First MAJOR Winter system on it's way!

[azsnowman]

If eveything holds together THIS time this COULD be the FIRST MAJOR system of the season! We'll see!

FXUS65 KFGZ 201059 AFDFGZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF 330 AM MST SAT NOV 20 2004 .SYNOPSIS...A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL BRING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE BREEZY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW AND VALLEY RAIN. && .DISCUSSION...PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FIRST SHORTWAVE IS MOVING INTO EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE IS DEEPENING AS IT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND INTO THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM PER LATEST MODEL RUN IS DEVELOPING THE MAIN INGREDIENTS NEEDED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. STILL UNCERTAIN OF THE ORIGIN OF THE MOISTURE...HOWEVER PER THE GFS...THIS SYSTEM PULLS A LOT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST AND WRAPS IT INTO THE SYSTEM. THERE WILL BE GOOD PRECIP EFFICIENCY WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO THE COLDER AIR COMING INTO THE SYSTEM. ANOTHER FACTOR GOING FOR THIS SYSTEM...IT WILL INITIALLY BE SLOW TO MOVE EAST...PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL BE UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFT STARTING LATER TONIGHT LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY...A GOOD 24 TO 36 HOURS. DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD MODERATE TO STRONG OROGRAPHICS WILL BE CREATING LIFT OVER THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...BRADSHAW MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHEAST PLATEAUS. A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY ABOVE 4500 FEET STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.



The actual forecast is calling for storm totals of 10-12" by Monday morning, GOD let's HOPE SO!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

Keeping my fingers crossed for ya!

Denver and Colorado Springs is getting a nice little storm today.

[Guest]

Its looking good Dennis as far as the ETA and GFS goes!


ETA Next 48hrs total precip!


GFS total precip for next 48hrs!


Hopefully they will verify for you!

[KWT]

hope it pulls of for you lot.

[Aslkahuna]

Actually, that precip bullseye is rather west of Pinetop which is in eastern AZ not all that far from the NM state line. The precipitation distribution is typical of a winter storm of this nature with the heaviest rain/snow across northern AZ with lesser amounts as you go east and south with the SE corner (where I'm at) getting the least amount of anything.

Steve

[azsnowman]

HERE IT IS!

15-24" TOTALS?!?!?!?!


AZZ011-014-016>018-210100-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
LITTLE COLORADO RVR VLY IN APACHE CO-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
WHITE MOUNTAINS-
1030 AM MST SAT NOV 20 2004

...WINTER STORM WATCH ABOVE 5000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON..

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ABOVE 6000-6500 FEET TONIGHT
WITH AN INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED BY MORNING. SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...WITH A
STEADY SNOW EXPECTED ABOVE 5000 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL
CONTINUE AND WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO
15 INCHES ABOVE 5000 FEET...TO 18 TO 24 INCHES ABOVE 7000 FEET.

[breeze]

OK, Dennis - we're expecting to see some photos
from this, now, 'ya here? LOL, me thinks that
Old Man Winter is finally waking up!

[Aslkahuna]

Depending upon which model QPF you want to accept (and there's at least 6 to choose from) the incoming storm will be either an ordinary 8-12 incher for the Rim and Mountains or the 15-24 incher that Flag is going for. I tend to be conservative myself. The same QPF's have us either in the 0.1-.25in rainfall or the 0.50-0.75 in. Since the highest peaks of the Huachucas get about 3 times as much water than we do we could see upwards of 20 inches on Miller. However, I'm am leaning towards the smaller amounts down here since this type of system usually gives us 0.3in of rain or less.

Steve

[azsnowman]

They have backed off just a "tad" on the snowfall totals, not MUCH mind you! We'll just have to wait until the "Fat Lady sings"!!!

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
500 AM MST SUN NOV 21 2004

...A WINTER STORM WATCH AND SNOW ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ARIZONA ABOVE 6000 FEET THROUGH MONDAY..

.A STRONG WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA AND
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY...AND ACROSS ARIZONA TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH SNOW LEVELS AROUND 6000 FEET.PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
EAST ON MONDAY.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM
ABOVE 6000 FEET. STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING WILL
RANGE FROM 8 TO 12 INCHES ABOVE 6000 FEET...TO AS MUCH AS TWO FEET
OF SNOW ABOVE 8000 FEET.

TRAVELERS AND OTHERS WITH OUTDOOR INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STAY TUNED TO YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR
CHECK THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOME PAGE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
FOR UPDATES ON THIS STORM.

[azsnowman]

Reports of HEAVY snow in Flagstaff as of 15 minutes ago, nothing here just yet, cloud cover, is however, starting to increase as are the winds.....winds out of SW @ 19, gusting to near 35 MPH, temp is dropping like a ROCK!

Dennis

[Stephanie]

TWC was discussing the snows in Flagstaff an hour ago. I was thinking of you!

[azsnowman]

AND YET ANOTHER "@#&$(*$#" BUST NOT a SINGLE FRIGGIN' FLAKE! AH WELL........S**T happens, MAYBE another time, MAYBE in another life we'll have a NORMAL winter, NOT THIS YEAR!

Dennis

[azsnowman]

BTW...this makes "5" BUSTED forecasts in a row now!

I know, I know...
if I think I can better
then DO IT, RIGHT? "LOL!"
I know I've said this a MILLION
times too, but DANG, I wish just
ONCE the NWS FLAG would
pull their HEADS out and LOOK
out the WINDOW when forecasting!

Dennis

[Aslkahuna]

You should wait until the storm at least passes through AZ before calling a forecast a bust. The ULL is still in SE CA and isn't expected to pass our longitude until tomorrow night. If by Tuesday morning you don't get anything THEN you can call it a bust. One of your busts may have busted for you but Hannagan Meadow caught 15 inches of snow and we still have snow on the Huachucas from that one.

Steve

[azsnowman]

The reason for calling it a bust already, NWS FLAG, in their morning AFD has said the cut off low will lift to the NE, taking the same route from which it entered S. Calif., hence the reason for my BUST call. I know calling the exact track of a "Cut Off Low" has GOT to very difficult to say the least.

Dennis

[azsnowman]

The system DID actually make it here, not QUITE the snow event as first forecasted, and to the NWS dismay, it did NOT track in a N/NE pattern as the second NAFD eluded to. I do however, have 6" solid on the ground with heavy snow still occuring at this present time.

Dennis