92L.Invest is up

[P.K.]

Can't see any other threads about this.....

This has just appeared on the NRL website.



Currently listed as 35kts with a pressure of 1003hPa.

Currently in an area of low shear.

[vbhoutex]

Looks like it could be one for our friends across the pond. Are your mets saying anything about it yet?

[P.K.]

I haven't heard anything yet. The only post about this on any of the main UK weather forums seems to be one I posted.

[The Big Dog]

Doesn't really look tropical, though. But hey, they named Nicole, and that wasn't tropical either. This has a better chance of being Otto than that 91L blob, IMHO.

(As I write this, there are a couple people who shall remain nameless busy searching and replacing their "Otto" posts with "Paula." )

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST (AL922004) ON 20041111 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
041111 1200 041112 0000 041112 1200 041113 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 29.5N 32.5W 29.8N 33.7W 29.1N 34.7W 27.9N 35.1W
BAMM 29.5N 32.5W 30.2N 34.4W 30.5N 36.1W 30.9N 37.6W
A98E 29.5N 32.5W 30.0N 33.5W 30.2N 34.4W 30.4N 34.7W
LBAR 29.5N 32.5W 30.4N 33.4W 31.0N 34.8W 31.4N 36.6W
SHIP 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS
DSHP 35KTS 40KTS 44KTS 45KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
041113 1200 041114 1200 041115 1200 041116 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.6N 34.9W 24.9N 34.8W 25.8N 33.3W 26.1N 32.7W
BAMM 31.8N 38.8W 33.7N 40.5W 35.1N 42.7W 39.8N 40.8W
A98E 31.1N 34.6W 33.5N 34.6W 37.4N 34.9W 43.5N 31.7W
LBAR 31.9N 37.6W 34.6N 40.6W 38.9N 43.1W 46.6N 35.2W
SHIP 42KTS 35KTS 24KTS 16KTS
DSHP 42KTS 35KTS 24KTS 16KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 29.5N LONCUR = 32.5W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 6KT
LATM12 = 28.9N LONM12 = 31.3W DIRM12 = 298DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 28.4N LONM24 = 30.0W
WNDCUR = 35KT RMAXWD = 200NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1003MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 275NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 250NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 200NM

PK this may go close to your neck of the woods if the models are right after it makes a loop.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Well, the Atlantic has stepped up so far this month. It's trying to make one final run to win its 2nd straight title. But they gotta develop for it count! So hopefully this is the tying storm. The 11:30 TWO is optimistic about it being suptropical, so we'll see what happens.

Plus, the central Caribbean disturbance hasn't been ruled out yet...

[cycloneye]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 12Z NOV 11

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 29.4 32.9 300./ 6.0
6 29.6 33.5 290./ 5.2
12 29.7 34.4 279./ 8.2
18 29.6 34.9 258./ 3.9
24 29.7 35.3 275./ 4.3


According to GFDL this system maybe,maybe,maybe subtropical storm Otto will not be of a long duration due to cooler waters ahead.

[P.K.]

PK this may go close to your neck of the woods if the models are right after it makes a loop.

Anything to get rid of this anticyclonic gloom we have had over the last few days has to be good.

[James]

PK this may go close to your neck of the woods if the models are right after it makes a loop.

Anything to get rid of this anticyclonic gloom we have had over the last few days has to be good.

That's true.

[P.K.]

11/2315 UTC 30.5N 33.9W ST1.5/1.5 92

Does this mean we have Sub-Tropical Storm Otto?

Edit - Nothing on the NRL website, and usually a TD is 1.5 so I'm not sure.

[cycloneye]

11/2315 UTC 30.5N 33.9W ST1.5/1.5 92

Does this mean we have Sub-Tropical Storm Otto?

Very close to become subtropical.But the window to do so is closing.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z NOV 11

FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 30.0 33.8 305./ 8.0
6 30.2 34.9 285./ 9.8
12 30.3 35.9 274./ 8.3
18 30.3 36.8 271./ 8.5