Major Hurricane in New York...

[isobar]

RE: NYC landfall ... The forward speed would be the big player as to whether the system hangs onto its major status, not to mention the preparedness - or unpreparedness - of NYC citizens. It wouldn't necessarily have to have the 60 mph forward motion of 1938 New Eng cane to kick butt. (which was cat 3, 946 mb and retained hurricane strength well into Canada.)

Kewl graphics, Floydbuster!

[Scorpion]

Those 952 MB seem pretty high for a Cat 4 and I am pretty sure that storms expand their windfield quite a bit when being pulled north by a trough. Wouldn't the hurricane also ingest tons of dry air on the way up?

[Derek Ortt]

I think if a cat 5 were moving at 330, it wouldnt have to move all that fast to still be a major into NYC, because it would be moving into the cold waters not until about 38.5-39N. On this angle, even a 15-20 m.p.h. storm would be devastating

The pressure of 952 would likely support a marginal cat 2 hurricane for NYC due to the windfield expansion. Gloria has 961 and supported "75KT" winds (more like 60KT).

As an aside, the 1938 hurricane was a marginal cat 3 when it made landfall, with maximum winds in the 100-105KT region. An interesting note about tht storm was even though NYC was missed a direct hit, the Empire State Building swayed 4 inches. 8 more means "Timber!" Thus, even a direct hit from a strong 2 or a marginal 3 will wipe out large portions of NYC

[Scorpion]

Wow, so Gloria may not have been even a hurricane at landfall? And what would happen if a Cat 5 hit NYC(not like its possible). Would many older buildings collapse? That in addition to the flooding could kill thousands.

[Derek Ortt]

this may sound somewhat insensitive, but if a cat 4 or 5 does make a direct hit in NYC, the 9/11 air raid will be a picnic compared to the horrors of what would happen

[Guest]

unless it pulls an andrew and strengthens over land....

[Derek Ortt]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archiv ... elim03.gif

this indicates that the only sustained hurricane winds from gloria were ibserved at higher elevations. Thus, it is possible, if not probable that Gloria weakened to a tropical storm before landfall

One other possible scenario that would cause mass destruction for the city. The Michael scenario where a weak hurricane rapidly undergoes unexpected QG intensification north of the Gulfstream and plows into the city as a strong cat 2. This may be the more likely scenario

[Anonymous]

Iris in 2001 was 145 mph/950 mb
Charley in 2004 was 150 mph/941 mb

[Derek Ortt]

dynamically, you cannot keep a storm that small that far to the north. The larger size means the lower the wind speed for a respective pressure and pressure gradient

[HURAKAN]

It will be a really catastrophic situation, but sooner or later it will have to be faced and there must be a plan in any case "BERYL" becomes a reality. Evacuating the whole population will be almost impossible, going underground will be an stupid idea since they will be the first one to be flooded. Buildings may be safer then undergrounds but as you go up, the winds also do.

[Anonymous]

Derek Orrt, who I count as a good friend, mentioned what horror would be done if a major hurricane (3, 4, or 5) would hit New York.

I have put together the nightmare image of a category 4 hitting in New York, but For this scenario, let's name this Hurricane Beryl.

But, many say: NO WAY A STORM COULD STAY A CATEGORY 4 THAT LONG! Well, let's say this was the track of Hurricane Beryl:


Landfall:



TALKING POINTS:

Originally expected to hit Cape Cod as a 115 mph storm, nobody in NYC is prepared.

Surge is 15-20 feet on Coney Island.

Storm crosses New York Bay and makes second landfall near: Long Island, NY still holding at 135 mph sustained.

Storm then moves over the east river (DIRECTLY OVER THE BROOKLIN BRIDGE).

The eye moves directly over Chinatown, and the eastern eyewall moves over the city. Winds of 135-140 mph with gusts 160-165 mph occur in the eye and the eyewall.

Beryl's eyewall collapses around Manhattan and the storm weakens to a category 1 only four hours after landfall.

WELL...REAL OR NOT...THAT COULD HAPPEN...

It took me an hour to make this post...so let's start a good topic on this.

HEY!!!! Your "Beryl" sloshed the hell outa MY BELOVED OBX!!! Look out, those are my precious Outer Banks!!!

j/k


-Jeb

[Guest]

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/pub/storm_archives/atlantic/prelimat/atl1985/gloria/prelim03.gif

this indicates that the only sustained hurricane winds from gloria were ibserved at higher elevations. Thus, it is possible, if not probable that Gloria weakened to a tropical storm before landfall

One other possible scenario that would cause mass destruction for the city. The Michael scenario where a weak hurricane rapidly undergoes unexpected QG intensification north of the Gulfstream and plows into the city as a strong cat 2. This may be the more likely scenario

First off i lived at the MD coast (Ocean City, MD) when she rolled thru and the damage there it caused says it was atleast a medium cat 1 ATLEAST! Some roofs were torn off (And not old ones either). billboard signs blown out or away. and phone booths (far enough away from the beach not to be caused by the waves)smashed to nothing, oh and the boardwalk for the most part was destroyed by the stormsurge. The Island OC sits on is about 5 or 6 feet or so above sea level and some parts of the main highway there had up to 3feet of sand covering it which imo suggest atleast a 8foot storm surge. I have been thru some mighty nor'easters there as well which had wind gust up to and over hurricane force and didnt come close to seing that kind of Damage that Gloria did.

Either way IMHO this re-assesment of thiers is BUNK!

[Derek Ortt]

I'm talking about Long Island. Since when did Marylan become a part of Long Island.

However, Ocean City did not sustain hurricane force winds from Gloria, again, people cannot use damage to detect the intensity of a hurricane at a particular location.

They are matching all best tracks with the latest science

[vbhoutex]

Now Derek explain to me how one is supposed to determine intensity in an area where there isn't a recording instrument? If damage and damage patterns aren't used what would be? Do we throw out the fujita scale?(yes I know it is being revisited as is the saffir-simpson scale) Science is great but it is not the be all end all and it certainly can only determine "Exactly" what was there if there are recording instruments to tell it what was there. To me what you do not say, but almost suggest, whether you mean to or not, is that unless scientists determine it was so with their exact science, then it didn't happen. Impossible, imo.

[Derek Ortt]

A person can tell a general range; however, this is usually overestimated. I will admit, I did this by about 15KT with the wind during Michelle by thinking that I was receiving storm force gusts at Pampano, when in reality, it was only gale.

To compare damage based upon wind is very tricky indeed because of the fact that there are many more factors other than wind that need to be factored in, such as building codes, etc.

I would suggest that Charley in 1986 was worse than Gloria wind wise. No doubt about that one, that was a landfalling cane at Ocean City. Gloria likely brought upper TS winds to Ocean City with gusts over 90-100 m.p.h., which did the damage.

What I am trying to say is that spot estimates are simply unreliable due to many other factors that cause the damage rather than absolute wind speed

[HurricaneBill]

Derek, you are going simply by wind and wind alone because that is what the Saffir-Simpson scale is based on. However, the Saffir-Simpson scale also lists pressure and surge with the storm.

I know you said the surge was based on a Miami surge. But that still leaves the pressure. I know you said a hurricane's category is based on wind and wind alone. Why bother taking the barometric pressure then?

In NC, Gloria had sustained winds of 105 mph. (I know, I know, that's not what the re-analysis says, but until the NHC starts going by the re-analysis, I'm sticking with the 105 mph.)

Although the winds were 105 mph, the pressure was 942 mb. That is a lower pressure than bona-fide Category 3 hurricanes Allen, Frederic, Celia, and Betsy. Almost as low as Charley and on par with Opal.

The Category 3 listing for Gloria was probably a compromise between the winds and pressure.

But apparently pressure means nothing in regards to a hurricane's intensity so we'll just toss that out the window just like the surge.

You're basing the fury of a hurricane on a small streak of winds. Forgive me, but that sounds kind of ridiculous.

It's so easy for you to dismiss wind readings as "elevation was too high", "not a reliable instrument", "they don't know what they're talking about", "you overestimated, everyone does", "that was damage from gusts", etc.

Derek, you have to understand something. A New England hurricane is not the same as a Florida hurricane.

I respect you and think you're somebody who knows a great deal about hurricanes. However, scientifically, you seem rigid. No matter how exact scientific information and data may be, there still has to be some flexibility.

I'm not trying to get you to say you're wrong and I'm right. I'm not trying to put you down or insult you. All I'm saying is that in regards to hurricanes, there may be some stuff you still have to learn.

[Derek Ortt]

the SS scale is wind alone according to the NHC and this is how they're assigning categories now. The pressure should not be on the scale, but is used for determining the hostorical intensity of a cane

[HurricaneBill]

the SS scale is wind alone according to the NHC and this is how they're assigning categories now. The pressure should not be on the scale, but is used for determining the hostorical intensity of a cane

Don't compare me to Greatone when I say this, but the NHC is wrong. (Wrong ONLY in basing the SS scale on just wind)

There is a heck of a lot more to a hurricane than the winds.

I guess all we can do is just simply agree to disagree.

[Derek Ortt]

I personally dont like the SS Scale since a short duration of 120 m.p.h. wind can do less damage than a long duration 110 m.p.h. wind (we just saw that with Frances and Jeanne, Jeanne did mopre damage to individual structures, but Frances did more overall damage)

Maybe the only other option is to switch to a 10 min sustained wind, which would level things out a lot

[Hurricaneman]

Does anyone think this horrible senario will play out