Tropical Storm Muifa at South China Sea

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/132000Z NOV 04//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z5 --- NEAR 10.5N6 134.0E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N6 134.0E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z8 --- 10.9N0 132.6E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 11.4N6 131.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.0N3 129.8E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 12.6N9 128.6E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 13.9N3 126.5E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z8 POSITION NEAR 10.6N7 133.7E4.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH OF
PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 132330Z2 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASED DEEP CONVECTION
AROUND A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION IS STRONGEST ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z5
IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMA-
TION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
132000Z NOV 04 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 132000)
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z4, 141500Z1, 142100Z8 AND 150300Z9.//

Looks like the Phillipines will see this cyclone make landfall there.This is the only system to look at in the whole world at the tropic areas.

[HURAKAN]

Over all, the Philippines have been very lucky this year, the most important landfall this season has been Nida around May. Everything has been concentrating in Japan this season.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, based upon that forecast track it could just as easily turn north east of the Philippines. You need more of a straight runner this time of year to hit the Philippines or a formation further to the east and at a lower latitude.

Steve

[Anonymous]

I think it will be around 100 kts on the 17th or sooner. Hold me to that.

[The Big Dog]

I think it will be around 100 kts on the 17th or sooner. Hold me to that.

You know we will.

[cycloneye]

140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z1 --- NEAR 10.7N8 131.4E9
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N8 131.4E9
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z4 --- 11.4N6 129.5E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 12.6N9 127.8E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.5N9 126.4E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.0N5 125.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.7N2 124.1E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z4 POSITION NEAR 10.9N0 130.9E3.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 645 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 140530Z3
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION, HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z1 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT
INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z1, 142100Z8, 150300Z9 AND
150900Z5.//


So far 29W is not forecast to become a typhoon but that could change.

[cycloneye]

141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z8 --- NEAR 11.3N5 130.1E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N5 130.1E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z6 --- 12.2N5 128.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 13.1N5 127.2E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 13.8N2 126.0E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.2N7 123.9E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 14.1N6 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 13.8N2 119.4E5
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 12.1N4 117.3E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z1 POSITION NEAR 11.5N7 129.7E9.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 141130Z0
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 AND 35 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z8 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO
WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 142100Z8, 150300Z9, 150900Z5 AND 151500Z2.//
NNNN

Upgraded to a tropical storm but still not forecast to become a typhoon as it moves into the China Sea.

[cycloneye]

At NRL site they changed from 29w to Muifa.So the next advisory will be issued as TS Muifa.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z4 --- NEAR 12.4N7 127.6E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N7 127.6E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z2 --- 13.4N8 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 14.0N5 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.4N9 123.4E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.4N9 122.1E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.1N6 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 13.1N5 118.7E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 12.3N6 116.2E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z8 POSITION NEAR 12.7N0 127.2E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
141730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), AND THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION CONTINUES TO LEAD THE LLCC IN THE NORTH AND
WEST QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW EXCEPT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z4 IS
12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z9, 150900Z5, 151500Z2 AND 152100Z9.//

Still at this warning #4 it is not forecast to be a typhoon but let's see when it gets into the China Sea if it gets stronger.If you look at the pic at this thread you see a red signal that is where the center of Muifa is semiexposed due to some shear blowing there.

[Scorpion]

Let me guess, its gonna become a Super Typhoon and strike the Phillipines like all the 400 others that have struck it.

[Aslkahuna]

What happens in the SCS after the storm crosses the Philippines is very dependent upon the latitude at which it emerges. I've seen a lot of storms in the SCS and in November those poleward of 15N don't fare too well as the NE Monsoon is generally well established in the northern sections of the SCS by then. Besides bringing cooler and drier air, the NE monsoon has NE flow from H7-6 on down and SE (this time of year above) so the storms tend to shear apart. The storm would have to do some very quick organizing and deepening if it were to Super before hitting the Bicol region of SE Luzon as forecast.

Steve

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z6 --- NEAR 11.7N9 127.8E8
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.7N9 127.8E8
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z9 --- 12.1N4 126.2E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 12.5N8 125.0E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 12.7N0 124.0E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 12.7N0 122.7E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z9 --- 11.9N1 120.6E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z0 --- 10.8N9 117.9E8
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z2 --- 10.1N2 114.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z9 POSITION NEAR 11.8N0 127.4E4.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
142330Z3 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 AND 45 KNOTS.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULA-
TION IS DETACHED FROM THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION AND IS POSITIONED
FURTHER EAST THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO TAKE THIS NEW INFORMATION INTO CONSIDERATION. ENHANCED
INFRARED AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DECREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIF-
ICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z6 IS 12 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR
ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z5,
151500Z2, 152100Z9 AND 160300Z0.//

Land interaction is affecting the storms structure.

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z2 --- NEAR 12.8N1 127.1E1
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N1 127.1E1
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z5 --- 13.3N7 125.9E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 13.5N9 124.5E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 13.5N9 123.1E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 13.1N5 121.8E2
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z5 --- 11.9N1 119.5E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z6 --- 11.4N6 116.8E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z8 --- 11.0N2 114.0E6
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z5 POSITION NEAR 12.9N2 126.8E7.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 360 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
150530Z4 MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS FULLY EXPOSED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
LOCATED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 150600Z2 IS 13 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA
HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z2, 152100Z9, 160300Z0
AND 160900Z6.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z9 --- NEAR 13.8N2 125.8E6
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N2 125.8E6
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z7 --- 14.3N8 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z0 --- 14.5N0 123.7E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z8 --- 14.3N8 122.6E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z1 --- 13.7N1 121.5E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z2 --- 12.4N7 118.9E9
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z3 --- 11.9N1 116.5E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z5 --- 11.6N8 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z2 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 125.5E3.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON
151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS.
RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE ONCE FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED BACK UNDER THE
CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z9 IS 14 FEET.
REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z9, 160300Z0, 160900Z6 AND 161500Z3.//
NNNN

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W
/WARNING NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 151200Z9 TO 201200Z5 NOV 2004.
A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 151130Z1 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF 35 KNOTS. RECENT ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
THE ONCE FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS MOVED
BACK UNDER THE CONVECTION.
B. TS 29W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD FOR
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST.
BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48 THE RIDGE WILL BUILD WESTWARD CAUSING TS
29W TO SHIFT TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS
CONSISTING OF UKMET, NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, EGRR, JGSM, AND NCEP
GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FOLLOWING
DYNAMIC AIDS, JTYM, WBAI AND TCLAPS, ARE POLEWARD OUTLIERS, AND
MM5 BEGINS AS A POLEWARD OUTLIER THEN SHIFTS TO AN EQUATORWARD
TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE
DYNAMIC AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON WBAR, JTYM, TCLAPS, AND MM5.
C. TS 29W IS TRACKING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. INTENSIFICATION IS
EXPECTED AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.
D. CURRENT AND FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR
AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM.
E. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-
WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
TO THE WEST OF TS 29W BECOMES THE DOMINATE STEERING RIDGE. ONCE TS
29W HAS MOVED OVER THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS INTO THE WARMER WATERS OF
THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IT IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY.
3. FORECAST TEAM: PITTS/HEATH/FUNK//
NNNN

Dont expect this storm to intensify into a typhoon.

[Anonymous]

Man...I got so used to The July/August/September where they forecast 40 kts in 3 days, and it ends up being 140 kts. I keep forgeting...ITS NOVEMBER!

[cycloneye]

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 29W (MUIFA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z5 --- NEAR 13.8N2 125.7E5
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N2 125.7E5
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z3 --- 14.3N8 124.6E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z6 --- 14.6N1 123.5E1
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z4 --- 14.4N9 122.5E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z7 --- 14.0N5 121.6E0
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z8 --- 12.6N9 119.2E3
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z9 --- 11.0N2 116.6E4
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z1 --- 10.0N1 113.2E7
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z9 POSITION NEAR 13.9N3 125.4E2.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED
ON 151730Z7 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
35 AND 45 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z5 IS
16 FEET. REFER TO WWPW31 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORM-
ATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z0, 160900Z6, 161500Z3 AND
162100Z0.//



The storm center will pass over or very close to Manila.

[James]

Hey, if the storm were to pass far enough south, is there any chance of it making it through into the Bay of Bengal? It's a long shot I know, but I was just wondering. Even though the end of the forecast track has it curving northward, they are pretty uncertain that far out.

[cycloneye]

Hey, if the storm were to pass far enough south, is there any chance of it making it through into the Bay of Bengal? It's a long shot I know, but I was just wondering. Even though the end of the forecast track has it curving northward, they are pretty uncertain that far out.

If it sinks more south than forecasted yes it well may get into Bay of Bengal.

[HurricaneBill]

2 storms that moved into the Bay of Bengal where Super Typhoon Gay in 1989 and Typhoon Linda in 1997.

[Aslkahuna]

It would, of course, have to transit the entire lower SCS, the Gulf of Siam (Thailand) and the Malay Peninsula before it entered the Andaman Sea and the Bay of Bengal. For the record, however, there HAVE been storms that have tracked across the Philippines and then hit Viet Nam with the remnants making it all of the way across to redevelop in the Bay of Bengal-it's rare, but in 1972 two storms did just that.

About November in WPAC. In actuality, there can be some quiet intense storms in November in WPAC. In 1975, a November storm named June set the then world's record low pressure at 875 mb in the Philippine Sea SW of Guam-that record stood for 4 years. The US Navy found out much to their sorrow in 1944 that December typhoons can become quite intense as well. WPAC is not like the Atlantic, you can have typhoons there any month of the year (though February through April is the low season) and you can have Supers almost anytime though they are very rare January through March.

Steve