From Jackson afternoon discussion
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MGC
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- Joined: Sun Mar 23, 2003 9:05 pm
- Location: Pass Christian MS, or what is left.
From Jackson afternoon discussion
This from the Jackson MS forecast discussion this afternoon: "Jackson forecast area is expected to experience significant tornadoes, damaging winds, flash flooding and large hail." Looks like the outbreak might come to pass. Hope things don't play out as expected.....MGC
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Hopefully things don't get that bad MGC. However I'm looking at a scenario that is ideal for supercell development and the timing of it is what I'm worried about because of it striking mostly during the night time hours and overnight tomorrow night. The fact this is occurring at night means two things. First the jet stream tends to be stronger at night, so storms maybe stronger and more intense. Secondly if severe weather and tornadoes are approaching, waiting to see it come is a deadly mistake because it's likely to be dark and you won't see anything coming.
With a warm front overhead and the strong jet stream disturbance approaching along with an intensifying area of low pressure, storms could tap into shifting winds aloft allowing for enhanced severe including damaging wind, large hail, flooding rains, and tornadoes. My concern for Mississippi is that tornadoes could be significant and possibly destructive occurring late into the night tomorrow.
Jet stream in the upper levels will plow in at 140 knots. Meanwhile mid level winds will be from the southwest at 100 knots. Low level jet will be from the south at 60-70 knots. Meanwhile surface winds along and north of the warm front will be from the east and southeast. This turning of the winds with height combined with the tremendous wind energy with this thing will easily allow any storms to rotate and go tornado. This is why I'm so concerned about tomorrow night for Mississippi as severe threat could be quite significant and needs to be taken seriously. Mississippi might end up being the hardest hit location of all during this outbreak given the environment they're in.
We hope for the best, but prepare for the worse tomorrow.
Jim
With a warm front overhead and the strong jet stream disturbance approaching along with an intensifying area of low pressure, storms could tap into shifting winds aloft allowing for enhanced severe including damaging wind, large hail, flooding rains, and tornadoes. My concern for Mississippi is that tornadoes could be significant and possibly destructive occurring late into the night tomorrow.
Jet stream in the upper levels will plow in at 140 knots. Meanwhile mid level winds will be from the southwest at 100 knots. Low level jet will be from the south at 60-70 knots. Meanwhile surface winds along and north of the warm front will be from the east and southeast. This turning of the winds with height combined with the tremendous wind energy with this thing will easily allow any storms to rotate and go tornado. This is why I'm so concerned about tomorrow night for Mississippi as severe threat could be quite significant and needs to be taken seriously. Mississippi might end up being the hardest hit location of all during this outbreak given the environment they're in.
We hope for the best, but prepare for the worse tomorrow.
Jim
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