Including wx247's area ...
Garrett ... ETA/GFS are indicating rain changeover to snow, POSSIBLY accumulating up to winter storm criteria (for your area) which I believe ranges from about 3"-6" ...
SF
On the other side of the SVR WX event ... Winter Storm Poss.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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Stormsfury
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wxguy25
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The deformation zone should set up from SW MO to just North of STL and into IL. In that area the heaviest accumulations will occur. EVERYONE will start as RA and change to SN as the 850mb low moves off to the SE of the region and the flow turns NE over the region on the backside of it.
12z ETA BUFKIT sounding at UMN would suggest a changeover to SN between 12z and 15z. In the meantime…there will be the potential for mixing w/ IP or a period where P-type is intensity driven.
CSI banding will be favored w/ good low level frontogenesis and high UVM in place so there will be higher lollipops over the region. Boundary layer temps, snow growth and ratios are in question so I would be hesitant to go w/ high end amounts even though the ETA gives the region nearly 1.00” of liquid that under a 10:1 ratio would be 10 inches.
So my call is for 4-6 Inches (locally 7-8) 25-40 miles either side of a line from Jasper, MO to Quincy IL.
12z ETA BUFKIT sounding at UMN would suggest a changeover to SN between 12z and 15z. In the meantime…there will be the potential for mixing w/ IP or a period where P-type is intensity driven.
CSI banding will be favored w/ good low level frontogenesis and high UVM in place so there will be higher lollipops over the region. Boundary layer temps, snow growth and ratios are in question so I would be hesitant to go w/ high end amounts even though the ETA gives the region nearly 1.00” of liquid that under a 10:1 ratio would be 10 inches.
So my call is for 4-6 Inches (locally 7-8) 25-40 miles either side of a line from Jasper, MO to Quincy IL.
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