Question: Tue Severe Wx

[jkt21787]

Hello,
I was wondering about the potential of severe weather in Memphis for Tuesday. The NWS here is saying expect a line of thunderstorms with high winds, which seems reasonable, but Jackson's office (as been noted here already) is talking about a widespread and damaging tornado outbreak. The models suggest a low topped squall line with little instability so the supercell threat would seemingly be diminished. Do any of you think any tornado threat will reach all the way to Memphis?

Thanks in advance for any responses.

[TS Zack]

I think the main threat from the main squall line is Strong Straight-Line Winds. Isolated Tornadoes can be expected also.
The main Instability will be sough of Memphis so therefore don't expect a widespread outbreak.

[SouthernWx]

While the greatest threat of intense tornadoes will be farther south, there is definitely the potential of tornado development in western Tennessee....shear profiles will be more than adequate to support supercell development, and dewpoints are progged in the 62-63° range. If that verifies, I won't be surprised to see both wind damage and tornadoes occur in Tennessee.

[jkt21787]

Thanks for your help. Definitely looks to be a wind event mostly, but shear is there so it needs to be watched. Plus, 18z models showing some higher instability values, so this area could be seeing at least a couple of tornado warnings tomorrow night if the trend holds.

Looks like the squall line will definitely be racing east as the very strong jet kicks in. A large swath of damaging winds from bow echoes in the line could very well occur.