Why is it?

[azsnowman]

Why is it that a forecaster gets to keep their job when their WRONG? I mean, this is the 3rd time in a ROW that the NWS FLAG has totally BLOWN their predictions of a MAJOR snow If you or I were WRONG as much they are, we would no longer have a JOB?

Dennis

[TS Zack]

We learn by our mistakes. We see many of times the NWS go mainly by the GFS model. Which is wrong with Tropical Systems as well as Predicting Winter Cold Fronts. They never put logical thinking or make their own forecasts by looking at the synoptic pattern.

Can also say laziness. Today in New Orleans(Covington,La) the NWS forecast 67 for our high. It is 10:30AM right now and we are at 52, completely clouded over, and windy. We have warmed 1 degree since the sun has come up. Now if they used logical thinking they would see the Visible Satellite and see we will not see much sun if any today. Therefore we will not be able to warm much. A good forecast would be for a high around 58. It is obvious it won't get to 67 today.

They still will keep their jobs though. What we need more of is Meteorologists who aren't scared to make a forecasts away from the models. A human forecasts is much better than a computer forecasts especially in the 24 hour range when you can see what is going on right now.

[Aslkahuna]

It's easy to criticize the forecasts when one is not trying to make one themselves. This brings up the Forecaster's Lament: "When I'm wrong no on forgets-when I'm right no one remembers". That said, the forecast I put on my homepage for the local area here is composed after I look at a whole host of models/satellite/radar info plus a healthy dose of local knowledge obtained over the 17 years I have lived here. They have been doing well as of late though like all forecasters I have my slumps.

Steve

[azsnowman]

Oh I know Steve, this was said in jest, I should have clarified this matter from the start. I know forecasting is NOT an exact science, if it where, just think how easy the job would be. Once again, this comment, question was made in jest.....sorry!

Dennis

[azskyman]

Dennis...when I lived in the Midwest where storm prediction was always tricky...each and every season, it was easy to understand the poor forecasts. That was when forecasts only came out every six hours, so if they blew the forecast one hour into that time period, they had to live with it for five hours. At least now forecasts are updated more often as needed.

Here in Phoenix, the weather is normally so easy to predict that when an even such as a rain shower or two dot the city, it is big news! Not only that, but like yesterday, I have seen bigtime rains approach the valley and literally disintigrate when they roll over the city.

Forecasting is not an exact science yet..and that's part of the fascination.

I was the local weather guy back in Illinois for 23 years. That's how everyone knew me. I took the role as local weather observer so seriously that for most of the 70's and well into the 80's, the NWS would call me for my input on some of their forecasts.

At least in doing that, we could either all take credit or all go down the tubes together.

We did plenty of both, but had fun doing it.

[Aslkahuna]

According to TUS NWS, Hannagan Meadow got 15 inches of snow so the advisory actually did verify-though just not every where.

Steve