Ingredients for Winter 2004-05 Continue to Fall into Place

[CaptinCrunch]

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
234 PM EST THU NOV 11 2004

VALID 00Z FRI NOV 12 2004 - 12Z SAT NOV 13 2004

THE UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK OVER THE WEST SHOWS SIGNS OF
WEAKENING DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A BROAD TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW
OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA IS FORECAST TO MOVE TO THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY SATURDAY MORNING AS JET ENERGY DIGS
SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW AIDED BY UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO PRODUCE
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA
MOVES SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO COME ONSHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LIKEWISE ... THIS
SYSTEM HAS WEAK ONSHORE FLOW SO SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED
TO THE NORTHWEST COASTAL AREA BY FRIDAY EVENING ... WITH RAIN
AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL CALIFORNIA BY
SATURDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE OVER THE EAST ...AMPLIFYING
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS FORECAST TO PICK UP SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY
FRIDAY EVENING. STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES
AHEAD OF WEAKENING MID LEVEL SYSTEM. THE COMBINATION OF
UPPER DYNAMICS AND LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL AID IN THE
PRODUCTION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ASSOCIATED STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS MOST OF THE MOISTURE
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY EVENING AS ELONGATED LOW
PRES MOVES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST
RAINS CONFINED TO COASTAL AREAS OF THE NRN MID ATLANTIC AND
NEW ENGLAND WITH SOME WINTERY PCPN DEVELOPING INLAND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. BEHIND THE EXITING LOW.. COLD HIGH IS FORECAST TO
BRING COLDER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S.

[KWT]

On the other side of the Atlnatic:

we are currently on the middle of a cold spell,frost was quite widespread last night,tonight is looking even colder in places,with temps of 27 forecast in a few places.snow has been confined to the north.

but just recently there looks like being another cold spell,and this time there looks to be a decent Greenland high as well at 1035mb,as well it is looking likely now as the models come into agreement,at least for the north to have a cold time,although even the south could have some very cold weather for us at this time of year.

[James]

That would be good. These wet, mild winters we've been having lately are just getting boring.

[Guest]

But Is it possible to see subzero temps WITHOUT the snowpack?

Perfect example ... January 21st, 1985 ...

and many of the locations in the Deep South did NOT have any snowcover beforehand, including Charleston, SC which reached 6º above zero, and Wilmington, NC right at 0º ... also included in the list are reading from Georgia below zero without snowcover ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Wint ... 985AO.html

That was an exceptional event, there was a core of -30 C 850H temps centered over WV at 0z 1/25/85 and much of the area where the records were broken (for temps below 0F) were underneath a pocket of -25 to -30 C h850 temps.

This is one event i will never forget seeing how i got to see a very rare thing and that was Ocean Effect snows in O.C., MD. And that was my greeting because i had just moved there the same week right before this outbreak from the DC area.

[KWT]

signs are that there *may* be a scandi high forming after next weeks possible northly,which is looking potenially very cold,infact it *could* even be cold even for snow down to low levels across most of the U.K.

Currently 1.5C here and temps are dropping away.

looking good for us on the other side of the pool.

[James]

We *might* have some snow? Now you're talking!

Temperatures here have dropped off to -1.6C.

[KWT]

not now,but next Thursday/Friday i looking intresting,although it is on a knife-edge as all November snowfalls are.

No gaurnatee,but certainly possible!

[James]

Well, it's nice to know that the potential is there!

[P.K.]

signs are that there *may* be a scandi high forming after next weeks possible northly,which is looking potenially very cold,infact it *could* even be cold even for snow down to low levels across most of the U.K.

Currently 1.5C here and temps are dropping away.

looking good for us on the other side of the pool.

Just checked the uni met station page and it says the temp here is just 1.5C I didn't think it was that cold. Think this is the coldest it has been so far, and with clear skies it could drop quite a bit more overnight

[KWT]

very very cold in places last night,Scotland got down to -10.5C in places.

and it gets better,as the models are now forecasting a cold spell between the 18-21st november,and looks to be fairly intense with a decent chance of snow in a fair few places,and there could be some very hard frosts as well.

and we also now have a very intense Greenland high at 1050mb as well!!!

[James]

Sounds good!

[KWT]

the BBc now sugesting thatwintry showers will pop up just about anywhere over the u.k.