Severe wx outbreak and snow chances today through Wednesday.

[WXBUFFJIM]

A severe weather and tornado outbreak are likely later today into tonight from east central Texas eastward through Louisiana and into Mississippi as a vigorous upper disturbance plows in from the west. Strong jet stream energy will combine with warm very moist and unstable air across east central Texas to allow for the development of tornadic supercell thunderstorms. A surface low pressure area is expected to develop over northern Texas and move east northeast throughout the afternoon. A trailing cold front will extend from San Antonio northward to Waco and Dallas with a squall line likely to develop along that cold front with damaging winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes. Meanwhile a warm front will extend from north central Texas eastward into northwest Louisiana where supercells with strong to possibly violent tornadoes may occur later this afternoon.

Areas likely under the gun this afternoon and evening include the Dallas area points south and east to Waco, San Antonio, College Station, Houston, Galveston, Beaumont, Shreveport, Lake Charles, and New Orleans. By later tonight, low pressure is expected to intensify across the ARKLATEX region and into the Missouri Bootheel. A squall line is expected to trail that along the cold front across Louisiana and Mississippi with damaging wind gusts over 75 mph, hail, and isolated tornadoes. If supercells develop ahead of the line across Mississippi and parts of Louisiana, then significant tornadoes and destructive hail would be possible as well.

Tomorrow, severe weather will threaten the southeastern United States from Georgia and Alabama northward into the Carolinas while the area closer to the surface and upper low in the Ohio Valley will see a severe threat with hail, wind and isolated tornadoes.

Meanwhile expect snowfall from western central Missouri northeastward into the Chicago and Kankakee areas with possibly a few inches of slushy accumulation on Wednesday. The area where the greatest snow accumulation could occur would be across west central Missouri from Springfield to Columbia where 2-5 inches of wet slushy accumulation is a possibility and also the TX/OK Panhandle where 3-5" is possible. There could be a dusting to a slushy inch of wet snow in St Louis later tomorrow as well. This is assuming we have several hours of heavy snowfall. A winter storm warning is up for the TX/OK Panhandle and also a winter storm watch is in effect for southwest and central Missouri for 2-5" of snow. Some isolated higher amounts are possible in that area. This means areas from St Louis north and west need to keep an eye on this for tomorrow as it could be rough for thanksgiving holiday travelers.

A dangerous life threatening severe wx event is likely later today into tonight from east central Texas eastward to Louisiana and Mississippi. Folks in this area should have a severe weather plan in place. A NOAA WX Radio placed on alert mode is also a good advice. Also for folks that want to subscribe to notify on weather.com, do it, it could save your life in the affected areas. Below is the link to sign up for this special service.

http://www.weather.com/services/notify. ... from=onair


Jim

[Yankeegirl]

When is Houston going to get a winter storm???