Major Hurricane in New York...

[Anonymous]

Derek Orrt, who I count as a good friend, mentioned what horror would be done if a major hurricane (3, 4, or 5) would hit New York.

I have put together the nightmare image of a category 4 hitting in New York, but For this scenario, let's name this Hurricane Beryl.

But, many say: NO WAY A STORM COULD STAY A CATEGORY 4 THAT LONG! Well, let's say this was the track of Hurricane Beryl:


Landfall:



TALKING POINTS:

Originally expected to hit Cape Cod as a 115 mph storm, nobody in NYC is prepared.

Surge is 15-20 feet on Coney Island.

Storm crosses New York Bay and makes second landfall near: Long Island, NY still holding at 135 mph sustained.

Storm then moves over the east river (DIRECTLY OVER THE BROOKLIN BRIDGE).

The eye moves directly over Chinatown, and the eastern eyewall moves over the city. Winds of 135-140 mph with gusts 160-165 mph occur in the eye and the eyewall.

Beryl's eyewall collapses around Manhattan and the storm weakens to a category 1 only four hours after landfall.

WELL...REAL OR NOT...THAT COULD HAPPEN...

It took me an hour to make this post...so let's start a good topic on this.

[James]

That would truly be a devastating storm. The scary thing is, it is most likely within the realm of possibility. Storms have intensified to major hurricane status while being further north than New York, so a storm maintaining its CAT 4 status and just weakening a little doesn't seem that impossible. Also, if it was moving fast when it was approaching landfall, it might maintain it's strength a little more. Just my opinion, but I do hope that this scenario never occurs.

[wlfpack81]

Cat 4 may be nearly impossible but I could see a fast moving cane hitting as a Cat 3 (115-120mph) which would still spell trouble for NYC. Given all those tall buildings you'd have a lot of falling debri from higher up since the winds there would be a category higher than what's observed at the surface. Remember Bob was a weak Cat 3 (if I'm not mistaken) when it went into the NE so a hurricane in NYC isn't totally out of the question.

[James]

That's true. CAT 4 may be a little high, but then Beryl could be in the range of 110 - 115 kts, perhaps a borderline 3/4. Let's hope not, though.

[Anonymous]

If it reaches 145 mph, it could still be 135 mph at landfall as Beryl was.

[James]

You're probably right, a low CAT 4 (115kts) is quite possible. Do you have Beryl moving rapidly towards New York, i.e. similar to the speed with which Gloria approached L.I.?

[Anonymous]

Yep.

[KWT]

trust me,its possible.

Heck Lisa was a tropical storm with 60Mph sustained winds and it was only 400 odd miles SW of the U.K,which is at a much higher latitude,and although it did become extra-tropical it does prove that systems if they move fast enough can susrvive,also Karl made it as far north as 45 degrees and was still a hurricane so yes,it's quite possible providing it moves fast enough and has a deep flareup of convection while its heading northwards.

[Brent]

It would have to move at 35 mph or greater.

[Derek Ortt]

we were shown a glimpse of what would happen with Gloria. Had it have came in as the 100KT storm that it was reported to be operationally, instead of the 75KT storm that it ended up making landfall as (and that may get lowered further on the re-analysis), the damage would have likely been much worse than even the 9/11 air raid as Gloria did pass over western Long Island, affecting the eastern portions of the city. What was the NYC attidue? well according to the then Mayro Ed Koch "We scared the hell out of the hurricane"

[Derek Ortt]

I'm actually mroe concerned about a cane making landfall in northern New Jersey, mvoing to the NE or NNW. If a major hits in this area, NYC won't be under 15-20 feet of water, more like 30 to 40. The estimates are that if a cat 4 were to ever hit the city, JFK airport would be under at least 30 feet of water. This is a Bay of Bengal type surge prone region

[Hurricanehink]

Wow, Derek. If that would happen, a good part of NJ would also probably be flooded. I'd be a goner. Let's just hope it doesn't happen.

[Scorpion]

The chances are extremely small IMO. It would have to be in July or August or early September so the SST's would be warm enough, and cold fronts that strong to pick up the TC usually don't come til later. What was the last major to hit NYC?

[recmod]

It would have to be in July or August or early September so the SST's would be warm enough, and cold fronts that strong to pick up the TC usually don't come til later.

Never say never.....
Unusually strong cold fronts DO occur this early in the season. We need not look any further back than August of this year. Remember what turned Charley northward...


--Lou

[Derek Ortt]

Actually, I believe it is more likely for a late September or October storm to give the doomsday scenario to NYC than earlier in the seaosn. The reason for this is that the trough could become negatively tilted during these months, and actually draw the storm into the coast instead of keeping it out to sea

[James]

That's a good point, Derek. It does seem that most of the hurricanes that have affected the area tend to occur in the second half of September. Not always, but that is often the case.

[Brent]

I'm actually mroe concerned about a cane making landfall in norhtern New Jersye, mvoing to the NE or NNW. If a major hits in this area, NYC wont be under 15-20 feet of water, more like 30 to 40. The estimates are that iof a cat 4 were to ever hit the city, JFK airport would be under at least 30 feet of water. This is a Bay of Bengal type surge prone region

[tallywx]

How would you place the comparative odds of this happening to say, a New Orleans doomsday scenario or a direct hit right between Ft. Lauderdale/Miami?

[Scorpion]

A direct hit by a major between Ft Lauderdale/Miami has the biggest chances hands down.

[Derek Ortt]

New Orleans by a long shot.

Miami is next with NYC not being that far behind Miami

One must remember, Miami does NOT get hit by many hurricanes from the east. Most of ours come from the south, which would eliminate the storm surge aspect and the hurricane would make landfall first in the keys, then go through the southern subarbs fior about 30 miles, which would weaken the hurricane at least 1.5 categories prior to impacting the center of the city