**POTENTIAL** First EUS winter storm NOV 28-DEC 1

[wxguy25]

Chris - IF the NAO is positive and there is no 50-50 low, or cold high in place then i have a hard time seeing how this would be anything other than Rain for the big cities since the track of the 850mb low would be from TX into the eastern lakes.

On the other hand those features ARE there, we would be talking about a Miller type B east coast snowstorm w/ SLP running into the ERN OV or SERN Lakes before jumping to the MA coast b/c of the blocking. This is the type of Scenario the 0z GGEM had.



The later situation would probably mean a sloppy mess in the big cities and perhaps a good dumping of snow inland.

[Anonymous]

We had a nice snow in 1983, February 11 1983. That storm dumped 17 inches here in Woodbridge, Va. The weather was refreshingly cool, the day began at 19 degrees, then it cooled down as the snowy day wore on, it was 11 degrees at 530pm.

What a SPECTACULAR day it was!!! I was out in the storm enjoying jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk and shoveling massive amounts of snow while the Virginia Department of Transportation continued in an out of control backspin. Their vehicles were mired in the snowpack while I effortlessly continued to dig snow!!!

That was a memorable storm and the weather was so excellent!!


-Arctic Jeb!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! BRING IT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Chris the Weather Man]

Thanks for analysis, wxguy25. I hope we get a snowstorm like the (Blizzard of 2004 in Halifax)

A Weather Bomb..... In the Northeast I-95 this winter.

[yoda]

Thanks for analysis, wxguy25. I hope we get a snowstorm like the (Blizzard of 2004 in Halifax)

A Weather Bomb..... In the Northeast I-95 this winter.

Such as the Blizzard of 96?

[wxguy25]

Here is an example of a miller type B MAJOR east coast snowstorm.

12z 12-24


00z 12-25


12z 12-25


And the End Result:

00z 12-26

[Wnghs2007]

The new 10 day EMCWF has me very unhappy. Major SE Ridge. And the NAO is all but gone. Or never exsisted. Oh well always January and February.

[QCWx]

That map is only valid for Dec 1st. All of the people belly aching over one dissapointing run need to calm down.

[Chris the Weather Man]

The new 10 day EMCWF has me very unhappy. Major SE Ridge. And the NAO is all but gone. Or never exsisted. Oh well always January and February.

Really?

[Chris the Weather Man]

Thanks for analysis, wxguy25. I hope we get a snowstorm like the (Blizzard of 2004 in Halifax)

A Weather Bomb..... In the Northeast I-95 this winter.

Such as the Blizzard of 96?

Halifax got 37.4 inches of snow from the 2004 storm, I would love to see that much here....

[Stormsfury]

notice the PV exiting off the Asian Coast ... IMHO, there just isn't enough ridging downstream being depicted, but then again ... this is a 3 day AVG ...

[Chris the Weather Man]

Still, there is plenty of time to see if this is correct...

[wxguy25]

KC, pal, take some



And CHILL OUT!! I find the 12z ECMWF to be a suspicious anyway. Let’s see what the rest of the 0z Suite has to offer.

[Chris the Weather Man]

KC, pal, take some



And CHILL OUT!! I find the 12z ECMWF to be a suspicious anyway. Let’s see what the rest of the 0z Suite has to offer.

Good one wxguy25.. Yes, I do too....

[Wnghs2007]

KC, pal, take some



And CHILL OUT!! I find the 12z ECMWF to be a suspicious anyway. Let’s see what the rest of the 0z Suite has to offer.

Pepto-bismol. ROFL

Once the 0z EMCWF comes out. Can you give some thoughts on it.

[wxguy25]

here is the 12z ECMWF to D+10

http://meteocentre.com/models/ecmwf_ame ... 9panel.gif

[Chris the Weather Man]

I think it could be a tough situation, but its only one run....

[wxguy25]

On the D7 Canadian from 0z which I posted last night—notice how the Jet splits before hitting North America. That’s what we need to see more of. BUT its going to be hard to get a sustained +PNA pattern or REX BLOCKING along the west coast and in the EPAC w/ the strong Aleutian low unless the SSTA configuration changes and the warm pool re-develops in the GOA.

The strong warm pool NW of HI which we were dealing w/ much of last month and the first week of this month has weakened, dispersed to a degree, and moved off to the east NOT NE into the GOA. It is significant since you get for the most part a fast zonal flow over that region (enhanced PAC JET) instead of the SW to NE flow you would see IF there were a pronounced Aleutian low in place.

Bottom line, the PAC set-up is looking more and more like 1968-69.

BTW heck of a SVR wx outbreak coming for AR/MS/LA/TX TUE and WED as the potent closed h500 low and associated vort max creates an environment favorable for strong large scale forcing/ upward motion over the region enhanced by divergence in the left exit region of a strong h300 jet streak rounding the base of the negatively tilted trough.





Gravity wave formation MAY also occur. Notice the jet maximum rounding the base of the trough and propagating toward the ridge axis and pronounced diffluence over the region w/ the SFC warm front to the south.