Colder & Wetter Pattern for N-TX the rest of November

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
300 PM CST THU NOV 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT STORM SYSTEM OVER THE MS VALLEY TO CONTINUE MOVING AWAY FROM
N TX THROUGH FRI MORNING. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS OVER N TX...BUT
SOME DECOUPLING SHOULD HELP DIMINISH THEM A TAD WITH OFF AND ON LOW
CLOUD HANGING TOUGH...PARTICULARLY N/E PTNS OF N TX. WITH NNW WINDS
STAY UP SOME AND CLOUDS...DON/T EXPECT A FREEZE ANYWHERE IN N
TX...THOUGH PARTIAL CLEARING WRN/SRN COUNTIES TO HELP TEMPS FALL
INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S BY 12Z. IT/LL FEEL CHILLY ON THE MORNING WORK
COMMUTE. LOW CLOUDS WILL HANG TOUGH ALONG AND NORTH OF I-20 FRIDAY
...COOLEST TEMPS ALONG/N OF I-20. PARTIAL SUNSHINE OVER CENTRAL TX
SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS ABOUT A CATEGORY WARMER.

NOT AS COOL BY FRI NIGHT AS CLOUDS INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF S/W
EJECTING OUT OF SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN ARRIVING
TOWARDS DAWN SATURDAY WRN COUNTIES. RAIN SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY
ALONG-WEST OF I-35 CORRIDOR SAT MORNING...BEFORE BREAKING OUT OVER
ALL OF N TX BY SAT AFTN WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT/SATURATION INCREASES
RAPIDLY IN ADVANCE OF S/W MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PER LATEST MODEL
RUNS. RAISED POPS QUITE A BIT SATURDAY AND EVEN THREW IN A LITTLE
ISOLD/ELEVATED THUNDER SAT AFTN...AS LAPSE RATES ALOFT LINGER AROUND
6 DEG C/KM AND DEEP LIFT OCCURS. AS FOR TEMPS...LEANED TOWARD COOLER
MAV MOS NORTH...WITH CONSENSUS MOS MORE REASONABLE SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY SYSTEM DEPARTS N TX BY SUN MORNING WITH A REPRIEVE ON RAIN
UNTIL LATER TUES. HELD SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY OVER FAR WRN
COUNTIES DURING THIS TIME....AS NRN MEXICO/SWRN CONUS UPPER LOW
MOVES TOWARDS W TX VERY SLOWLY. CURRENT POLAR SFC HIGH SHOULD
FINALLY RELEASE IT/S GRIP ON N TX BY TUES...WITH A MODIFIED WARM UP
EXPECTED AS SFC WINDS SLOWLY RETURN FROM THE SE. FELT SLOWER
EC/UK/GFS SOLUTION LOOKED REASONABLE WITH SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS N
TX MID WEEK...AS ERN PACIFIC KICKER SYSTEM ENTERS THE W COAST.
COOLER AND DRIER LATE NEXT WEEK...BEFORE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES THAT
FOLLOWING WEEKEND.

A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OUT OF THE WESTERLIES
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THEN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. NEXT ONE IS DUE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RAIN IN THE WEST MONDAY... AND AREAWIDE TUESDAY
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. NEWEST GFS_LR RUN INDICATES A THIRD ONE
FORMING LATE NEXT WEEK THAT WILL BECOME A FULL CONTINENTAL TROUGH
AND COULD BRING US SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON JUST AHEAD
OF THANKSGIVING.

[CaptinCrunch]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
304 AM CST FRI NOV 12 2004

.DISCUSSION...
NORTH TEXAS WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN
RETURNING BACK TO NORMAL NEXT WEEK WITH AN OVERRUNNING RAIN EVENT
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SKIES GENERALLY CLOUDY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

DEEPENING UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED BY
SATURDAY WITH FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC ASCENT FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE DAY. HAVE CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS WESTERN 2/3
SATURDAY....THEN LOWERING TO CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLIPS BACK
WEST TO ABSORB AS SHORT WAVE AND UPPER JET INTO ITS WESTERN SIDE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LOW FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK... AND ALONG WITH STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC PRESSURE
ASCENT IN THE 5-10K FT LAYER... WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WEST TEXAS AND SPREAD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN THE
ECMWF RUNS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFS TRACK - WHICH IS ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO. EITHER WAY...WE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE GFS SOLUTION WOULD BE ONE THAT IS SLIGHTLY WETTER AND COOLER.
AS STATED YESTERDAY...PRECIPITATION TOTALS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY COULD BE ON THE HEAVY SIDE.

[gboudx]

Looks like a wet 4-5 days for us. If we get a precip pattern like this after an arctic frontal passage this Winter, it could be very white around here.

[CaptinCrunch]

WE HAVE EXTENDED THE FLOOD WATCH EAST TO INCLUDE DENTON & COLLIN
COUNTIES PLUS POINTS SOUTH...AND HAVE CANCELED IT IN FAR WESTERN
COUNTIES. EVIDENCE FOR HEAVY PRECIP NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER WITH
MUCH OF THE MOISTURE RAINING OUT IN HOUSTON CWA BUT QPF PROGS SHOW
DECENT ACCUMULATIONS. IN ADDITION...IN NOVEMBER NOT MUCH IS GROWING
EXCEPT WEEDS IN MY YARD...PLUS THE GROUND IS ALREADY WET ADDING TO
RUNOFF POTENTIAL. THE METROPLEX IS A BIT NORTH OF THE HEAVIEST QPF
BUT ADDED IT DUE TO ALL THE CONCRETE ENHANCING RUNOFF.

UPPER LOW TO KICK OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MOVEMENT ON THIS MODEL RUN IS FASTER THAN PREVIOUS...AND CURRENT
RADAR LOCATION OF PRECIP COMPARED TO OLD MODEL RUN SUPPORTS THIS.
RESULT...I HAVE DRIED US OUT QUICKER THAN PREVIOUS PACKAGE. RAIN
SHOULD EXIT CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS IN
EAST AFTER THURSDAY MORNING.

NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN FROM THE GULF. NO STRONG UPPER SYSTEM TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD PRECIP BUT THERE IS A BIT OF A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL
AIR ON SUNDAY TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT ALONG THE FRONT.

NEXT UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH TO MAKE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP BUT WILL KEEP POPS DOWN TO CHANCE BASED ON POOR TIMING AND
UNCERTAINTY OF UPPER LOW TRACK.

[CaptinCrunch]

NO BIG CHANGES THIS PACKAGE...RAIN STILL ON TRACK FOR WEEKEND.
INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL WITH CAPES IN THE 500 RANGE...SO MOSTLY
RAIN BUT THE OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL LIKELY CONTAIN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST WHERE MORE INSTABILITY WILL BE
PRESENT. THE FRONT NEVER DOES SHUNT BACK NORTH THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
WEEKEND SO MORE OVERRUNNING ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS UPPER LOW MOVING
INTO NEW MEXICO PROVIDES ENOUGH IMPETUS TO BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH
LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY. AS UPPER SYSTEM EXITS ACROSS THE RED
RIVER DRY LINE SWEEPS IN TUESDAY AROUND NOON AND WE DRY OUT. COLD FRONT
FOLLOWS TUESDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD BE DRY THROUGH THANKSGIVING
FRIDAY. WEST WINDS WILL KICK UP TUESDAY AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY GUSTS
INTO THE LOW 30S...AND THEN SWITCH NORTH AND STAY FAIRLY WINDY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THANKSGIVING DAY LOOKS FAIRLY SUNNY WITH WINDS LIGHT IN THE MORNING
BECOMING SOUTH DURING THE DAY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO BLOW THE TURKEY
FRYER FLAMES OUT LIKE LAST YEAR. LOWS IN THE 30S NORTHWEST TO 40S
SOUTHEAST AND HIGHS UPPER 50S.

NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY AFTER THANKSGIVING WITH
NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

[CaptinCrunch]

NWS FORT WORTH TEXAS
DISCUSSION...
358 AM CST

HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TODAY FOR THE
SOUTHERN ZONES. LARGE AREA OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED
TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST PART OF CWA THIS MORNING WITH
RADAR RAINFALL ESTIMATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN A FEW AREAS. THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY DIMINISH OR MOVE EAST OF AREA BY MID
MORNING...BUT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER MUCH OF
CWA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS NEXT SHORTWAVE APPROACHES
IN THE FAST SWLY FLOW. THE CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHING SJT AT THIS
TIME IS THE BEGINNING OF THIS NEXT WAVE OF HEAVY RAINS. ALTHOUGH
FLOOD WATCH WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTHERN ZONES WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS
HAVE FALLEN PAST 24 HOURS...WILL MENTION HEAVY RAIN IN THE ZONE
FORECASTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATE...AS THE CA UPPER
LOW BEGINS MOVING EAST. ISENTROPIC LIFTING AGAIN LOOKS STRONG...AND
WILL KEEP POPS HIGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY AS STRONGER SHEAR AND PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE
MOVE INTO AREA...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY STILL IN QUESTION.
APPEARS THAT THE BEST COMBINATION OF FORCING/INSTABILITY/SHEAR WILL
BE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST PART OF THE CWA ON TUESDAY. MORE
WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED JUST EAST OF CWA
WHERE SPC HAS MODT RISK.

STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRY SLOT SHOULD BRING AN ABRUPT END TO THE RAIN
FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY EVENING. DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

[CaptinCrunch]

.DISCUSSION...
449 AM CST

UPPER LOW TO MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION TO NORTH TEXAS. DRY SLOT VISIBLE ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE CWA WHICH
WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IN THAT AREA THIS MORNING.
HENCE WE HAVE CANCELLED THE FLOOD WATCH. STILL...SOME HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE TODAY AS THE PRECIP MOVES EAST INTO THE REGION...BUT IT
SHOULD PRIMARILY BE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTH.

SOME WRAP AROUND PRECIP POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW GRAZES THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION...THEN WE ARE IN FOR A FEW DAYS OF
PLEASANT BUT COOL WEATHER. THANKSGIVING SHOULD BE NICE FOR ALL OF
THE REGION...ALLOWING US TO START TO DRY OUT.

HOWEVER...BY THE WEEKEND WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE ANOTHER CHANCE AT
RAIN AS A LOW PUSHES INTO THE REGION. ATTM...IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE AS BIG A RAIN MAKER AS THE LAST TWO.

[gboudx]

CC, just curious, but have you experienced issues when trying to access the DFW NWS lately? It seems I've been getting a "cannot find server" error quite a bit recently.

[CaptinCrunch]

It has been pretty busy for the site with all the sever weather that has been going on. I really don't have much of a problem because I have a T1 line here at work.