Tornado Watch #903

[PurdueWx80]

In effect for Louisville and Cincinnati metro areas until 7:00 p.m.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0903.html

The surface low is now down to 989 mb and is still dropping rather rapidly...MUCH lower than the 995 or so advertised by the models. What this basically means is that winds ahead of it are going to be stronger than forecast, which only adds to the shear necessary to spin up a tornado. Sun is warming things up close to 70 here now...storms don't look too bad yet but they are developing along the cold front, and on a pre-frontal trough about 50 miles ahead of the front.

[PurdueWx80]

It looks to me the best chance for tornadoes would be along and north of the Ohio river...up to the warm front, where winds are still out of the SE. South of Louisville, winds are switching to the SW, which lessens the tornadic threat. Keep in mind, there can still be winds upwards of 80 mph in the thunderstorms once they tap in to the low-level jet.

[michaelwmoss]

SPC thinks the tornado threat is a little higher now even farther North with any discrete storm that develops:

...OH/TN RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
SURFACE LOW NOW MOVING INTO SWRN IND IS DEEPER THAN MODELS FORECAST
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING SLOWLY NWD AHEAD OF IT FROM JUST SOUTH OF
IND NEWD TO NORTH OF DAY AND CMH INTO CENTRAL OH. LOW EXPECTED TO
TRACK NEWD ALONG THIS WARM FRONT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS CENTRAL KY/MIDDLE
TN. ATTM...INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL AND HAS STRUGGLED TO
MAINTAIN UPRIGHT UPDRAFTS WITHIN EXTREME SHEAR. HOWEVER...FURTHER
HEATING AND STRONG PRESSURE FALLS/BACKED BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AHEAD
OF LOW CENTER MAY ALLOW A FEW ERECT UPDRAFTS TO PERSIST LATE TODAY
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. TORNADO THREAT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY
SUSTAINED STRONG THUNDERSTORM GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW AND DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS
EVOLVE INTO SMALL LINES/BOW ECHOES...AS THEY RACE NEWD AT 40-50 KT.
SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AS STORMS APPROACH THE WRN
APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING DUE TO COOLING/STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
HOWEVER...SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY SUSTAIN SEVERE THREAT A BIT
LONGER INVOF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AHEAD OF LOW CENTER IN OH.

[michaelwmoss]

Currently in Teamspeak room if anyone would like to discuss these storms. Are not streaming at this time.

Couple of us have some clips from our broadcast overnight of the storms down in the South

[therock1811]

All I can say is this is gonna be very rough here in Cincy. I'll update this when it's all said and done.

[michaelwmoss]

Looks like a confirmed touchdown in Fayette County In Eastern Indiana over by Connersville.

No reports of injuries though

[michaelwmoss]

Talk about weird. At 5pm, it was snowing in Lafayette

Just in Johnson County here alone at 5pm: 42 here in New Whiteland(Northern Johnson County). 15 miles down the road in Ninevah 65!! (Southern Johnson County) Talk about a tight-squeeze warm sector. No wonder there was one big storm that has been producing those tornadoes.

[therock1811]

Yeah it all missed here and for that I'm grateful but I feel sorry for those who experienced these 2 tornadoes. BTW yes they have confirmed 2 tornadoes.

[michaelwmoss]

Any info on what they were on the F Scale?