I remember, that was one heck of a COLD day!!!!!!!! Our high temperature without the wind was 2 DEGREES!!!! That night, we fell to -14 degrees!!!


:sled::sled::sled:


I have heard that this winter (2004-2005) in the Mid Atlantic will be very, very cold with a very persistent -NAO but with little snow, sort of like what we experienced in 1981-82 or in 1984-85. I remember January 1985 well because I was in construction work back then, I was an outdoor laborer and MAN IT WAS SO UNBELIEVABLY FRIGID!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So we are battening down the hatches for a super-cold, devastatingly FRIGID winter with very little snow here in 2004-2005.

BRRRRRRRRRRR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tomorrow, we are only going to eke out 44 degrees for a HIGH!!! WOW folks, that is an average JANUARY high temperature!!!! If this keeps up all winter here in N VA, we could easily bust some all-time cold temperature records!!!

-Arctic JEB!!!! BRING IT!!! BRING IT!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Thanks, wxguy25!

[CaptinCrunch]

December 23, 1989 - Clear sky's -1 degrees no snow pack. It was the 3rd all time low for Dallas/Ft Worth. Some places reached a low of -4 that night.

We had a total of 21 freezes for the month that year, most ever for December.

[weatherfan]

this winter is going to be a bit more complacated to forecast then the last few because of the fact this is going to be a changeble pattern going into the winter with the signals in the pacfic and the pv.The postive factors so far is we have weak El nino in ENSO 3 and 4 and and the Alantic signal sould be a posative favor on favering a over all negative phase in the NAO and the bulding snow cover in Canadian.The factors that are in qustion but I think will play out as we go through the winter.Is the PV as we have to get that on our side of the pole.Right now its in the wrong side of our pole for any lock in a winter pattern for the time being.And also the water temperure pools Northeast of Hawil.Right now we still have that cool pool off the west coast.And the warm water trying to push east word.Until the warm water can make it way east and Northeast of Hawaii and postion it self off the west coast is only when we will start to see some changes.My thinking is with the next strong MJO push.But the over all thinking so far seems to be playing out with the core of the cold starting in the west and sifting east word as the winter gos on.However we have to use caution on this.Because in a year of changelble patterns singls.Such as this winter will be.If eather one of these singls don't change.Then there are going to be a lot of winter forecasts this year in serious trouble.And alot of dissapointment in the east and Northeast.So lets hope these changes can work it self out and all come together through the winter.

[Cumulonimbus]

Wxguy 25-Although this board is mostly concerned with the US east of the Rockies a few of us live west of there. I live in Seattle and I was living at sea level(literally, my house overlooked a bay on Puget Sound)then.The winter of 68-69 in the Pacific Northwest was a REAL winter. A very strong arctic front moved through on Dec 26th followed by temps in the single digits for lows 2 days later. 15 inches of snow fell on the 29th and 30th. A brief warmup in early Jan 69 gave us some rain but the pattern shifted about the 9th or 10th and then it was snow, snow, snow in Seattle. The month finished out with 47" and I well remember snow up to my knees for about 10-12 days of that time. The flow brought arctic air south into western Washington and the lows moved from se Alaska right down the Canadian coast into the northwest. With temps in the 20's and 30s it fell as snow...NOT rain.The pattern broke the 31st of January and a moist but much warmer flow prevailed. There hasn't been a winter like it since.
Jan 1950 is the all time winner for temps with 0 degrees being reported at the airport that month.
One thing I also remember about 1968. It was one of the wettest years on record up to then with over 40 inches of precip recorded.
This year is nothing like that(at least in November so far) and I am concerned about a possible water shortage if the pattern remains as it is. The Pacific jet is really split up so we are high and dry. I hope at least that IF the NAO does go negative that we get some precip in here and some snow in the mountains. I would love to see feet of snow at sea level this winter but I think those days are long gone. It will be interesting to watch the pattern develop and see if you folks in the east cool down as much as expected. For those of you that want snow, I hope you get your wish!

[wxguy25]

this winter is going to be a bit more complacated to forecast then the last few because of the fact this is going to be a changeble pattern going into the winter with the signals in the pacfic and the pv.The postive factors so far is we have weak El nino in ENSO 3 and 4 and and the Alantic signal sould be a posative favor on favering a over all negative phase in the NAO and the bulding snow cover in Canadian.The factors that are in qustion but I think will play out as we go through the winter.Is the PV as we have to get that on our side of the pole.Right now its in the wrong side of our pole for any lock in a winter pattern for the time being.And also the water temperure pools Northeast of Hawil.Right now we still have that cool pool off the west coast.And the warm water trying to push east word.Until the warm water can make it way east and Northeast of Hawaii and postion it self off the west coast is only when we will start to see some changes.My thinking is with the next strong MJO push.But the over all thinking so far seems to be playing out with the core of the cold starting in the west and sifting east word as the winter gos on.However we have to use caution on this.Because in a year of changelble patterns singls.Such as this winter will be.If eather one of these singls don't change.Then there are going to be a lot of winter forecasts this year in serious trouble.And alot of dissapointment in the east and Northeast.So lets hope these changes can work it self out and all come together through the winter.

I could be delirious but at last check I’ve been discussing this since the end of September. By that I mean the significance of the East Pacific Signal. If the SSTA arrangement over the EPAC does not change then its 1968-69 all over again; dueling signals w/ a predominant RNA pattern (NO sustained +PNA pattern, and weak Aleutian low) clashing with the –NAO.

[Chris the Weather Man]

That might be a very good thing for us in the East....... I remember my grandpa telling me about the 1969 winter, Snowy Feb... Very Snowy Feb.....

[Wnghs2007]

WILL THE FRIGGEN PV EVER GET OVER TO THIS SIDE OF THE POLE.

GRRRRRRRRRRR

My hopes and dreams for this winter have been dashed all hope is lost. BEcause the pattern will never change, the sucky pv will not move its lasy but from russia, the friggen relentless pacific jet wont shut down. AND THE DANG NAO IS SO POSITIVE IT AINT FUNNY! the outlooks keep getting bleaker and bleaker. Its over. Probally worst than last year when we didnt have crap. I HATE THE SE.

[yoda]

WILL THE FRIGGEN PV EVER GET OVER TO THIS SIDE OF THE POLE.

GRRRRRRRRRRR

My hopes and dreams for this winter have been dashed all hope is lost. BEcause the pattern will never change, the sucky pv will not move its lasy but from russia, the friggen relentless pacific jet wont shut down. AND THE DANG NAO IS SO POSITIVE IT AINT FUNNY! the outlooks keep getting bleaker and bleaker. Its over. Probally worst than last year when we didnt have crap. I HATE THE SE.

Don't worry KC. The NAO will turn negative soon. It will be negative by the end of December. The PV will not get to this side of the pole until at least another 2 weeks IMO.

[Wnghs2007]

WILL THE FRIGGEN PV EVER GET OVER TO THIS SIDE OF THE POLE.

GRRRRRRRRRRR

My hopes and dreams for this winter have been dashed all hope is lost. BEcause the pattern will never change, the sucky pv will not move its lasy but from russia, the friggen relentless pacific jet wont shut down. AND THE DANG NAO IS SO POSITIVE IT AINT FUNNY! the outlooks keep getting bleaker and bleaker. Its over. Probally worst than last year when we didnt have crap. I HATE THE SE.

Don't worry KC. The NAO will turn negative soon. It will be negative by the end of December. The PV will not get to this side of the pole until at least another 2 weeks IMO.

Cant.......wait.......two........weeks.......brain......functions.....shutting....
down.....MAKE....PATTERN....SHIFT....NOW!!!....Spray some sprinkly dust up into the atmosphere or something. Contact the Cherokee Indians and get the snow dance...ICE STORM Dance anything. Going....thru...dire....straights.

[yoda]

WILL THE FRIGGEN PV EVER GET OVER TO THIS SIDE OF THE POLE.

GRRRRRRRRRRR

My hopes and dreams for this winter have been dashed all hope is lost. BEcause the pattern will never change, the sucky pv will not move its lasy but from russia, the friggen relentless pacific jet wont shut down. AND THE DANG NAO IS SO POSITIVE IT AINT FUNNY! the outlooks keep getting bleaker and bleaker. Its over. Probally worst than last year when we didnt have crap. I HATE THE SE.

Don't worry KC. The NAO will turn negative soon. It will be negative by the end of December. The PV will not get to this side of the pole until at least another 2 weeks IMO.

Cant.......wait.......two........weeks.......brain......functions.....shutting....
down.....MAKE....PATTERN....SHIFT....NOW!!!....Spray some sprinkly dust up into the atmosphere or something. Contact the Cherokee Indians and get the snow dance...ICE STORM Dance anything. Going....thru...dire....straights.

Dire Straights? Not that please...

I just used the Force, no snow or ice for you for the next month.

I will try to contact the weather gods though as well...

[Wnghs2007]

Make me HAPPY!!!!! Like Dt just did on his site.




2nd NEW PV!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Hallelujah! Hallelujah! Hallelujah!:woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo: :woo:

[yoda]

Possibly, I will need to look at model progs for that though.

[Stormsfury]

Jan 1950 is the all time winner for temps with 0 degrees being reported at the airport that month.
One thing I also remember about 1968. It was one of the wettest years on record up to then with over 40 inches of precip recorded.

This correlates very well with all-time record highs set in Charleston, SC and much of the East in January 1950 ... interesting enough, later in the year, in November to be specific, the Great Appalachain Storm ....

...November 25th-26th, 1950...
A great storm hit the Northern and Central Appalachians with snow and high winds. Winds reached hurricane force along eastern slopes of the Appalachians, with gusts to 100 mph at Hartford CT, 110 mph at Concord NH, and 160 mph at Mount Washington NH. Heavy rain also hit the eastern slopes, with eight inches reported at Slide Mountain NY. The western slopes were buried under heavy snow. The storm produced record snowfall totals of 27.7 inches at Pittsburgh PA, and 36.3 inches at Steubenville OH. The snow, and record cold temperatures, resulted in 160 deaths. (25th-26th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)